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A.J. Hinch
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 11, 2009 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FatLeprechaun wrote:
ValueArb, you need to come up with some new arguments. How many thousands of words have you written about Melvin's decision to keep Schoenweiss in for one more batter? When other people make different arguments, you say the same things over again, just longer and in more detail.


It's a perfect example of why Bo Mel was so bad. He constantly talked about playing the hot hand or guys he could "depend on" because of their recent success.

Do you want a manager who picks a "hot hand" when he makes decisions based on statistical data, or would you prefer a manager who understands that statistical data tells us there is no such thing as a hot hand? Managers make almost all in game decisions based on statistical data, don't you think it's a basic job requirement that they should understand which data has predictive ability and which doesn't?

I've asked the question over and over in many ways but everyone has ducked it. They'd prefer to think the best managers are set apart by "experience" and a "feel for the game" and want to ignore the hard reality that there is basic math involved in most in game decisions, while many "old school" managers can't add two plus two properly.
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Diamondbacks haven't topped a .260 EqA since 2002, haven't been above .255 since 2005, and won't be so long as the team builds around duds like Chris Young (.245), Stephen Drew (.254), and Chad Tracy (.237); in all, the team gives over 57 percent of its plate appearances to hitters who finish under .260.

This is the opinon from the final hit list at Baseball Prospectus about the offensive woes of the Diamondbacks!
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misterx
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Former AZ mgr Melvin to interview for Astros job. Bryan Price interviews for Brewers PC job via Steve Gilbert's twitter
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
The Diamondbacks haven't topped a .260 EqA since 2002, haven't been above .255 since 2005, and won't be so long as the team builds around duds like Chris Young (.245), Stephen Drew (.254), and Chad Tracy (.237); in all, the team gives over 57 percent of its plate appearances to hitters who finish under .260.

This is the opinon from the final hit list at Baseball Prospectus about the offensive woes of the Diamondbacks!


Drew and Chris Young at least play premium defensive positions where offense is less important, though how well is debatable. But Tracy was the big problem, putting up a .237 while playing mediocre defense at an offensive first position is awful, but fortunately he ain't coming back, and I can't imagine that we'll get a .237 out of a 24 year old Brandon Allen, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and who-ever else they get to share time at first.
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chris Young played just well enough at the end of the season to sucker everyone into drinking the Kool-Aid again on his "potential". Drew while hitting like a stereotypical light hitting good fielding shortstop doesn't quite play defense well enough to fill the second half of the bill.

Time to blow up this team and rebuild it.
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Guitar Salad
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
Chris Young played just well enough at the end of the season to sucker everyone into drinking the Kool-Aid again on his "potential". Drew while hitting like a stereotypical light hitting good fielding shortstop doesn't quite play defense well enough to fill the second half of the bill.

Time to blow up this team and rebuild it.


We spent all of '09 without two of our most productive players from '08 in Webb and Jackson, and you want to hit the reset button? It's way too early for that.
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No guarantee that either will perform in 2010 at the level they did in 2008. Having said that I would bet on Jackson coming closer than Webb.

be that as it may. Upton, Montero, and Reynolds are the only untouchables among position players in my humble opinion. Even then they are not the most accomplished defensive group. That certainly doesn't help our shaky pitching staff.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure what you want to blow up, essentially this team is already in rebuilding mode. They have nothing to trade other than prospects, and that ain't rebuilding. Of our veteran players, Davis, Byrnes, Tracy, and Schoenweis are gone.

The only vets earning significant dough are Haren and Webb. So we can trade Haren and give up the option on Webb if you really want to start over at ground zero. But given that we control Haren for 3 more years at below market prices and he'd be very difficult to replace I think it would it's hard to get enough value to make a trade worthwhile. And Brandon only costs money, and only $6.5M at that, and if he's any good next year we can either extend him or trade him to help the rebuilding effort.

Davis, Tracy & Schoenweiss free up $14M this off season. Byrne's contract is ends next year, as does Webb's, giving us $20M more to spend next off season. If I read Kendricks comments right, we have 3 years left at $14M per year in deferred payroll, so after 2012 we'll have another $14M per year.

If you look at the Baseball Prospectus 3rd order wins, they think this team should have been close to .500 even with the injuries and the black holes in left field, first base, and the back end of the rotation. Given the extra money we have to spend to replace Doug Davis, if Brandon and CoJack come back healthy we should have a competitive team next year, and the resources to stay competitive for the forseeable future with the same team core.

