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Who's the Diamondbacks top offensive prospect?

 
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Who is the diamondbacks top offensive prospect?
Brandon Allen
23%
 23%  [ 4 ]
Marc Krauss
35%
 35%  [ 6 ]
Paul Goldschmidt
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Matt Davidson
41%
 41%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 17

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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:59 pm    Post subject: Who's the Diamondbacks top offensive prospect? Reply with quote

I posted this on my blog and on snakepit, but I think this merits a discussion over here. Who (in your mind) is the Diamondbacks top offensive prospect? I think it really only comes down to four players: Brandon Allen, Marc Krauss, Paul Goldschmidt, and Matt Davidson.

I'm just going to copy and paste what i wrote about the four here:

Quote:
Going into today, left fielder Mark Krauss sports a BA/OBP/SLG of 332/392/551, with 21 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 home runs for Hi-A Visalia (California League). He has a 31:72 walk to strike out ratio. Krauss' 943 OPS ranks fourth in the California league. He's in the middle of 16 game hitting streak, and in the last 10 games he's batting 535/545/953 with 6 doubles and 4 HRs. Yeah, he's only drawn one walk in those 10 games, but that doesn't really matter when you've been hitting like Krauss. If he continues hitting like he has, he could finish the year in Mobile, and could be in the Majors some time next year, with no one really in his way in left field besides Gerardo Parra, Cole Gillespie, and Rusty Ryal. Not to mention there's no one in the minors ahead of him on the depth chart.

Third baseman Matt Davidson is probably the furthest from the majors of the four players in this discussion (Mid-A South Bend), but he is batting 288/371/486 with 23 doubles, a triple, and 10 hrs. He has a 28:75 walk to strike out ratio, that was brought down by a month where he only drew one walk. Davidson has arguably been the best player on a loaded South Bend roster.

Brandon Allen is the closest of the players in the discussion, and should be the starting first basemen for the Dbacks next season, or as soon as Adam LaRoche is traded. In addition to being the closest to the majors (AAA Reno), he also has the best strike out to walk ratio out at 42:49. Brandon Allen's season really only started in June, as he was suffering with a shoulder injury in April and May. He had an awesome June where he batted 329/487/659 with 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 6 home runs. In the last 10 games, he's batting 286/340/595 with 4 doubles and 3 homers. On the season he's batting 260/399/495 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 10 HRs.

Another first basemen, Paul Goldschmidt (Hi-A Visalia) has clearly the most power out of all the players in this group, but also has the most strikeouts. Goldschmidt is batting 298/351/582 with 24 doubles, a triple, and 22 homers, which is tied for the most in all of the minors, and his 932 OPS ranks sixth in the California league. His power is no mirage, as he hit 334/408/638 last season with 27 doubles, 3 triples, and 18 homers in 287 at bats. The one area of concern for Goldschmidt is his 28:94 walk to strike out ratio, which is worse than his 36:74 mark from last season. If Brandon Allen doesn't pan out, Goldschmidt is the next in line to get a stab at first base.

So who do you think is the best offensive prospect in the Dbacks Minors?


So who do you think is the Dbacks top offensive prospect?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Who's the Diamondbacks top offensive prospect? Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
I posted this on my blog and on snakepit, but I think this merits a discussion over here. Who (in your mind) is the Diamondbacks top offensive prospect? I think it really only comes down to four players: Brandon Allen, Marc Krauss, Paul Goldschmidt, and Matt Davidson.

I'm just going to copy and paste what i wrote about the four here:

Quote:
Going into today, left fielder Mark Krauss sports a BA/OBP/SLG of 332/392/551, with 21 doubles, 3 triples, and 14 home runs for Hi-A Visalia (California League). He has a 31:72 walk to strike out ratio. Krauss' 943 OPS ranks fourth in the California league. He's in the middle of 16 game hitting streak, and in the last 10 games he's batting 535/545/953 with 6 doubles and 4 HRs. Yeah, he's only drawn one walk in those 10 games, but that doesn't really matter when you've been hitting like Krauss. If he continues hitting like he has, he could finish the year in Mobile, and could be in the Majors some time next year, with no one really in his way in left field besides Gerardo Parra, Cole Gillespie, and Rusty Ryal. Not to mention there's no one in the minors ahead of him on the depth chart.

Third baseman Matt Davidson is probably the furthest from the majors of the four players in this discussion (Mid-A South Bend), but he is batting 288/371/486 with 23 doubles, a triple, and 10 hrs. He has a 28:75 walk to strike out ratio, that was brought down by a month where he only drew one walk. Davidson has arguably been the best player on a loaded South Bend roster.

