Diamondbacks Bullpen Forum Index Diamondbacks Bullpen
The baseball forum that doesn't suck
 
 Home       News Feed 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 
Prospect Success Rates

 
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Diamondbacks Bullpen Forum Index -> Farm Implements
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
ValueArb
Veteran Presence


Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 1896
Location: Post trade WAR, Quentin 3.3, Haren 14

PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2009 12:11 am    Post subject: Prospect Success Rates Reply with quote

Thought this fangraphs article interesting.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dose-reality-prospect-watchers


Quote:
* 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust.
* 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
* 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
* 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
* 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust.
* 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
* 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
* 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust.
* 59% of ‘B grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* 52% of ‘B grade’ pitching prospects bust.
* 83% of ‘C grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* Around 75% of all ‘C grade’ pitching prospects bust.

_________________
True fans sense a special pain from an owner too cheap to ever field a competitive team, and smile when the idiot GM lackey trades for a crappy starter because his teammates scored lots of runs and held most of his leads.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Oden
Hall of Famer


Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3622
Location: Gilbert, AZ

PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The table on page 4 here explains what Wang considers a "bust".

http://philbirnbaum.com/btn2007-11.pdf

Per the article, he has 15% of top 10 hitter picks becoming stars. 4% of top 10 pick pitchers become stars.
_________________
He's not the Messiah. He's a very naughty boy!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Diamondbacks Bullpen Forum Index -> Farm Implements All times are GMT - 7 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



visitors since April 13, 2006.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group