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Most Likely Webb Scenario
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Most Likely Webb Scenario?
Pick up $8.5M option for 2010
74%
 74%  [ 29 ]
Buy out option for $2M
10%
 10%  [ 4 ]
Work out compromise for less than $8.5M (only valid if there's actually a deal)
15%
 15%  [ 6 ]
Total Votes : 39

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DesertKnight
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:13 pm    Post subject: Most Likely Webb Scenario Reply with quote

I don't recall seeing a poll about this yet, so here goes--Pick what you think the team will do--not what they should do.

I say they pick up the option. $6.5M (they're already committed for $2M) isn't much to risk on a pitcher of Webb's caliber.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Most Likely Webb Scenario Reply with quote

DesertKnight wrote:
I don't recall seeing a poll about this yet, so here goes--Pick what you think the team [b]will do--[/b]not what they [b]should do.


Wheres the "Give Petit/DD 10mill a yr over the next 3 years" option? Laughing
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 12:24 pm    Post subject: Re: Most Likely Webb Scenario Reply with quote

DesertKnight wrote:
I say they pick up the option. $6.5M (they're already committed for $2M) isn't much to risk on a pitcher of Webb's caliber.


This makes sense.

I vote, "Aye."
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YBC-Dog
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure if you wanted us to put what we think they will do or what they should do.

I selected what I think they should do, which is pick up the option, but a part of me thinks they will not, because they haven't already done so and because of all of the conflicting rumors coming out about it.

What do they think they are going to learn between the surgery and the option date? He still won't have thrown a pitch or be fully recovered, I believe so 2010 will still be a question mark.

Why not pick up the option for your team ace (and fan favorite) and give him the peace of mind for the remainder of the season that he is secured through next season?

Why push it to the deadline at the end of the year (maybe because fans will be paying less attention 5 days after the World Series)?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JB and company are very tight lipped about all this stuff. I think the rumors are just rumors - most likely started by Webbs dipshit agent.

Im not reading anything in to rumors about Webb.

At the end of the day - Webbs health will decide if the option will be picked up.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think they compromise at $7.5M.
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup, I picked the third option.
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
I think they compromise at $7.5M.


Not a chance. Webby said on the radio its the option in full or free agency.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
ValueArb wrote:
I think they compromise at $7.5M.


Not a chance. Webby said on the radio its the option in full or free agency.


He's holding all the cards, if he does compromise I can't see him doing it by much.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
THE SHADOW wrote:
ValueArb wrote:
I think they compromise at $7.5M.


Not a chance. Webby said on the radio its the option in full or free agency.


He's holding all the cards, if he does compromise I can't see him doing it by much.


Why would he compromise?

He's not Eric Byrnes, a superstar giving the Dbacks a HUGE home team discount. Rolling Eyes
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DesertKnight
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's no reason for him to compromise. If the DBacks won't pony up $6.5M, you can bet there will be a line of teams willing to take the chance on him, and pay more for the privilege--including the Dodgers.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pick up the option, prove he is healthy, trade him mid season if we are out of contention. If we are in contention, a Haren-Webb-Scherzer rotation could take us deep into the playoffs. Of course, the rest of the rotation (Petit, Mulvey, Blackely, Augenstein, whatever JB pulls out of his ass) might negate any advantages the top 3 give us. And then there is the bullpen....
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we re-sign him there needs to be a clause that says something like "You can't pull trophy fish from the ocean at all"
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azentropy
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Assuming he is healthy it is a no brainer.

But as I have stated before I don't expect he will be. Even minor shoulder injuries have a tendency to talk longer than expected to return to full strength and be able to sustain the workload.

So I still float out there the idea of tearing up the 1 year deal offering a 2 year deal that could be beneficial to both sides.
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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

azentropy wrote:
Assuming he is healthy it is a no brainer.

But as I have stated before I don't expect he will be. Even minor shoulder injuries have a tendency to talk longer than expected to return to full strength and be able to sustain the workload.

So I still float out there the idea of tearing up the 1 year deal offering a 2 year deal that could be beneficial to both sides.
What part of " it's the option in full or free agency" is unclear to you?
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azentropy
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
azentropy wrote:
Assuming he is healthy it is a no brainer.

But as I have stated before I don't expect he will be. Even minor shoulder injuries have a tendency to talk longer than expected to return to full strength and be able to sustain the workload.

So I still float out there the idea of tearing up the 1 year deal offering a 2 year deal that could be beneficial to both sides.
What part of " it's the option in full or free agency" is unclear to you?


It is a negotiating tactic... like agents and players never come off of their first position... Rolling Eyes
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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

azentropy wrote:
levski wrote:
azentropy wrote:
Assuming he is healthy it is a no brainer.

