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How the Diamondbacks got here... and where should they go?
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TAP
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Warhorse wrote:
The "bullpen" schtick is getting old. Just sayin'...

Facts are facts. Just sayin'...
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Dylan wrote:
DBACKSHEELSPANTHS wrote:


Could this have something to do with the starters being overworked? Seems to me like the starters are being left out there a little too long due to the bullpen struggles. I have nothing to back this up stats wise...it just SEEMS like sometimes the starters get left out a little too long and runs get added on when normally they wouldn't. I could be completely wrong here. Wink


I don't have all of the numbers in front of me but a piss poor bullpen can adversely affect the starters ERA two fold:

The amount of pitches gets too high by being stretched, which leads to runs in late innings. I know that the AZ Republic wrote about 4 of our starters being in the top 60 in number of pitches.

The relievers having huge inherited runners scored credited to the starters pitching line. (Anyone have this handy?)

The AZ bullpen has allowed 38 of 85 inherited runners to score this year. Only a small handful of those inherited runners were onbase from prior relievers; the bulk of them were added to starter's ERAs based on bullpen failure.


Thanks TAP, I honestly had no idea how the bullpen was performing regarding IRs, but that is rather piss poor at an almost 1 out of 2 runners scoring.

In regards to Warhorse's POV, maybe we can see the numbers of IR for all pitching staffs and where the DBacks starters compare. Are they leaving a large amount of ROB?
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TAP
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dylan wrote:
TAP wrote:
Dylan wrote:
DBACKSHEELSPANTHS wrote:


Could this have something to do with the starters being overworked? Seems to me like the starters are being left out there a little too long due to the bullpen struggles. I have nothing to back this up stats wise...it just SEEMS like sometimes the starters get left out a little too long and runs get added on when normally they wouldn't. I could be completely wrong here. Wink


I don't have all of the numbers in front of me but a piss poor bullpen can adversely affect the starters ERA two fold:

The amount of pitches gets too high by being stretched, which leads to runs in late innings. I know that the AZ Republic wrote about 4 of our starters being in the top 60 in number of pitches.

The relievers having huge inherited runners scored credited to the starters pitching line. (Anyone have this handy?)

The AZ bullpen has allowed 38 of 85 inherited runners to score this year. Only a small handful of those inherited runners were onbase from prior relievers; the bulk of them were added to starter's ERAs based on bullpen failure.


Thanks TAP, I honestly had no idea how the bullpen was performing regarding IRs, but that is rather piss poor at an almost 1 out of 2 runners scoring.

In regards to Warhorse's POV, maybe we can see the numbers of IR for all pitching staffs and where the DBacks starters compare. Are they leaving a large amount of ROB?

D-backs bullpen is 2nd worst in the NL in IS% at 45%.

Only three teams in the NL have left less IRs for their bullpen to "clean up" than the D-backs. They're 4th best in the league at not leaving IRs for their bullpen.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2010-reliever-pitching.shtml#teams_reliever_pitching
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So despite Warhorses irritation and ad hoc suggestions to the starters, they seem to be carrying more than their share of the pitching weight and it is in fact more bullpen issues.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I pointed out ...

You can't just look at the IRS PERCENTAGE.

The percentage is high, worst in baseball....but the total number of IRS is only a little bit more than league avg.

The average team in the NL has allowed 31 Inherited runners to score. We've allowed 38. 4th most in the NL.

If you want to take away anywhere from 7-10 Inherited runners from our total, it would improve our starters ERA, (Even though not all those inherited runners would be from our starters...but you get the point)

But 7-10 runs is....well....7-10 runs. Not insignificant, but not really a very large number either now....is it ?
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dylan wrote:
ValueArb wrote:
shoewizard wrote:


Our starters ERA (4.74) is 15th in the NL. and they've allowed the most HR in the league

AZ 69
Phil 59
Mil 49


Except that our starters lead the league in HR/FB ratio, which is a clear sign they've been very unlucky this year.



