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Time to Rebuild?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 5:35 pm    Post subject: Time to Rebuild? Reply with quote

Its probably too early to pull the plug on 2010 - although its hard to imagine this team putting together a massive winning streak.

So, lets assume we continue on the path we are seeing now...

I think we have to consider selling off some of the pieces we have, and rebuilding. Drew, Haren, Snyder, CJ, Reynolds (?), Qualls ( Laughing ), Kelly Johnson, etc - and getting some depth back in the system, and building this back up from the ground up.

And by ground - i mean Front office and coaching first. Im not the one to evaluate what is going on over there - but if what we are seeing on the field is the result - everyone that has nything to do with coaching needs to go. NOW.

We will have the 6th pick in this draft, and i think its faily obvious we will have a high pick in teh 2011 draft.

Lets start over - without eric byrnes.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For once, I actually agree with you Q. I remember back in 2006 and 2007 hearing about how great this team was going to be in 2009 and 2010. We have now sat and waited for all this to come together for a while now. We traded 6 prospects to the As for Haren with the intention of having a Webb-Haren 1-2 punch for a couple of years. Webb's injury was unfortunate. There have been a lot of things that have gone wrong these last few years. I would say we are back to 2005 at this point.

Two votes for blowing this shit up.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should we rebuild? Yes.
Will we rebuild? No. At least not for a long while.
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Bobster
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Make it three votes for 'yes' then.

Anyone other than Reynolds and Upton should be available IMO.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should this be a poll?
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
Should this be a poll?

I think he's looking more for ideas than for votes.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Jdub wrote:
Should this be a poll?

I think he's looking more for ideas than for votes.


Yeah - i think the tally is less important than the ideas of who we get rid of, and who we keep, or if people think some small tweeks will fix this shit.

I dont think its as black and white as yes or no.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobster wrote:
Make it three votes for 'yes' then.

Anyone other than Reynolds and Upton should be available IMO.


Why not Reynolds? Keep in mind that the guys that are actually kinda good are the ones that would bring something back. With MR being signed for 3 more years - if we really rebuild - he wouldnt be around for any of it, and would be too expensive to keep long term anyway (See Ryan Howard Deal). Laroche and Johnson are easy choices to me - sell high when you can.

Obviously, youd have to get soemthing pretty damned good back in return.
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Warhorse
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thread is pretty much the same as the "Organizational Advocacy" thread Shadow started on May 10th...

The offense is good, scoring 5.22 R/G ranking 4th in the NL. Pitching is the problem, and not just the bullpen. Through 37 games, the starters have an ERA of 4.80 compared to the division leading SD Padres starters with an ERA of 2.76.

Since this organization seems to excel in FAIL when drafting, developing, or acquiring good pitchers, (without trading away the farm), I don't see things turning around anytime soon. Call me a hater if you want but I really think they need to take a long hard look at Josh Byrnes as the GM of this organization.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I think you can rebuild without selling Reynolds off to the highest bidder. That would be more of a firesale, and I dont think we are quit at that yet. If we can pull a Marlins and get a Hanley Ramirez for Lowell and Beckett (Reynolds, Haren) then I would be all for that.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Warhorse wrote:
Call me a hater if you want but I really think they need to take a long hard look at Josh Byrnes as the GM of this organization.


The minute I hear of JBs dismissal, it will be like we won the World Series all over again.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Warhorse wrote:
This thread is pretty much the same as the "Organizational Advocacy" thread Shadow started on May 10th...

The offense is good, scoring 5.22 R/G ranking 4th in the NL. Pitching is the problem, and not just the bullpen. Through 37 games, the starters have an ERA of 4.80 compared to the division leading SD Padres starters with an ERA of 2.76.

Since this organization seems to excel in FAIL when drafting, developing, or acquiring good pitchers, (without trading away the farm), I don't see things turning around anytime soon. Call me a hater if you want but I really think they need to take a long hard look at Josh Byrnes as the GM of this organization.


You know what - you are right - that thread is pretty close to this one - i just saw the end of it with the MG and EB discussion. My bad. Defer to mods on what to do.

I agree with your second part - unfortunately. There is something going on with player development - and it isnt good. We have to get better at player development. We have to. As a mid market team - our success depents on it.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
If we can pull a Marlins and get a Hanley Ramirez for Lowell and Beckett (Reynolds, Haren) then I would be all for that.


Of course - thats exactly the plan when trading someone like MR - thats really the way to get someone good back.
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Warhorse
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Justin wrote:
If we can pull a Marlins and get a Hanley Ramirez for Lowell and Beckett (Reynolds, Haren) then I would be all for that.


Of course - thats exactly the plan when trading someone like MR - thats really the way to get someone good back.


I'm not opposed to trading anyone depending on the return. However, JB choosing the return in a trade doesn't really get me excited.
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trKOR
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want to look ahead, I don't think next year actually looks bad at all. If you look at our individual performances to date this year, you'd have to like what your seeing from KJ, Drew, and CY. We're already committed financially to MR and Upton plus I figure most of us are confident they'll return to form. I'm still very high on Montero and Snyder is clearly starter material at the very least. CJ in LF is a question mark at this point, but continue playing him this year and see what happens. First base will be a question mark, too. (Bring LaRoche back?; Is Allen an answer at either LF or 1B?).

