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D-backs 2010 Top 10 Prospects
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Zephon
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Location: Tucson, Arizona

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Was looking at some the recent drafts (2007 and 2008 were abysmal) when I saw something interesting.

Check out the Dbacks 42nd round pick in 2007

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2007&draft_type=junreg


That was an awful draft. I think i'll skip writing a review of that one.

On the other hand, i'm much more optimistic about the last draft. It's really look good so far. Look up Keith Cantwell levski.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a link to my top prospect list. Hopefully you guys don't think it sucks. Writing top prospect lists seem to be quite the challenge for me.
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few quick thoughts

On the pitcher's list: where are Josh Collmenter and Jordan Norberto?

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=pa307026&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=pa307026&position=P

Collmenter had a very good season in high A, mostly hurt by his LOB%
But his K/9 jumped to over 9, his HR rate remained low, and he's a big guy.
Major sleeper for next year... but not on your top 40 list?
Ditto for Norberto. A lefty that strikes out 11+/9 in high A/AA is worth having
In fact, there's a good reason the Dbacks added him to their 40 man roster
Similarly, Mercedes and Septimo are too low. Probably Miley and McAnaney.
I'd bumped them up a bit, above guys like Valdez and Roemer.

On the hitters, purely on potential alone, I'd bump Davidson and Helm up.
Given positional value, Owings may be the most valuable hitting prospect.
But granted, he's far far away from being ready.
And I don't really see the need for having Harbin and Cowgill that high.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 17, 2009 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I totally forgot about norberto and collmentor, that was my mistake. Orginally cowgill was going to be in the 20's, and harbin wasn't even going to be on my list, but i was convinced otherwise.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon wrote:
I totally forgot about norberto and collmentor, that was my mistake. Orginally cowgill was going to be in the 20's, and harbin wasn't even going to be on my list, but i was convinced otherwise.


good to know. thanks.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zephon,

Thanks for putting all the work into this, it was a great read and I wanted to you to know that it was appreciated.

One little nit though about your Durazo comments. If you look at league-wide HR rates, they haven't dropped much since testing began. NL HR rates were around 0.7 per game in the 70s & 80s. In the 90s they increased steadily until they reached 1.0 per game in the late 90s, and averaged about 1.1 per game during this decade before testing. The "tougher" testing started in 2005, and since then HRs are still averaging over 1.0 per game.

Unless there is a widespread use of undetectable steroids (which is hard to believe that something that effective can be in widespread use, and HGH doesn't count because it's a do-nothing placebo according to the Mitchell Report itself), it seems very likely that steroids are not biggest drivers of increased HR rates and offense in this era. Instead the bigger drivers are likely.

1) The discovery that strength training was beneficial, not harmful, to ballplayers which started in the 1980s.
2) Newer, smaller ball-parks.

Steroids are used to help players recover faster so they can train more often, which makes strength training more effective. But just lifting alone can greatly increase a players strength and explosiveness. Steroids just contributed another 5% on top of those other factors, at least if you look at HR rates.

And using huge peaks in a players performance as evidence of steroid use is highly problematic. Big Mac hit 49 HR in 150 games as a clean rookie according to Canseco, and then declined for 7 years while using steroids, also according to Canseco. The biggest poster child for steroid use based on peak performance would have to be Roger Maris, few have ever had a sudden peak and decline like his. Baseball history is littered with similar examples of guys like that even before steroids were discovered.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh, and speaking of Jewish sports legends, why does everyone always forget about this guy?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenha01.shtml
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thats the first person I think of.
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2009 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a plug for this wednesday, the last article on the pitchers will be posted, along with IHSB's top 40 prospect list, which I'll admit, is much more in depth than mine. Definately worth checking out.

ValueArb, I must admit that the the comments about Erubial Durazo was from IHSB, not me. Although, I do think the guy was shipped out because of possible steroid use. No proof, just anecdotal evidence. Thanks for the kind words though.
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Oden
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2010 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sickels is putting out his preliminary prospect lists (IOW, these are the rankings unless he hears a good argument to change a player's grade.) Here is his AZ top 20. #1 Parker, #2 Borchering...

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/1/1/1229943/arizona-diamondbacks-top-20

Quote:
3) Brandon Allen, 1B, Grade B-: I like the guy, but he was probably overhyped this summer. I see him more as a productive slugger than a future All-Star. This is the same grade I gave him last year.