Oh, and I don't think anyone is drinking Kool-aid on CY any more, but don't discount his value. He's been about a 4 Win player over three seasons, essentially solidly below average. But paying him $6M per year isn't going to kill the team, and he just turned 26. He's only a boat anchor if you think his defense is worse than UZR thinks it is. If you think he's actually an above average defender, he'll be an asset.

In fact, Parra, Ankiel, Taveras, Rios, BJ Upton, Tony Gwynn Jr, Rasmus, Dukes, and Vernon Wells are all outfielders/centerfielders who had a worse year at the plate than Chris Young. And while we owe CY $25M over the next 4 years, the Blue Jays owe Vernon Wells $100M over the next 5 years.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2009 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
Not sure what you want to blow up, essentially this team is already in rebuilding mode. They have nothing to trade other than prospects, and that ain't rebuilding.


It's re-loading! And the Dbacks did it very successfully following the 2007 season.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the Yankees have a crappy manager.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

misterx wrote:
Former AZ mgr Melvin to interview for Astros job. Bryan Price interviews for Brewers PC job via Steve Gilbert's twitter

Brad Mills named Astros manager
Red Sox bench coach was skipper in Minors for 11 years
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Well, the Yankees have a crappy manager.


Quote:
Girardi benched the slumping Nick Swisher in favor of Jerry Hairston Jr. on Thursday, also pairing catcher Jose Molina with pitcher A.J. Burnett for the 10th straight game. More than Swisher's slump, Girardi said, the move was about Hairston's success against Phillies starter Pedro Martinez.

"He's had a lot of success off of Pedro," Girardi said of Hairston. "We also like the way they kind of match up against each other, and that kind of shows up in the numbers. So we thought we'd give Jerry tonight."

In 27 career at-bats against Martinez, Hairston is 10-for-27 with two doubles and one triple. Swisher is hitless off him in two at-bats, though that sample size is negligible compared to Swisher's ever-growing slump in October.


Thank god Joe Girardi has the EXPERIENCE that AJ lacks. Girardi was Torre's bench coach, managed the Marlins where he had a great young pitching staff (whatever happened to those guys, he, he) and has PLAYOFF AND WORLD SERIES EXPERIENCE. And now Girardi is using his EXPERIENCE to put two lousy right handed batters in against a right handed pitcher, and keep two far better left handed hitters on the bench.

Girardi uses Bo Mel's favorite playbook, based around small, irrellevent sample sizes. When a guy is TEN FOR TWENTY SEVEN against a pitcher FIVE TO TEN YEARS AGO, that tiny sample size says he's got Pedro's number. Esp. when another small sample size, 35 post season ABs, says that Swisher is slumping. And he won't be getting out of that slump tonight, that's for sure.

Good thing Burnett is pitching, cause it's not like they'll need Swishers DEFENSE in right field.

Yep, EXPERIENCE is what sets good managers apart from bad.
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FatLeprechaun
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
Well, the Yankees have a crappy manager.


Quote:
Girardi benched the slumping Nick Swisher in favor of Jerry Hairston Jr. on Thursday, also pairing catcher Jose Molina with pitcher A.J. Burnett for the 10th straight game. More than Swisher's slump, Girardi said, the move was about Hairston's success against Phillies starter Pedro Martinez.

"He's had a lot of success off of Pedro," Girardi said of Hairston. "We also like the way they kind of match up against each other, and that kind of shows up in the numbers. So we thought we'd give Jerry tonight."

In 27 career at-bats against Martinez, Hairston is 10-for-27 with two doubles and one triple. Swisher is hitless off him in two at-bats, though that sample size is negligible compared to Swisher's ever-growing slump in October.


Thank god Joe Girardi has the EXPERIENCE that AJ lacks. Girardi was Torre's bench coach, managed the Marlins where he had a great young pitching staff (whatever happened to those guys, he, he) and has PLAYOFF AND WORLD SERIES EXPERIENCE. And now Girardi is using his EXPERIENCE to put two lousy right handed batters in against a right handed pitcher, and keep two far better left handed hitters on the bench.

Girardi uses Bo Mel's favorite playbook, based around small, irrellevent sample sizes. When a guy is TEN FOR TWENTY SEVEN against a pitcher FIVE TO TEN YEARS AGO, that tiny sample size says he's got Pedro's number. Esp. when another small sample size, 35 post season ABs, says that Swisher is slumping. And he won't be getting out of that slump tonight, that's for sure.