How does this mean the starters have been unlucky? I don't follow the logic.


It's typically thought that a big part of abnormal HR/FB rates are due to luck, i.e. balls that stay in or go out due to circumstances outside the pitchers control, such as what direction the fly ball is hit, the park they are pitching in that day, the ability of the defense to corral balls just over the fence, and even the weather. I.e. an average fly ball is an average fly ball for most pitchers, so they should go out at roughly the same rate depending upon park.

The entire staff is at 12.8% this year, by far the worst in baseball. The starters are 12.4%, league average is probably about 9% this year. Now due to playing half our games in chase, we should give up a smidge more HRs per flyball, but last year the staff was 10.3%, the year before 9.9%.

Now it could be this years staff is just getting crushed, and giving up lots of deep flyballs, but not so many shorter flyballs. But it's very curious that all of the starters in aggregate have this problem, when most have been better in the past. Kennedy was good at suppressing HRs in the minors, and better with the Yankees than here. Haren was very good for a few years when he came here, but got worse last year and now.

Lopez is around his career average, Jackson is only .6% higher, but that seems bigger than expected given he just switched from the tougher league and faces pitchers now instead of the DH.

Some of it may be earned from Chase and being flyball pitchers, some may be due to fatigue at the end of those long starts, but I think some if it is simple bad luck. I just don't think pitchers over the long run can be good at suppressing poorly hit flyballs but give up hard hit flyballs at a high rate.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2010 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Again, a major point has been missed here.

Our starting pitching Fly Ball rate is too high to begin with. We are giving up too many fly balls in the first place. 39.5% ranks second highest in the NL, only behind Giants.

Also, we have the 4th highest line drive rate allowed by starting pitchers, and the 4th lowest IF/F (popup rate) and the second lowest ground ball rate among starters.

What this all means is that the QUALITY OF CONTACT is too high, (from the hitters perspective. Think about it..... a lot of fly balls and line drives, far too few ground balls and popups. Our starters are getting hit fairly hard as a group. And the result is the 2nd highest starters ERA in the league.
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
As I pointed out ...

You can't just look at the IRS PERCENTAGE.

The percentage is high, worst in baseball....but the total number of IRS is only a little bit more than league avg.


Isn't this because our SPs are leaving less ROB for our BP to deal with than other rotations? Do they not get any credit for this mathematical fact?

shoewizard wrote:

The average team in the NL has allowed 31 Inherited runners to score. We've allowed 38. 4th most in the NL.

If you want to take away anywhere from 7-10 Inherited runners from our total, it would improve our starters ERA, (Even though not all those inherited runners would be from our starters...but you get the point)

But 7-10 runs is....well....7-10 runs. Not insignificant, but not really a very large number either now....is it ?


This is true and our SP has not been anywhere close to spectacular. Statistically four average starters and a black hole for a 5th. You can't deny those starters have been stretched a lot because either Hinch doesn't know how to manage a pitching staff or the shitty BP makes him leave in the SP too long.

2009 season total:

4th+ PA in G, as SP: 136 PAs, 91 OPS+
Pitch 101+: 231 PAs, 78 OPS+

2010 less than half season:

4th+ PA in G, as SP: 132 PAs, 123 OPS+
Pitch 101+: 145 PAs, 144 OPS+
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Isn't this because our SPs are leaving less ROB for our BP to deal with than other rotations? Do they not get any credit for this mathematical fact?


Partly. Selection bias involved here as they usually like to bring guys in for a "clean inning" whenever possible. Remember not all IR are from starters. Other teams are much more likely to bring in another reliever mid inning if a guy gives up a few baserunners....whereas our team always tries to bring in a reliever to start an inning fresh.
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Quote:
Isn't this because our SPs are leaving less ROB for our BP to deal with than other rotations? Do they not get any credit for this mathematical fact?


