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Paul Goldschmidt
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 5:47 pm    Post subject: Paul Goldschmidt Reply with quote

I think with his 28th homer last night, goldie deserves his own thread.

So real question here, who thinks this guy is legit?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where is he hitting all of these HRs again?

I have no idea if he is "legit" or not.

Talk to me after he gets some ABs in a non launching pad.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/

1.19 HR factor??????????
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Justin
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or pees in a cup.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Or pees in a cup.


Confused
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Justin
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Justin wrote:
Or pees in a cup.


Confused


Oh, don't act like steroids hasn't tarnished the game. I want him to be tested before I say he is the next great power hitter.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Provided he is clean, I do think Goldsmith is the real deal. I hope to see him in a Dbacks uniform in the future.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wasnt accusing him of anything other than playing in a park that inflates stats.

You know they test for steroids (yeah, i know, no HGH) in the minors right?
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
You know they test for steroids (yeah, i know, no HGH) in the minors right?

http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?p=388348&highlight=hgh#388348
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
You know they test for steroids (yeah, i know, no HGH) in the minors right?

http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?p=388348&highlight=hgh#388348


Well, that too - but some obvious concerns about the effectiveness of the testing. Either way, my point still stands.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
I wasnt accusing him of anything other than playing in a park that inflates stats.

You know they test for steroids (yeah, i know, no HGH) in the minors right?


Why are you so defensive all of the time? I didn't accuse you of saying anything. I was just saying I hoped his numbers were legit.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
I wasnt accusing him of anything other than playing in a park that inflates stats.

You know they test for steroids (yeah, i know, no HGH) in the minors right?


Why are you so defensive all of the time? I didn't accuse you of saying anything. I was just saying I hoped his numbers were legit.


Defensive? I was just confused - they test for Steroids in the minors - and HGH now. I think its safe to assume he got tested sometime in the last year or so.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just don't think the park factors play THAT much of a factor when your hitting that many homers. Take away 10 of them, and he still has a lot.
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allstar
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he is a real deal.
He did it in rookie level although he was a little old for the level.
He did it in the A ball even with the park factor that's a lot.

I think he will challenge Brandon Allen for that starting first baseman job.
Maybe by in another year.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

MLE:
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS
0.216 0.254 0.355 0.609

Laughing

Sorry guys. The guy has "promise" (see levskis sig) - i will give you that - but we need to see some plate discipline - or the power will never translate.

We have to start learning our lesson around here. Power doesnt translate if you dont control the strike zone. We have been there done that...
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
I just don't think the park factors play THAT much of a factor when your hitting that many homers. Take away 10 of them, and he still has a lot.


Well, park factors are one.... having a terrible k / bb rate sure doesnt help you use the power you show in the low minors.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Paul Goldschmidt tied the Minor League lead by blasting his 29th homer and added three singles to finish with four RBIs as Visalia outslugged Lancaster, 14-10, on Wednesday...

An FYI here

Former CAL league HR Champs

2009 - Jonathan Gaston - 35 - This year 7 in AA for HOU
2008 - Chris Carter - 39 - 52 HRs so far in 2009-10 in AA + AAA for OAK
2007 - Tommy Everidge - 26 - 56 HRs in last 3 yrs in AA + AAA for HOU
2006 - Brandon Burgess - 26 - Last played in 2008, fizzled out in AA
2005 - Brandon Wood - 43 - .181 10 HR in 146 games in MLB w LAA since 07

Take that for what its worth....either way, Goldie is having a fantastic year, and is on a historic pace....with about 40 games to play he has 29 HRs and since 2005 only 5 guys have hit 30 or more in a Cali season...
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 6:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, here are the updated 2010 CAL Park Factors...hard to read but Visalia's park has the 4th lowest HRs this year in the league

2010 CALIF Park Factors

Team 1B 2B 3B HR SO BB
High Desert +0.04 +0.01 +0.00 +0.02 -0.01 +0.01
Lancaster +0.02 - 0.01 +0.00 +0.02 -0.02 -0.00
Stockton -0.01 - 0.01 -0.01 +0.01 +0.01 -0.00
Bakersfield -0.01 +0.02 -0.01 +0.00 -0.02 -0.00
San Jose -0.02 - 0.01 +0.00 +0.00 -0.00 -0.01
Rancho +0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00
Visalia -0.01 +0.01 -0.00 -0.01 +0.02 +0.00
Modesto +0.02 +0.01 +0.00 -0.01 +0.02 +0.01
Inland Em -0.01 -0.01 +0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01
Lake Elsinore -0.01 +0.01 -0.00 -0.02 +0.01 +0.01


Goldshmidt has 14 HRs at home and 15 on the rd
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohdbacks wrote:
Also, here are the updated 2010 CAL Park Factors...hard to read but Visalia's park has the 4th lowest HRs this year in the league

2010 CALIF Park Factors

Team 1B 2B 3B HR SO BB
High Desert +0.04 +0.01 +0.00 +0.02 -0.01 +0.01
Lancaster +0.02 - 0.01 +0.00 +0.02 -0.02 -0.00
Stockton -0.01 - 0.01 -0.01 +0.01 +0.01 -0.00
Bakersfield -0.01 +0.02 -0.01 +0.00 -0.02 -0.00
San Jose -0.02 - 0.01 +0.00 +0.00 -0.00 -0.01
Rancho +0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00
Visalia -0.01 +0.01 -0.00 -0.01 +0.02 +0.00
Modesto +0.02 +0.01 +0.00 -0.01 +0.02 +0.01
Inland Em -0.01 -0.01 +0.01 -0.01 -0.00 -0.01
Lake Elsinore -0.01 +0.01 -0.00 -0.02 +0.01 +0.01


Goldshmidt has 14 HRs at home and 15 on the rd


Thats interesting data i suppose - but something doesnt look right if they are all .01... usually parks have more impact one way or another... Maybe its sample size.