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The Goat
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BP pretty much killed our system not that I agree with it. I think we have a lot of projection in the bats, just missing some high ceiling arms.
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BP not just killed the system but more importantly noted that the drafts since Rizzo left and Brynes took over have been awful. Also of note the youth in the bigs is from drafts prior to Brynes and the talent in the minors has been favored if it is from the post Rizzo regime.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
BP not just killed the system but more importantly noted that the drafts since Rizzo left and Brynes took over have been awful. Also of note the youth in the bigs is from drafts prior to Brynes and the talent in the minors has been favored if it is from the post Rizzo regime.


Josh is not selling jeans here.
Unless Eric Byrnes is wearing them.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9958
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 21, 2010 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo will be airing his Top 50 MLB prospects on MLB Network this upcoming Wednesday (1/27).
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not really sure if I should put this here.
Prospect Pollock undergoes elbow surgery

Quote:
Diamondbacks outfield prospect A.J. Pollock is expected to miss three months after undergoing successful surgery
on Friday to repair a fractured growth plate in his right elbow, his agent, Rob Martin, said Saturday.

“The good news is that it was a routine surgery,” Martin said. “There’s a 99.9 percent success rate. It’s not going to impede his ability to play at an elite level in the future.”

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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 6:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Thats the first person I think of.


not me....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greensh01.shtml
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Colt-Back
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Not really sure if I should put this here.
Prospect Pollock undergoes elbow surgery

Quote:
Diamondbacks outfield prospect A.J. Pollock is expected to miss three months after undergoing successful surgery
on Friday to repair a fractured growth plate in his right elbow, his agent, Rob Martin, said Saturday.

“The good news is that it was a routine surgery,” Martin said. “There’s a 99.9 percent success rate. It’s not going to impede his ability to play at an elite level in the future.”


Quote:
“He put his arm out to brace himself," Martin said, "and the growth plate opened up and a piece of that bone came off.


Ouch that sounds really painful. Really hoping the kid comes back from this quikly.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

D-backs 2010 organization preview
Top prospects include many from latest Draft class
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lisa should check the injury reports before writing her articles. Pollack is out for 3 months after elbow surgery and Ciriaco hasn't played yet in Tucson because of a torn ligament in his thumb.

You can't just read the baseball magazines at the drug store and write an up to date article.
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amit
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Josh Collmenter has been promoted from Visalia up to AAA Reno. He'll make his AAA debut tonight at Tacoma - http://bit.ly/aOQ9BI.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

amit wrote:
Josh Collmenter has been promoted from Visalia up to AAA Reno. He'll make his AAA debut tonight at Tacoma - http://bit.ly/aOQ9BI.


Whoa - big jump. Usually, the jump from A to AA is the biggest jump IIRC.

Hope it goes well...
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Colt-Back
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
amit wrote:
Josh Collmenter has been promoted from Visalia up to AAA Reno. He'll make his AAA debut tonight at Tacoma - http://bit.ly/aOQ9BI.


Whoa - big jump. Usually, the jump from A to AA is the biggest jump IIRC.

Hope it goes well...


It is a big jump but Collmenter was a tad old to be in single A anyway so its not a huge leap in that regard. Good move i think.
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amit
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Colt-Back wrote:
It is a big jump but Collmenter was a tad old to be in single A anyway so its not a huge leap in that regard. Good move i think.

I had expected Wes Roemer to move up to AAA, with Collmenter taking Roemer's spot in Mobile. Roemer has already made 27 AA starts, and has pitched well this year.

Reno did need a starter for tonight, though. Maybe that factored in the decision. It's Tom Layne's turn to pitch tonigh for Mobile, and he probably could use more time in AA.
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Smokey
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 30, 2010 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amit wrote:
Josh Collmenter has been promoted from Visalia up to AAA Reno. He'll make his AAA debut tonight at Tacoma - http://bit.ly/aOQ9BI.


I don't know if he's done for the evening, but through 7 innings he's given up 0 runs and 0 walks and 3 hits and struck out 8.

I found a video of him warming up before an all-star game last year and he has a painful looking delivery. Dude's rotator cuff must be made of titanium.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lUBssBXVr4
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