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2010 Elections

 
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 1:02 pm    Post subject: 2010 Elections Reply with quote

If this thread already exists, I didn't see it. Might I suggest (is this a futile request in a political thread?) that we keep posts in this thread rational and respectful?

To get it rolling...

Obama's latest battle: Pelosi vs. Gibbs
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Hank
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is time to fire up the bi-annual election thread!

My not so scientific projection--Republicans gain more than 50 seats in the House and retake that Chamber, but the Democrats hold the Senate, although Republicans gain 5 or so seats.

At the state level, the Republicans end up with about 32 Governorships and make gains in controlling Legislatures, which is probably the underreported story of the season. Congressional redistricting is right around the corner, and the state legislatures and governors generally control that process, so if the Republicans have a good year this year, they can help cement a strong position in Washington for the rest of the decade.

This shapes up to be an ugly year for Democrats, which may be good news for Obama, since he then has two years to work his image and forge his re-election against what appears to be pretty weak Republican opposition in 2012.

In Arizona, the Republicans have a good year. Brewer is elected easily, McCain is reelected, and the Republicans take back 2 house seats, most likely from Mitchell and Giffords. Whoever emerges from the District 3 Republican primary holds that seat.

With economy continuing to suck. I don't see much in the next few months that will change the narrative in favor of Democrats. Even if the economy starts to dramatically turn, it probably would be next year before people really start to notice.
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rational and respectful might be asking too much... Embarassed

I'm unsure as to whether or not Gibbs should have said that enough seats are in play for the GOP to take the House. Midterm elections almost always heavily favor the minority party. They are usually more pissed off and motivated. The Democratic Party needs to keep their people motivated so a little fire is needed.

As for what's coming, I don't think the GOP will take the House, 50 seats is just a lot. Five seats is reasonable for the Senate.

Redistricting is such a ridiculous process. We have the technology nowdays to take all human bias out of it yet we still allow partisans to draw the maps. How does that make sense? Why can't we just set up a program that uses population data to draw the boundaries?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:

Redistricting is such a ridiculous process. We have the technology nowdays to take all human bias out of it yet we still allow partisans to draw the maps. How does that make sense? Why can't we just set up a program that uses population data to draw the boundaries?


Would never work in the U.S.... where politicians' main priority is always to hold on to their phoney baloney jobs.
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Hank
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

moviegeekjn wrote:
matt wrote:

Redistricting is such a ridiculous process. We have the technology nowdays to take all human bias out of it yet we still allow partisans to draw the maps. How does that make sense? Why can't we just set up a program that uses population data to draw the boundaries?


Would never work in the U.S.... where politicians' main priority is always to hold on to their phoney baloney jobs.


The US Supreme Court has a role, too. The Voting Rights Act requires that Districts be drawn in a way to guarantee minority representation, which requires a fair amount of gerrymandering. Thus, it is technically impossible to redistrict based on computer program.

Also, of course, even where there are allegedly nonpartisan redistricting commissions, like in Arizona, the party in the majority is going to do all it can to help itself. Thus, the result is that you get a few very Democrat districts in Arizona, frequently where minority candidates will get elected, and Republicans are overrepresented in remaining Districts. That is why the current makeup of the Arizona house delegation is so surprising.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
I'm unsure as to whether or not Gibbs should have said that enough seats are in play for the GOP to take the House. Midterm elections almost always heavily favor the minority party. They are usually more pissed off and motivated. The Democratic Party needs to keep their people motivated so a little fire is needed.

As for what's coming, I don't think the GOP will take the House, 50 seats is just a lot. Five seats is reasonable for the Senate.


Respected pollsters on both sides of the aisle have previously indicated that enough seats are in play to potentially swing the House. Gibbs, with Obama's blessing, was probably trying to fire a shot to the Democrat base to get out and get motivated so that the House is not lost.

The reason I think the Republicans retake the House are:

1. The Democrats have had several good elections in a row and are holding many House seats they normally would not hold. Thus, they are playing a lot of defense.

