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2011 Payroll Speculation Thread
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:36 am    Post subject: 2011 Payroll Speculation Thread Reply with quote

So I thought we should get an annual update going, although I don't have the cool table that Qudjy and TAP made last year.

Since Kendrick and Hall are so intent on building a winner at all costs, and totally aren't about making money at all, it seems we are going to reduce payroll to 60MM.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/rushing_for_haren_could_sabotage_ibvshAIQqUIPxI8xFLoWFO/1

Quote:
The Diamondbacks, according to a person familiar with their thinking, want to get to a $60 million payroll for 2011, which motivates their urgency to deal Haren now.

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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah - i will update it sometime in the near future - how about after the trade deadline!
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic tonight wrote:
We’ve seen it reported in a couple of places that the Diamondbacks are going to be cutting their payroll and CEO Derrick Hall confirmed it this evening, shortly after the Dan Haren trade was announced.

“I think it’s going to decrease,” Hall said. “To what level, I’m not sure. We’re going to do what we need to do. There’s also going to be some pieces that we’re going to have to go out and get like a closer next year. We’re going to have to spend a little.”

The payroll was close to $80 million at the beginning of this season, but that’s gone down with the approximate $1.8 million they’re saving in this trade and the $1.5 million they saved when they dealt OF Conor Jackson.

They’re going to be shedding OF Eric Byrnes ($11 million), RHP Brandon Webb ($8.5 million), RHP Chad Qualls ($4.185 million), RHP Aaron Heilman ($2.15 million) and, most likely, 1B Adam LaRoche ($4.5 million).

I’ve got them down for $30 million committed for next year, not counting arbitration raises to C Miguel Montero, SS Stephen Drew, 2B Kelly Johnson and LHP Joe Saunders. I imagine they should be able to find a trading partner if they eat $2 million-$3 million of C Chris Snyder’s $5.75 million contract – either in the coming days or in the off-season -- so that’s a little more they’ll probably save.

So with the arbitration raises, dealing Snyder, and the rest of the league-minimum salary players, they’re somewhere in the neighborhood of $55 million-$58 million for 2011, as far as I can tell. (Take that with a grain of salt; that’s sort of my late-night quick-and-dirty guesstimate.)

Hall says he envisions the team going after a closer and one other bullpen arm. We’ll see how much they have to spend to get those pieces.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic tonight wrote:
We’ve seen it reported in a couple of places that the Diamondbacks are going to be cutting their payroll and CEO Derrick Hall confirmed it this evening, shortly after the Dan Haren trade was announced.

“I think it’s going to decrease,” Hall said. “To what level, I’m not sure. We’re going to do what we need to do. There’s also going to be some pieces that we’re going to have to go out and get like a closer next year. We’re going to have to spend a little.”

The payroll was close to $80 million at the beginning of this season, but that’s gone down with the approximate $1.8 million they’re saving in this trade and the $1.5 million they saved when they dealt OF Conor Jackson.

They’re going to be shedding OF Eric Byrnes ($11 million), RHP Brandon Webb ($8.5 million), RHP Chad Qualls ($4.185 million), RHP Aaron Heilman ($2.15 million) and, most likely, 1B Adam LaRoche ($4.5 million).

I’ve got them down for $30 million committed for next year, not counting arbitration raises to C Miguel Montero, SS Stephen Drew, 2B Kelly Johnson and LHP Joe Saunders. I imagine they should be able to find a trading partner if they eat $2 million-$3 million of C Chris Snyder’s $5.75 million contract – either in the coming days or in the off-season -- so that’s a little more they’ll probably save.

So with the arbitration raises, dealing Snyder, and the rest of the league-minimum salary players, they’re somewhere in the neighborhood of $55 million-$58 million for 2011, as far as I can tell. (Take that with a grain of salt; that’s sort of my late-night quick-and-dirty guesstimate.)

Hall says he envisions the team going after a closer and one other bullpen arm. We’ll see how much they have to spend to get those pieces.


so what nick is saying in a nice way...

meet your 2011 dbacks.... shittier than the 2010 dbacks
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
so what nick is saying in a nice way...

meet your 2011 dbacks.... shittier than the 2010 dbacks


That's what happens when you replace the 7th most valuable starting pitcher over the last few years with the 52nd... out of 59.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote



Here is a rough shot at this...

Pretty yucky...

I say buh bye to Saunders and EJack.
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Oden
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I say buh bye to the 2011-13 seasons.
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Dre
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

a few quick notes...


LaRoche buyout of $1.5M if you're assuming we aren't picking up that option. No reason not to trade him this week though and relieve ourselves of that obligation.

Think $4-4.5M is a better # on Johnson... normally dont see guys double their salaries in 1 year through the arby process.

Same with Montero... $3.5M seems more in line.

I don't think we bring Heilman back. No reason to spend multiple millions on a mediocre reliever when you aren't planning on contending.


What a clusterf***
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have Saunders at 5.5, when I've seen estimations beyond 6 and even close to 7.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
a few quick notes...


LaRoche buyout of $1.5M if you're assuming we aren't picking up that option. No reason not to trade him this week though and relieve ourselves of that obligation.


I am assuming he gets traded soon.

I have made the changes to my sheet - and its still 58M. I will update occasionally as things shake out...

but i think this gives us an idea of how sucky we will be for some time.
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Dre wrote:
a few quick notes...


