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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The fire AJ stuff is pretty silly.

Some players haven't played or pitched well. AJ made an admirable comment taking blame in attempt to take the heat off those players.

The reporters covering this team don't know what good managing is or what players respond to. Sports reporters are famous for finding false correlations, which they use to fill column inches. Fried chicken made Wade Boggs a .300 hitter, etc.

AJ didn't mishandle the bullpen, there were zero options from day one, they all sucked including Heilman till his last month. And AJ has used n a good deal, closing the ninth isn't always the most critical juncture in most games, in fact it might rarely be.

Managers don't win games, players do. There is little evidence managers have big overall impact on player performance or team wins. A good manager can help make a team better, but he can't turn a bad team good or via versa.

So be results oriented. Give credit to BoMel for getting lucky one year and ignore the fact he couldn't repeat it or exceed his python again. Re-arrange deck chairs on the titanic, bring in another manager if it will make the losses easier to stomach. But don't fool yourself into thinking a single manager or GM can create a consistent first place team out of a consistent last place budget. It degrades everything from free agent acquisitions to drafting to which young players get shipped or kept.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2010 11:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
In reply to valuearb's evaluation of the Angels vs D'backs players.
1. During the same time period Lackey was a better pitcher than Webb
2. Drew is better than Aybar but not far better, they are different types of player
3. Scherzer is no longer a d'back but he is no where close to either Santana or Saunders
4. Snyder did have a few seasons better than Mathis at the plate but not recently
5. Can't claim Quentin or uggla as D'backs since all of their mlb success came elswhere


This is silly, you claimed we didn't develop a core of young players as good as the angels, when I showed we did you try to change the topic to not count players we traded. Well, guess what? A $100m payroll team has more options and can be more patient with young players. A $60m payroll team has to think about moving young players before arbitration drives their cost up.

And Scherzer has a career 106 ERA+ including an awful start to his third season he has already started to turn around. Santana's is 100, Saunders is 103, both are older, with many more innings that show them they are who they are, journeyman. scherzer struggles with innings, but neither Angel is substantially better at getting deep into games. scherzer still has the potential to be a top starter, and the Angels would have gladly traded either journeyman for him.

And Drews career OPS+ is "different" than Aybars, I.e. 94 is different than 85 in a much better way.

You can quibble over whether the angels have developed slightly more young talent than th backs, or vica versa, but the one fact that is irrefutable is that they had almost twice as much payroll to repair mistakes with. The Angels are spending over $20M on this years bullpen alone.


Quote:
Ultimately the success of the team rests on the decisions on and off the field that management makes and the current regime hasn't done the job.


You mean talk ownership into giving them another $30m to spend each year. Or find a magic elixir for Webbs arm?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 26, 2010 7:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
The fire AJ stuff is pretty silly.

Some players haven't played or pitched well. AJ made an admirable comment taking blame in attempt to take the heat off those players.

The reporters covering this team don't know what good managing is or what players respond to. Sports reporters are famous for finding false correlations, which they use to fill column inches. Fried chicken made Wade Boggs a .300 hitter, etc.

AJ didn't mishandle the bullpen, there were zero options from day one, they all sucked including Heilman till his last month. And AJ has used n a good deal, closing the ninth isn't always the most critical juncture in most games, in fact it might rarely be.

Managers don't win games, players do. There is little evidence managers have big overall impact on player performance or team wins. A good manager can help make a team better, but he can't turn a bad team good or via versa.

So be results oriented. Give credit to BoMel for getting lucky one year and ignore the fact he couldn't repeat it or exceed his python again. Re-arrange deck chairs on the titanic, bring in another manager if it will make the losses easier to stomach. But don't fool yourself into thinking a single manager or GM can create a consistent first place team out of a consistent last place budget. It degrades everything from free agent acquisitions to drafting to which young players get shipped or kept.


x2. Well said.
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 26, 2010 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well of course, but it's beside the point. The "old school" crowd has a lot of ammo by pointing at the w/l column. When considering whether to fire a manager or not, public opinion doesn't care about anything other than perception. "The team is quitting on the inexperienced manager!" The haters will be "right" if Hinch gets fired. It always comes down to winning and everyone here knows that. Arguing facts is illogical to Joe Average Fanô.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oden wrote:
Well of course, but it's beside the point. The "old school" crowd has a lot of ammo by pointing at the w/l column. When considering whether to fire a manager or not, public opinion doesn't care about anything other than perception. "The team is quitting on the inexperienced manager!" The haters will be "right" if Hinch gets fired. It always comes down to winning and everyone here knows that. Arguing facts is illogical to Joe Average Fanô.