2. The economy sucks, and the incumbent party takes the blame for that, rightly or wrongly.

3. The tea parties are a very motivated force on the Republican side. Democrats seem kind of down.

4. The 2008 elections rode to a decent degree on black and young voter support for Democrats, and black votes should be expected to decrease markedly without Obama on the ballot. Young voters tend not to vote much in mid-terms.

5. Several respected pollsters, including Democrat pollsters, have come out with generic ballot questions lately showing the Republicans ahead on the generic ballot. If the Republicans are within 3 on that question, they usually will win big, since Republican voters vote more than Democrats do, and with Republicans leading, and in some Republican polls by as much as 7 to 10 points in the generic ballot, there appears to be a huge wave out there that could easily swamp 50 seats. If the perfect storm erupts, 70 or 80 seats could be in play (but I think the Democrats' cash advantage will hold that number down quite a bit).

6. Independents are trending Republican in a fairly large way in this election according to all of the polling I am seeing.

7. Anecdotally, the country appears to like divided government, and in the last 25 years, neither party has done all that well at controlling the House, the Senate and the White House at the same time.

There just isn't much good news out there for Democrats right now, and the structural advantage is all Republican. The combination of those factors, coupled with the enormous unpopularity of Congress, makes this a very tough cycle for the Democrats.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I generally agree with you. Yes there are enough seats in play but a 50 seat swing requires teh GOP win nearly every seat in play. That has to seem difficult.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
I generally agree with you. Yes there are enough seats in play but a 50 seat swing requires teh GOP win nearly every seat in play. That has to seem difficult.


Well, that is why I wanted to put it out there. I may well be wrong, and I can look like an idiot the morning after the election. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just don't see the tea party crowd having that large an effect in the upcoming elections. For the most part, the candidates they are picking are too far to the right for centrists. Harry Reid should be getting hammered, but he's hanging in there because his opponent is a nut job. And then there's the primary election for the congressional seat in Alabama yesterday:

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) A mainstream Republican rolled past a tea party activist Tuesday in the GOP runoff for a southeast Alabama congressional seat that Republicans hope to reclaim.

Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby was drawing 60 percent in the unofficial count in the 2nd Congressional District GOP runoff Tuesday against Rick Barber, a former Marine who operates a Montgomery pool hall that hosts tea party meetings.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Gibbs was stating something that has been obvious for a while. I don't think the GOP is as close as everyone thinks to retaking the House, but Gibbs would sound like a fool if he said there was no chance of a Republican takeover.

And as others have pointed out, they had better tell their base that there is a chance of a republican takeover anyway to make sure they are motivated.

My prediction for november as of right now would be: the Republicans net about 30 seats but fail to take the House, and they only pick up 4 or5 seats in the Senate, with Christ winning in FL and caucusing with the democrats.

I think the tea party movement might actually help the Democrats on election day.

For example, Harry Reid should send a huge basket of flowers to the Tea Party for nominating Sharon Angle. They may have single handedly saved his seat for him. There are Republicans in Nevada who are lining up behind Reid because they are so concerned about Angle's views. I know the Republican mayor of Reno said he would actively campaign for Harry Reid.

The same goes for Rand Paul in KY, though I think he has more support throughout the State, and obviously KY is much more conservative than Nevada. I think his rigid stances on things like the war in afghanistan and social security could hurt him.

Should be a very interesting election season.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
I just don't see the tea party crowd having that large an effect in the upcoming elections. For the most part, the candidates they are picking are too far to the right for centrists. Harry Reid should be getting hammered, but he's hanging in there because his opponent is a nut job. And then there's the primary election for the congressional seat in Alabama yesterday:

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) A mainstream Republican rolled past a tea party activist Tuesday in the GOP runoff for a southeast Alabama congressional seat that Republicans hope to reclaim.

Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby was drawing 60 percent in the unofficial count in the 2nd Congressional District GOP runoff Tuesday against Rick Barber, a former Marine who operates a Montgomery pool hall that hosts tea party meetings.


