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How the Diamondbacks got here... and where should they go?
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
With the internets does anyone still read USAT's Sports Weekly which used to be called Baseball Weekly?

Would love to get a copy into D Hall and K Kendricks hands.

Great cover story on Angels owner Arter Moreno. The more I read it the more pissed off I got.

"I don't know where all of you thought this franchise was, but from now on we consider ourselves a big market franchise and we will conduct ourselves accordingly." -- Arte Moreno

This thing changes when ownership changes. Either in their attitude on how to conduct business or in the selling of the team.

If I hear one more time from any DBACK official that they are a small level, mid level market team Im done. You either compete or go home. You are a Major League baseball team in a Major league market. Its time to act like it.

Arte has developed a regional team in southern cal and he is about to pick up one more fan here in the southwest. With his ties to Tucson he could go into that market and kick the DBACKS ass right now.

Im sure DBACKS execs will be heading over to the BIG A to see how to run an All-Star game in a couple of days. Here is hoping they pick up a few ideas on how to run a franchise!


I can guarantee to you that if Moreno owned the D'Backs, we would not have a 121MM payroll.
We'd probably be in the same spot we are now.
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:

I can guarantee to you that if Moreno owned the D'Backs, we would not have a 121MM payroll.
We'd probably be in the same spot we are now.


Your right no way we would have a $121 payroll but no way in HELL we would be in the same spot we are now.

Arte got rid of the EXCUSES in Anaheim. This team here is full of them and until they change that we will stay the same.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Management's problems lie in the fact that they allowed the GM and Manager/Director of Dev. to not hold players accountable and to let the farm system not produce major league ready players.
Injuries are part of any team but not having ready pieces to fill in is not. Good teams have developed a constant supply of servicable replacement parts to handle that problem.
Good teams produce players who are well grounded in the fundamentals of playing the game and who have an organizational standard of how to play their positions. The big league manager then holds his players accountable for adhereing to that standard.
Good teams have GMs who make smart trades based on good evaluation to fill any holes. It is easier when you have a big budget but not impossible. Just look at Minnesota as an example of how to succeed in a mid market environment.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
Jdub wrote:

I can guarantee to you that if Moreno owned the D'Backs, we would not have a 121MM payroll.
We'd probably be in the same spot we are now.


Your right no way we would have a $121 payroll but no way in HELL we would be in the same spot we are now.

Arte got rid of the EXCUSES in Anaheim. This team here is full of them and until they change that we will stay the same.


The Angels are 4 games above .500... with a 121MM payroll. Take 50MM of that away, and I'd say they would be worse than us.
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
THE SHADOW wrote:
Jdub wrote:

I can guarantee to you that if Moreno owned the D'Backs, we would not have a 121MM payroll.
We'd probably be in the same spot we are now.


Your right no way we would have a $121 payroll but no way in HELL we would be in the same spot we are now.

Arte got rid of the EXCUSES in Anaheim. This team here is full of them and until they change that we will stay the same.


The Angels are 4 games above .500... with a 121MM payroll. Take 50MM of that away, and I'd say they would be worse than us.


Go read the article. Moreno spent money to make money so he can now have a larger payroll. He took a team that was in awful shape losing $20 million a year, with low market value and built them up.

The Angels have been built to contend year after year. The DBACKS have been built to?

When do you think this team will win again?

And do you think they have the people in place to make it happen anytime soon?

If you do god bless you. Me I see 2013 and thats not playoffs thats a maybe .500 record.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
Jdub wrote:
THE SHADOW wrote:
Jdub wrote:

I can guarantee to you that if Moreno owned the D'Backs, we would not have a 121MM payroll.
We'd probably be in the same spot we are now.


Your right no way we would have a $121 payroll but no way in HELL we would be in the same spot we are now.

Arte got rid of the EXCUSES in Anaheim. This team here is full of them and until they change that we will stay the same.