LaRoche buyout of $1.5M if you're assuming we aren't picking up that option. No reason not to trade him this week though and relieve ourselves of that obligation.


I am assuming he gets traded soon.

I have made the changes to my sheet - and its still 58M. I will update occasionally as things shake out...

but i think this gives us an idea of how sucky we will be for some time.


Why would the team trade it's best SP...I thought they were contending?
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Tucson DBacks Fan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The team sucks, so management decides to spend less money on it. This will make the team less costly for ownership, but I can't see how cutting salary is a good way to improve a horrible team. Perhaps they don't want to throw away good money on a team whose short term prospects are so bad.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tucson DBacks Fan wrote:
The team sucks, so management decides to spend less money on it. This will make the team less costly for ownership, but I can't see how cutting salary is a good way to improve a horrible team. Perhaps they don't want to throw away good money on a team whose short term prospects are so bad.


I think thats exactly it. They need to start over and get a real GM in here who can build from bottom up.
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misterx
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point it is "very unlikely" that the Dbacks trade Stephen Drew or Mark Reynolds.

Dbacks concentrating on moving Qualls, Snyder, LaRoche and Johnson although moving all four is "highly unlikely" via Gambo's twitter
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


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Dre
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

misterx wrote:
At this point it is "very unlikely" that the Dbacks trade Stephen Drew or Mark Reynolds.

Dbacks concentrating on moving Qualls, Snyder, LaRoche and Johnson although moving all four is "highly unlikely" via Gambo's twitter


Qualls has no value anymore and we won't offer arbitration even if he would somehow hold onto Type B status.

Snyder's value is killed because of his contract. We either give him up for nothing or pay a good chunk of it and get mediocrity in return.

Johnson has value since his 2011 contract # is very reasonable for the production he'll provide.

Same with LaRoche, ideally you'd find a trade partner who plans on picking up his fair 2011 option. A team planning on doing that obviously will value him higher than a team looking at him for just a 2+ month rental.

MLBTR just had a blurb on a EJax 3 way with Wash/ChiSox. Hell at this point might as well blow it up real good.
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kelly Johnson might be worth whatever it'll cost in Arbitration to keep him. He's restored his value, and if he can be anywhere close to productive next season, he'll jump into Type B status for sure, and anything better than that could sneak him into Type A status after 2011.

Might be something to keep an eye on.

Right now, Laroche is NOT a Type A/B player, so the same could be said of keeping him too. The team will just have to decide whether another year of Laroche and POSSIBLE compensation is greater than whatever they could get in a trade for him now.
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Dre
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:


Right now, Laroche is NOT a Type A/B player, so the same could be said of keeping him too. The team will just have to decide whether another year of Laroche and POSSIBLE compensation is greater than whatever they could get in a trade for him now.


No reason to waste $7.5M on LaRoche for a team cutting payroll and planning to finish in the NL West cellar in 2011. Pay Allen 400K and let him play everyday, see if he pans out or not.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EvilJuan wrote:
I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...


But wouldn't that money go largely into paying off all of the debts NOT attributed to the payroll. Vender costs, promotions, operation?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...


But wouldn't that money go largely into paying off all of the debts NOT attributed to the payroll. Vender costs, promotions, operation?


Yeah - but theres also Vendor sales, Advertising, merchandize, etc....

I think EJs rough estimate makes sense - unless there is something we are missing.

I do think they are going to re-invest some of this in farm team - and draft next year.

The next GM has a hell of a job ahead.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...


But wouldn't that money go largely into paying off all of the debts NOT attributed to the payroll. Vender costs, promotions, operation?


I did say it was simplistic...

But it also ignores other revenue sources beside ticket sales: parking; concessions, TV/radio rights, sponsorship agreements, MLB revenue-sharing, etc, etc, etc... Yes, there are expenses beyond the cost of the roster - but without a quality team on the field, why is anyone going to part with the price of a ticket?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EvilJuan wrote:
baldmaga wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...


But wouldn't that money go largely into paying off all of the debts NOT attributed to the payroll. Vender costs, promotions, operation?


I did say it was simplistic...

But it also ignores other revenue sources beside ticket sales: parking; concessions, TV/radio rights, sponsorship agreements, MLB revenue-sharing, etc, etc, etc... Yes, there are expenses beyond the cost of the roster - but without a quality team on the field, why is anyone going to part with the price of a ticket?


I can't help but to think this is going to hurt All Star attendance too. When is the last time an ASG was held at a team's home during such a traumatic rebuilding process?
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This team will make money next year before they sell one ticket.

They had record revenues of $166 million last year. While that will go down this year Im betting they hit the $150 mark.

The TV deal they have with FSA is one of the better ones in baseball and goes until 2014. I think I read and Nick had it at $32 million a season.

This team doesnt have to be good again until that deal is up.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EvilJuan wrote:
I did post this in another thread, but it applies here, as well.

Sell 15,000 tickets/game at an average price of $50/ticket over the course of 80 games, and you have $60 million. I realize there's more involved than that; but I find the "we have to reduce payroll" mantra to be less than credible...

So when the D-backs current 2 consecutive years in the cellar stretches to 5 years and attendance drops below 10,000/game, will we be subjected to "Diamondbacks are moving" stories?
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