Brandon Allen is the closest of the players in the discussion, and should be the starting first basemen for the Dbacks next season, or as soon as Adam LaRoche is traded. In addition to being the closest to the majors (AAA Reno), he also has the best strike out to walk ratio out at 42:49. Brandon Allen's season really only started in June, as he was suffering with a shoulder injury in April and May. He had an awesome June where he batted 329/487/659 with 6 doubles, 2 triples, and 6 home runs. In the last 10 games, he's batting 286/340/595 with 4 doubles and 3 homers. On the season he's batting 260/399/495 with 12 doubles, two triples, and 10 HRs.

Another first basemen, Paul Goldschmidt (Hi-A Visalia) has clearly the most power out of all the players in this group, but also has the most strikeouts. Goldschmidt is batting 298/351/582 with 24 doubles, a triple, and 22 homers, which is tied for the most in all of the minors, and his 932 OPS ranks sixth in the California league. His power is no mirage, as he hit 334/408/638 last season with 27 doubles, 3 triples, and 18 homers in 287 at bats. The one area of concern for Goldschmidt is his 28:94 walk to strike out ratio, which is worse than his 36:74 mark from last season. If Brandon Allen doesn't pan out, Goldschmidt is the next in line to get a stab at first base.

So who do you think is the best offensive prospect in the Dbacks Minors?


So who do you think is the Dbacks top offensive prospect?


I would say Allen - as the other three aren't out of A ball.

This is pretty sad if this is the best prospects we have. No offense to any of them - but when your BEST prospects are still in A ball - you have problems.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't be surprised if Krauss and/or goldschmidt are in AA before the end of the season though, qudjy.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if Krauss and/or goldschmidt are in AA before the end of the season though, qudjy.


Thats fine - if they hit in AA, than i might change my mind. Until then - its just California league hitting stats - which mean slightly more than nothing to me.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have you seen krauss and golschmidt's numbers from south bend? they hit there too. I doubt that the southern league is going to be much of an obstacle.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
Have you seen krauss and golschmidt's numbers from south bend? they hit there too. I doubt that the southern league is going to be much of an obstacle.


I want to see it first.

I also think we shouldnt be rushing these kids up anymore. I want them learning strategy and finer points of game in the minors. When to hit the cutoffs, etc.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauss. No doubt in my mind.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, those are valid points. They shouldn't be rushed, but it looks like Krauss and Goldschmidt don't have much left to prove in the California league.

I think the biggest thing that worries me about Goldschmidt is his strikeout to walk ratio.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
Krauss. No doubt in my mind.


Based on A ball (Visalia) stats. Have we not learned our lesson? Not sayin the guy sucks or anything - just that the altitudes of those parks inflate offense.

Minor league park factors.

These are from 2008 - but you get the idea. Take a look at visalia. lol...
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Easy. Davidson.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
Have you seen krauss and golschmidt's numbers from south bend? they hit there too. I doubt that the southern league is going to be much of an obstacle.


Goldschmidt never played in South Bend.

And the jump from Visalia to Mobile does present an obstacle. The jump from A ball to AA ball is the biggest jump besides the jump from the minors to the majors. The Cal league is also a hitters league whereas the SL is much more pitcher friendly/neutral.

If the guy is legit, like Upton or Reynolds were, the jump won't be much of an obstacle. But the A ball to AA jump provided obstacles for Jon Zeringue, Jamie D'Antona, Chris Rahl, Cyle Hankerd, etc.

Even Miguel Montero struggled badly in his first attempt at AA, and he was a much better prospect than Krauss or Goldschmidt.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I forgot that goldschmidt played in Missoula last year. I think krauss and goldschmidt aren't exactly mirage when they have the 4th and 6th highest ops in their league, not to mention the fact that goldschmidt is tied with the most hrs in the minors
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At the moment id have to agree with Gudjy and go with Allen because it is still far too early to gauge the projections of Krauss, Davidson, Goldshmidt, Borchering, Owings etc.

I would like to point out that though we are seeing the results of poor drafting from 06-08 making our upper minor league talent look disgraceful the Missoula, South Bend, Yakima and Visalia all have some top notch prospects at each respective level largely due to an excellent 09 draft. This bodes well for the future but the key is to ensure quality depth is continously added through good drafts in '10 and '11 as well as some activity in the international free agency period where so far we seem to be keeping shtum.