The Angels are 4 games above .500... with a 121MM payroll. Take 50MM of that away, and I'd say they would be worse than us.


Go read the article. Moreno spent money to make money so he can now have a larger payroll. He took a team that was in awful shape losing $20 million a year, with low market value and built them up.

The Angels have been built to contend year after year. The DBACKS have been built to?

When do you think this team will win again?

And do you think they have the people in place to make it happen anytime soon?

If you do god bless you. Me I see 2013 and thats not playoffs thats a maybe .500 record.


So you think that Arte Moreno could make this team a contender with pretty much a 60MM payroll (with all the deferred salaries being paid off)? I doubt it. His own team isn't even a contender, and it's payroll is twice ours.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You really think Moreno would have only a 60million$ payroll?
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
You really think Moreno would have only a 60million$ payroll?


ValueArb on 10/08/09 wrote:
Yea, he really outspent us.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Rank.html

Angels 2008 revenue $200M player expenses $119M (59.5%)
DBacks 2008 revenue $165M player expenses $97M (58.7%)

We know that Arte isn't competitive enough to kick in $22M out of his own pocket for payroll in 2008, because he didn't do it in LA. And if he owned the DBacks he would have been handcuffed by the same deferred contracts as the Kendrick group is. Instead he bought a team with a potential fan base at least double the Diamondbacks (14M in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, 4M in Phoenix Metro area), giving him more revenues, and without the legacy debts, enable him to spend more.


Wink
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ahem, Los Padres.
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DBWS08
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just got back from a long assignment in Europe, man, the soccer fever over there had made all the sports hoopla in the US pale in comparison. I've also come to the sad conclusion that the US is really not the center of the world.

To get back to this thread, here is what I've come to blame for the pathetic stage of our beloved Snakes:

1. Kendrick, the idiot
2. JB's numerous blunders
3. The biggest blunder, Valverde
4. The total collapse of Qualls & Company
5. Webb's surgery (the baseball gods didn't look out for us)
6. Upton and Reynolds didn't live up to hype
7. AJ
8. DH

So, where do we go from here? A new ownership.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DBWS08 wrote:
I just got back from a long assignment in Europe, man, the soccer fever over there had made all the sports hoopla in the US pale in comparison. I've also come to the sad conclusion that the US is really not the center of the world.

To get back to this thread, here is what I've come to blame for the pathetic stage of our beloved Snakes:

1. Kendrick, the idiot
2. JB's numerous blunders
3. The biggest blunder, Valverde
4. The total collapse of Qualls & Company
5. Webb's surgery (the baseball gods didn't look out for us)
6. Upton and Reynolds didn't live up to hype
7. AJ
8. DH

So, where do we go from here? A new ownership.


Way to early still to say he didn't live up to the hype. He isn't even 23 yet. He was brought up to early and unnecessarily in the 2007 season.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
DBWS08 wrote:
I just got back from a long assignment in Europe, man, the soccer fever over there had made all the sports hoopla in the US pale in comparison. I've also come to the sad conclusion that the US is really not the center of the world.

To get back to this thread, here is what I've come to blame for the pathetic stage of our beloved Snakes:

1. Kendrick, the idiot
2. JB's numerous blunders
3. The biggest blunder, Valverde
4. The total collapse of Qualls & Company
5. Webb's surgery (the baseball gods didn't look out for us)
6. Upton and Reynolds didn't live up to hype
7. AJ
8. DH

So, where do we go from here? A new ownership.


Way to early still to say he didn't live up to the hype. He isn't even 23 yet. He was brought up to early and unnecessarily in the 2007 season.


i agree, but....
they both have to start improving...
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


The only reason Reynolds got called up in 2007, was Barden and Ojeda were both on the AAA DL at the time of the Chad Tracy injury.

I agree, Valverde shouldn't have even been in that post.