I'm not pointing necessarily at Tea Party backed candidates per se. I think the tea parties (there are bunches of groups with widely divergent views) are more a proxy for conservative leaning enthusiasm in the election. Even if the tea partiers are not crazy about the Republican candidate, they seem motivated to vote, and their votes are going to go to whatever Republican is on the ballot in overwhelming numbers.

The only two major tea party candidates to my eye are Rand Paul, who is quite libertarian, and Sharron Angle, who is extremely conservative. Paul's views have been pretty well vetted, and he appears to be holding up, so I think he ends up winning comfortably unless he does something really stupid like wander off into theoretical discussions about the CRA of 1964 again.

The Nevada Republican party is trying to hide Angle until election day, because she is definitely more conservative than the electorate by a very long way. The Republicans will try to make the election a referendum on Reid, and if they succeed, she could still win, but Reid may pull that one out. You may not see Sharron Angle except in television ads for several months. If she wins, she is an almost guaranteed one termer.

In California, I think Boxer survives, but only just, and I think Whitman will beat Jerry Brown, who is as lousy a candidate as Terry Goddard is in Arizona.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YBC-Dog wrote:
I think Gibbs was stating something that has been obvious for a while. I don't think the GOP is as close as everyone thinks to retaking the House, but Gibbs would sound like a fool if he said there was no chance of a Republican takeover.

And as others have pointed out, they had better tell their base that there is a chance of a republican takeover anyway to make sure they are motivated.

My prediction for november as of right now would be: the Republicans net about 30 seats but fail to take the House, and they only pick up 4 or5 seats in the Senate, with Christ winning in FL and caucusing with the democrats.

I think the tea party movement might actually help the Democrats on election day.

For example, Harry Reid should send a huge basket of flowers to the Tea Party for nominating Sharon Angle. They may have single handedly saved his seat for him. There are Republicans in Nevada who are lining up behind Reid because they are so concerned about Angle's views. I know the Republican mayor of Reno said he would actively campaign for Harry Reid.

The same goes for Rand Paul in KY, though I think he has more support throughout the State, and obviously KY is much more conservative than Nevada. I think his rigid stances on things like the war in afghanistan and social security could hurt him.

Should be a very interesting election season.


I don't think Crist will win. It is a hard position for a guy from either party to quit his party because he is about to lose his primary and suddenly start acting like he belongs to the other party. Kendrick Meek or the other Democrat both suck, which will push some Democrats to Crist, but in the end, he probably will be as much a victim of lack of enthusiasm as was Arlen Spector in Pennsylvania. I think Rubio wins.

I think, however, that Sestak wins the seat in Pennsylvania, because Toomey is a bit too far right for Pennsylvania. I also think the Dems will pick up a seat in Ohio.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hank wrote:

I don't think Crist will win. It is a hard position for a guy from either party to quit his party because he is about to lose his primary and suddenly start acting like he belongs to the other party. Kendrick Meek or the other Democrat both suck, which will push some Democrats to Crist, but in the end, he probably will be as much a victim of lack of enthusiasm as was Arlen Spector in Pennsylvania. I think Rubio wins.

I think, however, that Sestak wins the seat in Pennsylvania, because Toomey is a bit too far right for Pennsylvania. I also think the Dems will pick up a seat in Ohio.


It worked well for Joe Lieberman. I think the key is avoiding the primary where the most partisan voters show up. A general election is a completely different ballgame.

I think you will see Democrats line up behind Crist, especially if Meek loses the primary. Even if Meek wins, I think you could see some big names come out in support of Crist.

I agree with your comments on Angle and Paul, though I predict Reid will win handily. Again, in a year as toxic as this to have Republicans in Nevada supporting the campaign of the Senate majority leader, I think it says a lot about what a lot of moderate Republicans there think of her.

I read that she actually at one point said she supported prohibition. In the state that is home to Sin City!?! She has also made crazy comments about flouride in the water, social security, the oath keepers movement, and lots of other things. I just think there is too much baggage for her to overcome once they start hammering every comment she has made --- and after listening to some of her interviews that she has done since getting the nomination, I don't think she will do herself any favors.