As far as the rotation, Haren is a top-flight starter and I'm confident his poor start will not last, Jackson is someone we'd have to hope can figure it out...he doesn't have much value at this point anyway, I like Kennedy a lot, then we have Parker (and Collmenter?) to look at.

The important part though is that there is about $20 million coming off the books between Byrnes and Webb, then we have 6 million(?) more if we don't bring back LaRoche, around 5 million more if we can trade Snyder, plus whatever piece of shit relievers we have that aren't going to be paid next year (idk if there are any deferred contracts that might be coming off as well). Ignoring all possible internal solutions, we'd have holes at 1B and LF, we'd probably need a 3/4 caliber SP, and we'd need to do a major overhaul on the bullpen. I think the money we'd have to spend can certainly accomplish this even with the salary increases (am I underestimating these?), and I would honestly feel like we'd be serious contenders.

I honestly don't think blowing it up would be a terrible idea, but I still feel like this team has the potential. It's so frustrating to me because I feel like even if we had merely a "below-average" bullpen, instead of a "historically piss-poor, shit-storming, hurricane" that calls itself a bullpen, we would be right in the hunt. I say take this year and evaluate what we have. Maybe we could sell a couple of parts for other major-league ready young players? But I think there are a couple guys on your list who we could still trade for a nice haul at the deadline next year if that season doesn't work out either. Maybe I'm just a wishful-thinking optimist...idk.

P.S. I agree with your point about Reynolds. If we are going to blow it up, we have to blow it all up. No use in keeping Reynolds for three years if we have no plans on contending.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most of the 20M coming off the books is used by arbitration increases or contracts that escalate. I dont think there is alot of room to maneuver with Free agents.

MLBTR talks about it here.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/2011-contract-issues-arizona-diamondbacks.html#disqus_thread

Quote:
The D'Backs must prepare for a sizeable increase to players under contract - just under $20MM total. Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton all get bumps in the $4MM range.

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trKOR
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Most of the 20M coming off the books is used by arbitration increases or contracts that escalate. I dont think there is alot of room to maneuver with Free agents.

MLBTR talks about it here.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/2011-contract-issues-arizona-diamondbacks.html#disqus_thread

Quote:
The D'Backs must prepare for a sizeable increase to players under contract - just under $20MM total. Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton all get bumps in the $4MM range.


Shit. Thats depressing. The Edwin Jackson increase is a killer; he's got to get his shit together. Well, in that case we would probably have to trade one or two of Jackson, Drew and KJ in favor of Abreu and/or Allen in order for that plan to work. We'd also probably have to fill a hole by trading Snyder. The points in my fourth paragraph still stand; I don't think we're far off.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

trKOR wrote:
I don't think we're far off.


From What?

Its not a snarky question (well - maybe a little). What are the goals as a franchise? Playoffs? If so, you might be right in this division. If its to build a team that has a real chance at a WS. Forget it - time to start over.
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levski
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dbacks don't rebuild. They reload. /snark

What is the sound of the DBacks reloading?
And would anyone be around to see/hear it?

The Dbacks should listen to trade offers, sure.
But others are not going to bend over in a trade...
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trKOR
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
trKOR wrote:
I don't think we're far off.


From What?

Its not a snarky question (well - maybe a little). What are the goals as a franchise? Playoffs? If so, you might be right in this division. If its to build a team that has a real chance at a WS. Forget it - time to start over.


Well, I feel like the franchise's goals at this point should not be a championship or bust. I would assume the goal would be postseason, and I think that's how it should be for small/mid size budget teams. With such a casual fan base that lacks a long history to fall back on, you've simply got to keep people interested. And I think we've all seen years where the best team doesn't win...maybe you get a nice draw where the juggernaut is knocked out early by someone else, maybe you're riding a couple of hot arms at the right time. I think its a little short-sighted to ignore a playoff opportunity because you probably won't win it all.

OTOH, you could definitely say that its ridiculous to be shooting for what's basically a one-year window. Like I said, I definitely wouldn't be completely opposed to a fire sale, but I think we can risk taking a chance at 2011 because we'll still have valuable parts to sell if we slip out of it next year.
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think before we do any "rebuilding" we need to take an honest look at Mel.
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matt
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PostPosted: Sun May 16, 2010 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Josh Byrnes isn't leaving. Get it out of your heads right now. His deal lasts until 2015 and he has a small ownership stake. Then again, they coughed up $11M to get flipper out....

I think CJ and Snyder are the easiest to part with but I'm not sure what they can really get. Drew is a possibility but they need someone really good in return.

They need to figure out things with LaRoche, if they don't think he'll exercise his option they should look into trading him.

Would the rest of the league believe in Kelly Johnson? Could they sell really high on him?
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PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stephen Drew for Daniel Bard? What do you guys think of that? Red Sox get a real shortstop and Stephen gets to play with his brother, plus we get a legitimate Closer who has dominated his entire time in the big leagues.
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levski
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PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

theguyonthecouch wrote:
Stephen Drew for Daniel Bard? What do you guys think of that? Red Sox get a real shortstop and Stephen gets to play with his brother, plus we get a legitimate Closer who has dominated his entire time in the big leagues.


The dumbest idea I've heard in a long long time.
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PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

theguyonthecouch wrote:
Stephen Drew for Daniel Bard? What do you guys think of that? Red Sox get a real shortstop and Stephen gets to play with his brother, plus we get a legitimate Closer who has dominated his entire time in the big leagues.


We missed the boat on Bard when we held on to Montero pre-2009.
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