As for Upton, I thought I remmember hearing that he was due for a September call up in either 2008 or 2009, with the later being more likely?
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


I agree, Valverde shouldn't have even been in that post.

As for Upton, I thought I remmember hearing that he was due for a September call up in either 2008 or 2009, with the later being more likely?


Right. September call up in '09 IIRC, with '10 being his first full year.
Either way, his career has been very, very impressive so far.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


potential is limitless, i agree... but i would love to see improvement (more consistant)
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


potential is limitless, i agree... but i would love to see improvement (more consistant)


I don't think there is a single 22 year old in the MLB that is consistent...
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matt
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


What? Qualls outperformed JV every year? JV has pitched 165 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 88 saves since leaving AZ.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


What? Qualls outperformed JV every year? JV has pitched 165 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 88 saves since leaving AZ.


Asinine to say trading Valverde was a blunder... we got Qualls and Gutierrez for him and saved cash on a limited payroll team.

2008/09

Valverde 126 IP 2.93 ERA 144 ERA+
Qualls 125.2 IP 3.15 ERA 147 ERA+

So we sacrificed 1 out and got a better pitcher, throw in Gutierrez's pre 2010 performance and its an even bigger win.

If letting Valverde go was such a big blunder they had ample opportunity to get him back in the offseason and couldn't due to <wait for it> the same payroll constraints that forced us to trade him in the 1st place. $70M payroll teams don't spend $6M+ on closers, its just not feasible.

You can criticize some moves by JB, but the Valverde trade is pages down the list.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


What? Qualls outperformed JV every year? JV has pitched 165 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 88 saves since leaving AZ.


Again, this year is irrelevant because Valverde isn't with the Astros.
And using ERA for reliviers isn't very good.

Valverde with Houston:
2008: 72 IP, 3.38 xFIP
2009: 54 IP, 3.92 xFIP (with a low BABIP)

Qualls with Arizona:
2008: 73 IP, 2.93 xFIP
2009: 52 IP, 2.86 xFIP

Yeah, Qualls has outperformed Valverde.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Valverde does lead the league in fairy dances though, perennial fairy all star.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
matt wrote:
Jdub wrote:
I wasn't aware Reynolds had "hype."
And J-Up wasn't even expected to reach the majors until 2010 when he was drafted, so he's ahead of what he was expected to be. .899 OPS at age 21? Sign me the hell up for that. His potential is limitless. We wont even see the real J-Up until age 25 or so.

EDIT: Also, how was Valverde a blunder...? Qualls outperformed him every year. Oh yeah, Valverde isn't even on the Astros anymore, so this year is irrelevant. Trading Valverde away has absolutely nothing to do with the current state of the Diamondbacks.


What? Qualls outperformed JV every year? JV has pitched 165 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 88 saves since leaving AZ.


Again, this year is irrelevant because Valverde isn't with the Astros.
And using ERA for reliviers isn't very good.

Valverde with Houston:
2008: 72 IP, 3.38 xFIP
2009: 54 IP, 3.92 xFIP (with a low BABIP)

Qualls with Arizona:
2008: 73 IP, 2.93 xFIP
2009: 52 IP, 2.86 xFIP

Yeah, Qualls has outperformed Valverde.


First of all, you are neglecting this year. Second, Qualls was our closer for most of that time and he blew 28% of the save ops from 2008-2009. Valverde blew 14% of his save ops from 2008-2009. Qualls has been a terrible closer and that has been consistent here in AZ.

Furthermore, trading JV away meant starting the season with Lyon as the closer. Lyon and Qualls blew a combined 13 games and took the loss in in a combined 13 games. We finished the year 2 games back from LA. Do the math, with JV on the team we likely make the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

Finally, if we hadn't traded JV we would have had a better chance at keeping him when he became a free agent. He got a 2-yr deal for $14M, a bargain deal for a top closer.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
First of all, you are neglecting this year. Second, Qualls was our closer for most of that time and he blew 28% of the save ops from 2008-2009. Valverde blew 14% of his save ops from 2008-2009. Qualls has been a terrible closer and that has been consistent here in AZ.