Partly. Selection bias involved here as they usually like to bring guys in for a "clean inning" whenever possible. Remember not all IR are from starters. Other teams are much more likely to bring in another reliever mid inning if a guy gives up a few baserunners....whereas our team always tries to bring in a reliever to start an inning fresh.


I confess I can't imagine any strategic advantage in this philosophy.

Is it a result of not trusting the BP to clean up another's mess or is there some perceived psychological advantage to BP results when starting in a "clean inning"?
The former is just another example of expecting more from our SPs and the latter is what I would call a failing strategy.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's the latter. I'll leave it to others to declare the success or failure.

In any case, we are rather off point. The amount of inherited runners left out there by the starters, whatever that number is, doesn't really indicate how well they are pitching. Things like ERA, ERA+, FIP, xFIP, WHIP, BB/K/HR, as well as the aforementioned balls in play profile are all far better things to look at to determine the performance of the staff.

They are doing OK I guess.....it could be worse. But they are barely average as a group so far,....if that. Obviously a healthy Webb would have made them above average, but it was not to be.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710


Idiot, Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Thus, first baseman Andy LaRoche and relievers Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman all potential free agents are the most likely D-Backs to be traded. The team also has been trying to move catcher Chris Snyder since last offseason.


Confused
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710


Idiot, Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Thus, first baseman Andy LaRoche and relievers Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman all potential free agents are the most likely D-Backs to be traded. The team also has been trying to move catcher Chris Snyder since last offseason.


Confused


u like ALR25 to stay?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
Jdub wrote:
NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710


Idiot, Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Thus, first baseman Andy LaRoche and relievers Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman all potential free agents are the most likely D-Backs to be traded. The team also has been trying to move catcher Chris Snyder since last offseason.


Confused


u like ALR25 to stay?


In order for us to keep Andy LaRoche, we would have to get him first.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
Jdub wrote:
NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710


Idiot, Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Thus, first baseman Andy LaRoche and relievers Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman all potential free agents are the most likely D-Backs to be traded. The team also has been trying to move catcher Chris Snyder since last offseason.


Confused


u like ALR25 to stay?


NJDBFAIL. Laughing
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

trKOR wrote:
NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
Jdub wrote:
NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/diamondbacks-trade-bait-slow-down-ken-rosenthal-070710


Idiot, Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Thus, first baseman Andy LaRoche and relievers Chad Qualls and Aaron Heilman all potential free agents are the most likely D-Backs to be traded. The team also has been trying to move catcher Chris Snyder since last offseason.


Confused


u like ALR25 to stay?


In order for us to keep Andy LaRoche, we would have to get him first.


lmao

i seriously just over looked that....

good catch
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mwmags2002
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't remember if I posted this last night or not....

My friends called the team the "cubic zirconia backs, cuz diamonds have value"....

LOL.. I had to laugh..

mwmags2002
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interim is for losers.

We need a GM and we need one now.

Teams make trades and get taken in deals when they think they have a chance for the playoffs. They are willing to sell the farm for the revenue that the Playoffs bring.

From what Ive been hearing we are not going to make too many BIG DEALS.

Dipoto is fielding calls but deals must be approved. Ive heard he has been given a list of players he can try to work out a deal on.

Waiting for a new GM is about as bad as waiting for B Webb to come back and pitch. Its puts us another six months behind on getting things done.

Why the wait?
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because the FO doesn't have a solution, they're just acting because they believe they have to.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They fired the GM at the worst possible time save for right before the draft. Now they're scrambling to make due and the team and it's fans will suffer for it. This team doesn't just need a new GM - it needs new ownership. It's turning into a side-show right along with the team on the field.
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hank wrote:

Credibility also lost because the BA struggles have very little to do with the strikeouts, which are about the same as normal for him, but his newfound propensity to pop everything up like Eric Byrnes and a 2008 version of Chris Young. Shoe put up the stats the other day. Reynolds' line drive and groundball rate suck this year, which has led to a terrible batting average on balls in play and a terrible overall batting average.