She actually said in an interview in late June that victims of rape and incest should "turn lemons into lemonade" and bring a pregnancy that results to term. That isn't going to help her sway moderates and independents, which are the key to winning any election.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

She actually said in an interview in late June that victims of rape and incest should "turn lemons into lemonade" and bring a pregnancy that results to term. That isn't going to help her sway moderates and independents, which are the key to winning any election.


Would she follow her own advice?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YBC-Dog wrote:
Hank wrote:

I don't think Crist will win. It is a hard position for a guy from either party to quit his party because he is about to lose his primary and suddenly start acting like he belongs to the other party. Kendrick Meek or the other Democrat both suck, which will push some Democrats to Crist, but in the end, he probably will be as much a victim of lack of enthusiasm as was Arlen Spector in Pennsylvania. I think Rubio wins.

I think, however, that Sestak wins the seat in Pennsylvania, because Toomey is a bit too far right for Pennsylvania. I also think the Dems will pick up a seat in Ohio.


It worked well for Joe Lieberman. I think the key is avoiding the primary where the most partisan voters show up. A general election is a completely different ballgame.

I think you will see Democrats line up behind Crist, especially if Meek loses the primary. Even if Meek wins, I think you could see some big names come out in support of Crist.

I agree with your comments on Angle and Paul, though I predict Reid will win handily. Again, in a year as toxic as this to have Republicans in Nevada supporting the campaign of the Senate majority leader, I think it says a lot about what a lot of moderate Republicans there think of her.

I read that she actually at one point said she supported prohibition. In the state that is home to Sin City!?! She has also made crazy comments about flouride in the water, social security, the oath keepers movement, and lots of other things. I just think there is too much baggage for her to overcome once they start hammering every comment she has made --- and after listening to some of her interviews that she has done since getting the nomination, I don't think she will do herself any favors.

She actually said in an interview in late June that victims of rape and incest should "turn lemons into lemonade" and bring a pregnancy that results to term. That isn't going to help her sway moderates and independents, which are the key to winning any election.


The Republicans screwed up by lining up behind a corrupt candidate, and the corruption came to light. They probably get what they deserve on this one.

Re Liebermann--he had a lot longer track record in a lot bluer state. Plus, I think Rubio is a much better candidate than Ned LaMont, who is sort of a left wing version of Sharron Angle in the sense that he got nominated by a very liberal slice of the Democrats' electorate. Rubio is pretty conservative, but he is a charismatic Cuban Republican in a state where that is a bonus. Plus, Jeb Bush is lined up behind him, and that is a pretty good machine to have on your side in Florida. I think it will be close, but I just think Rubio is going to sneak by.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Congress Ranks Last in Confidence in Institutions
Fifty percent "very little"/"no" confidence in Congress reading is record high
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 23, 2010 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not looking very good for Terry Goddard
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There should probably be a corollary story to Judge Bolton's ruling today that says, Judge Bolton insures Governor Brewer's election in November. The Republican base should be positively in a lather now, and she will be able to exploit the hell out of this ruling for her political advantage.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frau Brewer certain to ride the backs of illegal immigrant "issue" to governorship Crying or Very sad
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those poor Arizona constituents.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anybody but Reid, I'm voting for Angle, I could care less what she thinks; I welcome a change for senate in Nevada. I'm also not voting for Rory Reid either, I enjoy how he doesn't allow his dad to rally for him Smile. Angle is doing well in the polls and most people I know just want Reid out of office, even if you drive through Reid's beloved home town of Searchlight you'll see massive "Anyone but Reid" signs.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oregon Tea Party steals Anonymous' slogan, gets utterly pwned

http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/ctoxg/found_this_on_my_conservative_parents_fridge_it/

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.220464-Anonymous-Punishes-the-Oregon-Tea-Party

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/7/28/888292/-Anonymous-1,-Oregon-Tea-Party-0
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