Furthermore, trading JV away meant starting the season with Lyon as the closer. Lyon and Qualls blew a combined 13 games and took the loss in in a combined 13 games. We finished the year 2 games back from LA. Do the math, with JV on the team we likely make the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

Finally, if we hadn't traded JV we would have had a better chance at keeping him when he became a free agent. He got a 2-yr deal for $14M, a bargain deal for a top closer.


Qualls blew 14% of his save opps because he pitched in the set up role for the majority of the time. Not the closer's role. You can only blow saves in that role, you can't get a save without pitching the ninth.
And Lyon nor the playoffs has anything to do with it. You disagreed with me about Qualls outperforming Valverde. He has.

About neglecting this year, I'll say it a third time: THIS YEAR IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE VALVERDE IS NOT WITH THE ASTROS.

But fine if you wanna look at it. 30.1 IP, 3.48 xFIP.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 2:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
matt wrote:
First of all, you are neglecting this year. Second, Qualls was our closer for most of that time and he blew 28% of the save ops from 2008-2009. Valverde blew 14% of his save ops from 2008-2009. Qualls has been a terrible closer and that has been consistent here in AZ.

Furthermore, trading JV away meant starting the season with Lyon as the closer. Lyon and Qualls blew a combined 13 games and took the loss in in a combined 13 games. We finished the year 2 games back from LA. Do the math, with JV on the team we likely make the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

Finally, if we hadn't traded JV we would have had a better chance at keeping him when he became a free agent. He got a 2-yr deal for $14M, a bargain deal for a top closer.


Qualls blew 14% of his save opps because he pitched in the set up role for the majority of the time. Not the closer's role. You can only blow saves in that role, you can't get a save without pitching the ninth.
And Lyon nor the playoffs has anything to do with it. You disagreed with me about Qualls outperforming Valverde. He has.

About neglecting this year, I'll say it a third time: THIS YEAR IS IRRELEVANT BECAUSE VALVERDE IS NOT WITH THE ASTROS.

But fine if you wanna look at it. 30.1 IP, 3.48 xFIP.


You're using xFIP wrong. It's usefulness is for predicting the future. We have actual results for looking at the past.

You are correct on the blown saves, however, they still represent actual leads coughed up by Qualls and he coughed up a lot of them.

The playoffs are absolutely relevant. The team was weaker and the difference between him and his replacement more than makes up the 2 game difference between us making the playoffs and going home.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 13, 2010 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
You're using xFIP wrong. It's usefulness is for predicting the future. We have actual results for looking at the past.


While yes, it should predict the future, but it also tells how good you were in the past, negating BABIP and bad defense. It is HR/FB adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. Predicting the future isn't all it does.

Quote:
You are correct on the blown saves, however, they still represent actual leads coughed up by Qualls and he coughed up a lot of them.


Qualls has also compiled blown saves in situations that are other pitcher's messes. So that number is inflated by a few blown saves, at least. And Valverde has only blown two less than him over that time.

Quote:
The playoffs are absolutely relevant. The team was weaker and the difference between him and his replacement more than makes up the 2 game difference between us making the playoffs and going home.


No, they really aren't. Again, the statement was "Qualls has outperformed Valverde." That is true. There was no mention of the playoffs in there. I wasn't disputing that.

But fine, I will. Qualls in 2008: 8 blown saves. Valverde: 7. We ended 2 games back. And again, Qualls number is most likely inflated.

And that's not even considering that the Dodgers lost 3 of their last 4 in 2008 resting their players, and would most likely not have lost those last three games if they weren't (they were against the 99 loss Padres and 90 loss Giants) resting for the playoffs. So yeah, Qualls isn't the reason we lost the division.
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Leads/ties blown by the Diamondbacks bullpen in '10: 31
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