But as I have stated before I don't expect he will be. Even minor shoulder injuries have a tendency to talk longer than expected to return to full strength and be able to sustain the workload.

So I still float out there the idea of tearing up the 1 year deal offering a 2 year deal that could be beneficial to both sides.
What part of " it's the option in full or free agency" is unclear to you?


It is a negotiating tactic... like agents and players never come off of their first position... Rolling Eyes


Because we all know the Dbacks have given so many reasons to Webb to "come off his first position"...
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

azentropy wrote:
levski wrote:
azentropy wrote:
Assuming he is healthy it is a no brainer.

But as I have stated before I don't expect he will be. Even minor shoulder injuries have a tendency to talk longer than expected to return to full strength and be able to sustain the workload.

So I still float out there the idea of tearing up the 1 year deal offering a 2 year deal that could be beneficial to both sides.
What part of " it's the option in full or free agency" is unclear to you?


It is a negotiating tactic... like agents and players never come off of their first position... Rolling Eyes


Yes, but we're talking about a guy who's a perennial Cy Young candidate who would make $8.5M from the DBacks next year. Is there any doubt that, even coming off a shoulder problem, he could get more next year from any number of teams, including the Dodgers, Yanks, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets...

Unless there's serious doubt that he could get a better offer somewhere else, there's absolutely no reason for him to budge from that position. Talk of any kind of compromise is simply wishful thinking from fans who are afraid (probably quite legitimately) that the team might not pick up the option for financial reasons.
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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DesertKnight wrote:
Talk of any kind of compromise is simply wishful thinking from the Dbacks front office


Fixed that for you
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 6.5 is not going to make a big difference next year. Are we really going get two top line pitches for the 21M or so we have to spend? It is a one year expenditure so it is not going to cripple the team long term.

Some very rough guesses, If there is a one in three chance that Webb is going to come back a full strength the Dbacks should take this bet.

Even if there is a one in two chance that he comes back by mid season as the old Brandon Webb, this is a good bet.

If it is a little better odds he comes back full season as Doug Davis plus, it is a good bet.

The key is what are the odds of(a) him coming back at all, (b) when and (c) how good will he be when (if) he comes back. With this information or guesstimates, you can make a more reasoned guess as to whether to exercise the option and what other teams will pay him.

I have some confidence the Dbacks front office knows how to do this (although a lack of confidence that they will come to the right decision). I have no confidence that Webb's agent has the ability to do this.

If Webb's agent had this ability, one might hope for a compromise of extending the contract with some security for Webb and some upside for the Dbacks. I have a fear that Webb's ship has sailed unless the Dbacks exercise the option, but hope springs eternal.

Hey, CY is hitting so be asymptomatic in your organizational advocacy.
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DesertKnight
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
DesertKnight wrote:
Talk of any kind of compromise is simply wishful thinking from the Dbacks front office


Fixed that for you


Them, too.
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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:


I have some confidence the Dbacks front office knows how to do this (although a lack of confidence that they will come to the right decision). I have no confidence that Webb's agent has the ability to do this.

If Webb's agent had this ability, one might hope for a compromise of extending the contract with some security for Webb and some upside for the Dbacks. I have a fear that Webb's ship has sailed unless the Dbacks exercise the option, but hope springs eternal.


I couldn't have said it better. If I ever need a ghost writer, I'd hire Stu. Or his cat at least.

Quote:

Hey, CY is hitting so be asymptomatic in your organizational advocacy.


Well, that'd be par for the organization, and its advocacy, which are also very asymptomatic.
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, Lev.

Another obstacle to a compromise is that Webb is more valuable to some teams with money than to the Dbacks. You add 2008 version of Brandon Webb to the Phils, MFY, BoSox, Angels and you have the favoritie to win the WS. For say 7.5 or more (anything more than the Dbacks' 6.5) you may have a very attractive deal for one of these teams even if it is a long shot that he makes it back all the way.

These team also have money and can wait until midseason if they get the real BW. Heck, 10M for half a season of BW at the top of his game is a good deal.

His agent knows this and this could be what makes any compromise impossible.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HEAR BRANDON WEBB'S THOUGHTS HERE
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2009 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still trying to get my head around that one quote Bickley...

"If Javier Vazquez is a $12.5mil pitcher, you [Brandon] are certainly a steal at $8.5."

Is he honestly implying that Javier Vazquez and his 6.1 WAR -- an estimated $27.4mil value for the Braves -- is overpayed? Does he even realize that Vaz is making $11.5mil this year, not $12.5?
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