Maybe.

07: PA 414, K 129, PA/K=3.2093 avg .279, ops .843
08: PA 613, K 204, PA/K=3.0049 avg .239, ops .779
09: PA 662, K 223, PA/K=2.9686 avg .260, ops .892 (this somewhat verifies your hypothesis)
10: PA 334, K 116, PA/K=2.8793 avg .218, ops .811

career: PA 2023, K 672, PA/K=3.0104, avg .251, ops .834

Edited to add some statistical comparisons:

Top 5 all-time strikeouts:

R.Jackson: PA 11,416 K 2597, PA/K=4.3958, avg .262, ops .846
J.Thome: PA 9625, K 2353, PA/K=4.0905, avg .277, ops .961
S.Sosa: PA 9896, K 2306, PA/K=4.2914, avg .273, ops .878
A.Galarraga: PA 8916, K 2003, PA/K=4.4513, avg .288, ops .846
J.Canseco: PA 8129, K 1942, PA/K 4.1858, avg .266, ops .867

and for S&G:

A.Pujols: PA 6450, K 612, PA/K=10.5392, .avg .332, ops 1.050
J.DiMaggio: PA 7671, K 369, PA/K=20.7886, .avg .325, ops .977
T.Williams: PA 9791, K 709, PA/K=13.8095, .avg .344, ops 1.116
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oden wrote:
They fired the GM at the worst possible time save for right before the draft. Now they're scrambling to make due and the team and it's fans will suffer for it. This team doesn't just need a new GM - it needs new ownership. It's turning into a side-show right along with the team on the field.


I believe it was necessary to fire JB, and AJ, in order to change the "organizational advocacy" philosophy, which obviously wasn't working. I've always felt the the manager must be allowed to manage without interference from the GM or ownership. If you try to hire a permanent replacement for JB at this time, you are undoubtedly dealing with a limited field of candidates vs what might be available in the off-season.
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the internets does anyone still read USAT's Sports Weekly which used to be called Baseball Weekly?

Would love to get a copy into D Hall and K Kendricks hands.

Great cover story on Angels owner Arter Moreno. The more I read it the more pissed off I got.

"I don't know where all of you thought this franchise was, but from now on we consider ourselves a big market franchise and we will conduct ourselves accordingly." -- Arte Moreno

This thing changes when ownership changes. Either in their attitude on how to conduct business or in the selling of the team.

If I hear one more time from any DBACK official that they are a small level, mid level market team Im done. You either compete or go home. You are a Major League baseball team in a Major league market. Its time to act like it.

Arte has developed a regional team in southern cal and he is about to pick up one more fan here in the southwest. With his ties to Tucson he could go into that market and kick the DBACKS ass right now.

Im sure DBACKS execs will be heading over to the BIG A to see how to run an All-Star game in a couple of days. Here is hoping they pick up a few ideas on how to run a franchise!
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
With the internets does anyone still read USAT's Sports Weekly which used to be called Baseball Weekly?

Would love to get a copy into D Hall and K Kendricks hands.

Great cover story on Angels owner Arter Moreno. The more I read it the more pissed off I got.

"I don't know where all of you thought this franchise was, but from now on we consider ourselves a big market franchise and we will conduct ourselves accordingly." -- Arte Moreno

This thing changes when ownership changes. Either in their attitude on how to conduct business or in the selling of the team.

If I hear one more time from any DBACK official that they are a small level, mid level market team Im done. You either compete or go home. You are a Major League baseball team in a Major league market. Its time to act like it.

Arte has developed a regional team in southern cal and he is about to pick up one more fan here in the southwest. With his ties to Tucson he could go into that market and kick the DBACKS ass right now.

Im sure DBACKS execs will be heading over to the BIG A to see how to run an All-Star game in a couple of days. Here is hoping they pick up a few ideas on how to run a franchise!


i got a copy on my desk.... and i will read it today
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