In the long run only results matter. But in the short run results can be very deceiving. And the short run is longer than the average fan can believe.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting list for people frustrated with how much Diamondback batters strike-out.

Code:

NL Leaders in Outs Made

1.   Kemp (LAD)   246
2.   Cabrera (CIN)   233
3.   Lee (HOU)   229
4.   Headley (SDP)   228
   Phillips (CIN)   228
   Prado (ATL)   228
   Weeks (MIL)   228
8.   Morgan (WSN)   226
9.   Sandoval (SFG)   224
10.   Reyes (NYM)   222
   Victorino (PHI)   222


I was thinking this today when CY was at the plate early in the game with the bases loaded and one out. If he had struck-out instead of grounding out, it could have helped us put up a big inning..
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
An interesting list for people frustrated with how much Diamondback batters strike-out.

Code:

NL Leaders in Outs Made

1.   Kemp (LAD)   246
2.   Cabrera (CIN)   233
3.   Lee (HOU)   229
4.   Headley (SDP)   228
   Phillips (CIN)   228
   Prado (ATL)   228
   Weeks (MIL)   228
8.   Morgan (WSN)   226
9.   Sandoval (SFG)   224
10.   Reyes (NYM)   222
   Victorino (PHI)   222


I was thinking this today when CY was at the plate early in the game with the bases loaded and one out. If he had struck-out instead of grounding out, it could have helped us put up a big inning..


Thats too results oriented.. Wink

Well - i think having some part of your linup that strikes out is fine - but all of ours is prone to Ks. Its why we are all or nothing.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
ValueArb wrote:
An interesting list for people frustrated with how much Diamondback batters strike-out.

Code:

NL Leaders in Outs Made

1.   Kemp (LAD)   246
2.   Cabrera (CIN)   233
3.   Lee (HOU)   229
4.   Headley (SDP)   228
   Phillips (CIN)   228
   Prado (ATL)   228
   Weeks (MIL)   228
8.   Morgan (WSN)   226
9.   Sandoval (SFG)   224
10.   Reyes (NYM)   222
   Victorino (PHI)   222


I was thinking this today when CY was at the plate early in the game with the bases loaded and one out. If he had struck-out instead of grounding out, it could have helped us put up a big inning..


Thats too results oriented.. Wink

Well - i think having some part of your linup that strikes out is fine - but all of ours is prone to Ks. Its why we are all or nothing.


If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that. The type of outs matters less, and we tend to make outs that are usually less damaging (fly outs, strike outs) than ground ball outs.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that


Well...our team OBP is .329, which ranks 8th in NL.....But of course a League avg OBP for a team playing half their games in Chase Field should be .345
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Warhorse
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 6:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that. The type of outs matters less, and we tend to make outs that are usually less damaging (fly outs, strike outs) than ground ball outs.


While it's true that striking out prevents hitting in to a double play, striking out also has zero chance of advancing a runner. For example, assume there is a man on 2nd, or even better men on 2nd and 3rd, with one out. Would you prefer the batter to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield or strikeout? They are both outs, right.
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your example and the following question assume that the responder has a basic knowledge of the game. Too often only looking at statistics casn lead to wrong assumptions about how the game is really played.
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dbacks_Nation
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like using Right Hander, Homer Simpson, to pinch hit for Darryl Strawberry in order to "play the percentages."


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Jdub
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, playing the percentages worked, didn't it?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Quote:
If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that


Well...our team OBP is .329, which ranks 8th in NL.....But of course a League avg OBP for a team playing half their games in Chase Field should be .345


x2.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
Your example and the following question assume that the responder has a basic knowledge of the game. Too often only looking at statistics casn lead to wrong assumptions about how the game is really played.


Only if you use them wrong. Statistics are just information. Information is never bad. Using information wrong is bad.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Quote:
If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that


Well...our team OBP is .329, which ranks 8th in NL.....But of course a League avg OBP for a team playing half their games in Chase Field should be .345


Sure, but again we aren't close to leading the league in outs made at the plate/bases. It's silly to get hung up on what type of outs we make, I'd rather make fewer even if it meant more strike-outs.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 28, 2010 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Warhorse wrote:
ValueArb wrote:
If you look at the outs we make at the plate, counting double plays, and outs made stealing bases, we make fewer outs per plate appearance than most NL teams. The most important thing is to not make outs, we aren't bad at that. The type of outs matters less, and we tend to make outs that are usually less damaging (fly outs, strike outs) than ground ball outs.


While it's true that striking out prevents hitting in to a double play, striking out also has zero chance of advancing a runner. For example, assume there is a man on 2nd, or even better men on 2nd and 3rd, with one out. Would you prefer the batter to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield or strikeout? They are both outs, right.