If you look at the best farm systems in the country at the moment, Rangers and Braves, you will see that the strength of their farm system is that they have a good balance of talent created by some good drafts and really good selections in the IFA. Players like Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino (though he was acquired in a trade he is originally a product of the IFA) and Randall Delgado are the type of high ceiling beef up a Braves system that already has solid talents. We have solid talents too but need to take some of these risks other franchises (not necessarily big market teams either including Pirates and Athletics) take by increasing our activity in the IFA.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
I forgot that goldschmidt played in Missoula last year. I think krauss and goldschmidt aren't exactly mirage when they have the 4th and 6th highest ops in their league, not to mention the fact that goldschmidt is tied with the most hrs in the minors


I just hope we dont make the same mistakes. We have alot of guys who are homer/k who cant control the strike zone because they have gotten alot of congrats for SLG in the minors parks that artificially inflate power numbers.

Its insane. We need people on base. And to me, i no longer trust anything that comes out of visalia. Nothing. Once we see something in AA - i will call a guy a prosepect. Until then - they are just longshots / Lottery tickets.

The Mindset has to fucking change in this org. HRs and Power numbers are great - but we need people who dont make outs. We need people who are unselfish enought to learn how to hit singles and take walks vs swinging for tucson regardless of situation. Eveyone hates productive outs, but there is a time for it.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even though this is about top offensive prospects, I really wish we had taken a pitcher last year instead of Pollock. It would've made the '09 draft perfect instead of great.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
Even though this is about top offensive prospects, I really wish we had taken a pitcher last year instead of Pollock. It would've made the '09 draft perfect instead of great.


I agree... Shelby Miller was taken 2 picks later... damn...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/news/story?id=4246340#1
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Jdub wrote:
Krauss. No doubt in my mind.


Based on A ball (Visalia) stats. Have we not learned our lesson? Not sayin the guy sucks or anything - just that the altitudes of those parks inflate offense.

Minor league park factors.

These are from 2008 - but you get the idea. Take a look at visalia. lol...


It has more to do with me not being a fan of Allen's. Reno inflates numbers a lot too. And Krauss is the best prospect IMO, not that he's an amazing prospect.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
Jdub wrote:
Krauss. No doubt in my mind.


Based on A ball (Visalia) stats. Have we not learned our lesson? Not sayin the guy sucks or anything - just that the altitudes of those parks inflate offense.

Minor league park factors.

These are from 2008 - but you get the idea. Take a look at visalia. lol...


It has more to do with me not being a fan of Allen's. Reno inflates numbers a lot too. And Krauss is the best prospect IMO, not that he's an amazing prospect.


True - but at least its AAA pitching.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Jdub wrote:
Even though this is about top offensive prospects, I really wish we had taken a pitcher last year instead of Pollock. It would've made the '09 draft perfect instead of great.


I agree... Shelby Miller was taken 2 picks later... damn...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2009/news/story?id=4246340#1


I wish we had a "grow the pitchers, buy the bats" approach. No free agent pitcher wants to come to Arizona, and every hitter wants their numbers inflated by coming here.

And we could've taught our draftees how to be groundball pitchers in the minors.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
I wish we had a "grow the pitchers, buy the bats" approach. No free agent pitcher wants to come to Arizona, and every hitter wants their numbers inflated by coming here.

And we could've taught our draftees how to be groundball pitchers in the minors.

Pitchers that live here like to pitch here (Randy Johnson comes to mind). That's one of the reasons Dan Haren gave recently for wanting to stay here.

Overall I don't think that's a bad approach you suggest though.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wish we had a "grow the pitchers, buy the bats" approach. No free agent pitcher wants to come to Arizona, and every hitter wants their numbers inflated by coming here.

And we could've taught our draftees how to be groundball pitchers in the minors.

Pitchers that live here like to pitch here (Randy Johnson comes to mind). That's one of the reasons Dan Haren gave recently for wanting to stay here.

Overall I don't think that's a bad approach you suggest though.


Yeah, but how many good pitchers live here? Not many in their prime.

And IIRC, Haren moved here when he was traded, not before.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
TAP wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wish we had a "grow the pitchers, buy the bats" approach. No free agent pitcher wants to come to Arizona, and every hitter wants their numbers inflated by coming here.

And we could've taught our draftees how to be groundball pitchers in the minors.

Pitchers that live here like to pitch here (Randy Johnson comes to mind). That's one of the reasons Dan Haren gave recently for wanting to stay here.

Overall I don't think that's a bad approach you suggest though.


Yeah, but how many good pitchers live here? Not many in their prime.

And IIRC, Haren moved here when he was traded, not before.

I'm sure he wanted to GTFO of Oakland.
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