What does 2009 look like? Usually, you have to use 3 year averages on this stuff - just to get enough sample size.

I KNOW WHATS GOING ON HERE. This table is comparing parks WITHIN the cal league to each other. So - since just about ALL of the cal league parks are launching pads - well - there isnt much difference between them. But if you compare these parks to other parks on the east coast - or southern league - or wherever - you will see a MUCH bigger differnce.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ohdbacks wrote:
Paul Goldschmidt tied the Minor League lead by blasting his 29th homer and added three singles to finish with four RBIs as Visalia outslugged Lancaster, 14-10, on Wednesday...

An FYI here

Former CAL league HR Champs

2009 - Jonathan Gaston - 35 - This year 7 in AA for HOU
2008 - Chris Carter - 39 - 52 HRs so far in 2009-10 in AA + AAA for OAK
2007 - Tommy Everidge - 26 - 56 HRs in last 3 yrs in AA + AAA for HOU
2006 - Brandon Burgess - 26 - Last played in 2008, fizzled out in AA
2005 - Brandon Wood - 43 - .181 10 HR in 146 games in MLB w LAA since 07

Take that for what its worth....either way, Goldie is having a fantastic year, and is on a historic pace....with about 40 games to play he has 29 HRs and since 2005 only 5 guys have hit 30 or more in a Cali season...


Trust me, im not taking anything away from the guy. His power numbers look great. Unfortunately, (as if you couldnt tell), i am very jaded on power numbers in the low minors, in the cal league, without good plate discipline. I have serious doubts (confirmed by the MLE models) that he could translate this power to the majors at his current rate of K/BB in A ball. If he improves his "eye" and continues show power like this in AA - we can talk... until then - A ball cal league stats like this wont do much for me either way. To be honest - I dont think he is ready to go to AA.

Edit - I think Goldschmidt is taking the brunt of my frustration here - but i think there is a bigger point. We need an organizational philosophy change - and to me it starts in A ball. The message SHOULD be that power numbers are fine - but if you cant avoid strike outs, and control the strike zone - you cant advance. We need guys who know how to not make outs. The beer league softball style isnt working.
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Colt-Back
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the point qudjy is making regarding the park that Goldshmidt plays in putting a bit of doubt as to his real capability. I would extend to the league that Goldshmidt is playing in, the Cal League, which is notoriously and extreme hitters league.

However i dont think its fair to question whether Goldshmidt is clean or not before you believe his numbers. Minor league drug testing is so extensive and regular that any potential users are caught. Id be very surprised if a player who has come through the minors in the past 3 years or so is found to be using steroids at a later stage. The likelihood of users not being caught is extremely unlikley. For that reason i believe all players should be given the benefit of the doubt here.

In terms of Goldshmidt's performance's i think he's having a very good season along with his fellow destroyer Marc Krauss but in Goldy's case im worried about his big strikeout numbers. What we do know is that he has showcased his massive power everywhere he's been from highschool to University of Texas, Missoula and now Visalia. His track record in that department is excellent. He really does need to work on his strikeout ratio though as his numbers in that department are ugly.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Colt-Back wrote:
He really does need to work on his strikeout ratio though as his numbers in that department are ugly.


Thats all im saying. Thank you.

None of that power can be used if he swings at balls outside the strike zone. Id rather have someone with "average" power who swings at only strikes. Controlling the strike zone is what we should be praising.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with your wait and see apporach for Goldschmidt.
But it's exciting to see his power display.
It's fun to see him, Krauss, and Wheeler along with Perez and Marte hit.

Does this make the pitchers in Cal league with good numbers very good?
Like Chase Anderson and Charles Brewer are pitching well.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

allstar wrote:
I agree with your wait and see apporach for Goldschmidt.
But it's exciting to see his power display.
It's fun to see him, Krauss, and Wheeler along with Perez and Marte hit.

Does this make the pitchers in Cal league with good numbers very good?
Like Chase Anderson and Charles Brewer are pitching well.


Everyone loves the HR. We need to change the way we think as an organization - and not care as much about OPS, and more about OBP.

I agree with the pitching part. If you can get good results in that league - thats certainly something that would open my eyes a little more. I dont know much about those guys - but i would be willing to bet that the guys who succeed in that league get ground balls or alot of Ks.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chase Andersons K rate per 9 is 10.5. 4.38 k/BB 1.0 WHIP. I can see why that would translate to success ANYWHERE.

Brewer - not quite as obvious. Decent 8.3 K rate... 1.24 WHIP but lower ERA. My guess is ground ball pitcher. Yeah - 1.37. Probably getting a little lucky.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Chase Andersons K rate per 9 is 10.5. 4.38 k/BB 1.0 WHIP. I can see why that would translate to success ANYWHERE.

Brewer - not quite as obvious. Decent 8.3 K rate... 1.24 WHIP but lower ERA. My guess is ground ball pitcher. Yeah - 1.37. Probably getting a little lucky.


Brewer was very good in the MWL earlier in the year but im also more impressed with Chase Anderson's numbers. He has an attacking approach from the vid i saw of him and he does attack the zone a lot and i love seeing in that in a young pitcher. Well done to the both of them though we dont have many pitching propsects doing well so plaudits where they are due.
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