If there is a man on first, I'd say no, if there isn't I'd say yes. If there is a man on third, a passed ball from a nasty strikeout pitch is even better than a ground ball hit to the right. But the main point is it's a minor degree of difference, strikeouts aren't the worst type of out, and the focus should be on number of outs, not the type.

On the AZ Central site on yesterdays game, there is a poster who actually ripped the team for doing poorly at "productive outs". Earl Weaver would have puked. This specific team doesn't need "productive outs", it needs fewer outs. We lead the league in extra base hits, getting the runner to 2nd or 3rd has less value on a team with so much power that it often can drive in runners from first.

We could increase our "productive outs" by sacrificing more, but that's trading an out for a base costs us opportunities for more hits and walks and baserunners and big innings. It's the wrong idea for this particular team.
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jimbo4net
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Loss of the Year candidates

Quote:
Left with gallows humor to entertain us, letís take a quick look at some of the games that might qualify as the Loss of the Year for the Diamondbacks, even with the circus music from Monday night still ringing in our ears. Let me know if Iím forgetting any. There have been so many, itís hard to keep them straight.

April 15, Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 5
April 16, Padres 6, Diamondbacks 3
April 21, Cardinals 9, Diamondbacks 4
May 14, Braves 6, Diamondbacks 5
May 31, Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
June 23, Yankees 6, Diamondbacks 5
June 28, Cardinals 6, Diamondbacks 5


Cue the circus music... Laughing
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sb24ws2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jimbo4net wrote:
Loss of the Year candidates

Quote:
Left with gallows humor to entertain us, letís take a quick look at some of the games that might qualify as the Loss of the Year for the Diamondbacks, even with the circus music from Monday night still ringing in our ears. Let me know if Iím forgetting any. There have been so many, itís hard to keep them straight.

April 15, Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 5
April 16, Padres 6, Diamondbacks 3
April 21, Cardinals 9, Diamondbacks 4
May 14, Braves 6, Diamondbacks 5
May 31, Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
June 23, Yankees 6, Diamondbacks 5
June 28, Cardinals 6, Diamondbacks 5


Cue the circus music... Laughing


My vote was April 15. That game would have clinched a 3rd straight series victory to start the season. The night before we managed to win despite Qualls blowing the game in the 9th, too. Just a downer of a game to me. The June 23 game is right up there, though. That was a microcosm of all our issues (crappy bullpen, terrible situational hitting).
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why isn't that San Francisco game up there? It was like 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th when Qualls let them tie the game, only to have them walk it off an inning or so later.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks_Nation wrote:
Why isn't that San Francisco game up there? It was like 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th when Qualls let them tie the game, only to have them walk it off an inning or so later.


There's just so many this year...April 18 vs. SD was bad (led 2-0 until we gave up 5 in the bottom of the 7th blowing a Kennedy start)...May 8 vs MIL wasn't much fun (17-3 laugher)...the entire series in LA at the beginning of June (balk game was included in the list, but we also lost 1-0 in the next two games in 10 and 14 innings).

Just pathetic how many of "those" games we have had in barely half a season. Just think: we still have 84 more games.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 30, 2010 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sb24ws2005 wrote:
dbacks_Nation wrote:
Why isn't that San Francisco game up there? It was like 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th when Qualls let them tie the game, only to have them walk it off an inning or so later.


There's just so many this year...April 18 vs. SD was bad (led 2-0 until we gave up 5 in the bottom of the 7th blowing a Kennedy start)...May 8 vs MIL wasn't much fun (17-3 laugher)...the entire series in LA at the beginning of June (balk game was included in the list, but we also lost 1-0 in the next two games in 10 and 14 innings).

Just pathetic how many of "those" games we have had in barely half a season. Just think: we still have 84 more games.

So we have a chance at a comeback?
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pete25
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jimbo4net wrote:
Loss of the Year candidates

Quote:
Left with gallows humor to entertain us, letís take a quick look at some of the games that might qualify as the Loss of the Year for the Diamondbacks, even with the circus music from Monday night still ringing in our ears. Let me know if Iím forgetting any. There have been so many, itís hard to keep them straight.

April 15, Dodgers 6, Diamondbacks 5
April 16, Padres 6, Diamondbacks 3
April 21, Cardinals 9, Diamondbacks 4
May 14, Braves 6, Diamondbacks 5
May 31, Dodgers 5, Diamondbacks 4
June 23, Yankees 6, Diamondbacks 5
June 28, Cardinals 6, Diamondbacks 5


Cue the circus music... Laughing

I'll say June 23rd, I was there and we would've won the series but the MFB (bullpen) blew it once again.
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 7:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

can we officially put the phrase "Organizational Advocacy" to rest now?
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 8:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not until JB gets the tattoo lased off his ass.
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