Good thing Burnett is pitching, cause it's not like they'll need Swishers DEFENSE in right field.

Yep, EXPERIENCE is what sets good managers apart from bad.


I think Girardi is relatively inexperienced, which sort of turns your argument on its head.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not exactly. Joe is less experienced than most MLB managers, but he's managed before, a MLB bench coach under a top manager, and a starter on a world champion team. If AJ had any of those attributes the criticism of his hire would have been much less. If Josh had hired Girardi, most of the critics would have been happy, yet Girardi is awful.

My point has always been it's better to be smart than experienced. You can gain experience, but dumb managers don't benefit from it. Fans over-rate experience and don't realize how bad most managers are, and how poor their understanding of probabilities, logic, and modern baseball science is. AJ with no experience probably started in the top half of managers. With experience he can be one of the best.

My point has
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J Hairston Jr. RF 3 0 1 0 0 1 .333
(and his pinch runner scored a key insurance run)

Perhaps over time the numbers would bear out that Swisher would be the better play to produce, but down 1-0 in a series with what will at most be six more games, a manager doesn't have time to wait for the percentages to even out. He has to look into the eyes of his players and trust his feel for real human beings that may be slump ridden and pressing. Tonight, advantage Girardi.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Despite the struggles, Swish still takes a lot of pitches, so what if: He would have made Pedro throw more pitches, thus wearing him out much sooner, leading to the Yankees getting more runs off the him and the 'pen, putting the game out of reach, therefore not needing to use Mariano for two innings instead of one....exhale. They weren't the smoothest of innings either.

Maybe advantage Joe but I still would have started Swisher and Posada. The latter actually driving in the insurance run.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
J Hairston Jr. RF 3 0 1 0 0 1 .333
(and his pinch runner scored a key insurance run)

Perhaps over time the numbers would bear out that Swisher would be the better play to produce, but down 1-0 in a series with what will at most be six more games, a manager doesn't have time to wait for the percentages to even out. He has to look into the eyes of his players and trust his feel for real human beings that may be slump ridden and pressing. Tonight, advantage Girardi.


It was an awful decision that he got lucky on (in reality dodged many bullets, including having a terrible right fielders in against a lefty lineup). Burnett won this game. Joe has no clue when anyones slump will end, he just ensured it will continue longer.

And remember, Girardi pinch ran for ARod, a very good baserunner himself, in the 9th down one run in the ALCS. He took his best player out of agame that had a very good chance of going to extra innings, to get a minor increase in speed. Girardi is horrible, he even destroyed an entire staff of young promising pitchers when he managed Florida.
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David B
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Octacon, you can't play the "what if" game. Swisher has been in the lineup throughout the playoffs and he's sucked (4 for 35 with 3 walks and only one extra base hit). You can claim small sample size, but when you only have as few as three and at most six games left in your season, you can't just sit back and wait for the numbers to even out (and as Art Howe and Ken Macha can tell you in Oakland, there's no guarantee that the numbers break the same in a short series that they do over a 162 game season). If it doesn't happen in the next week, it really doesn't matter when it happens after that (again, just ask Howe and Macha).

And Value Arb, you can't play the "when a manager makes a decision against the book and it doesn't pan out (re: Schoenweis v. Cameron) it's a bad decision, but when he goes against the book and it works (re: Hairston v. Pedro) it's luck" game. It sets up an intellectually dishonest argument.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And as far as the decision to start Molina, he's been Burnett's (he of the key performance in the win tonight) personal catcher most of the season and it's obvious AJ feels more comfortable throwing to him then he does Posada. You can look at Burnett's ERA during the season pitching to Posada (5.33) vs. his ERA with the backup catchers (mostly Molina) he's thrown to (3.42). To be intellectually honest, the difference could merely be that Posada caught all four of Burnett's starts vs. Boston and the AJ/Jorge team sucked against the Sox (9.74). But to be just as intellectually honest, since 2002, Molina's catcher's ERA is 4% lower than the ERA of the team's that he's been on, and Posada's is 3% higher than the teams he's been on (a difference of 7% between the two catchers).
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

7% difference? That's noise.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps, levski. And 7% might not be enough to offset the difference in offense you get from Posada v Molina. This decision is much more debatable than the Swisher one. However Burnett a) had developed a working relationship with Molina over the course of the season; b) had his worst results against Boston, a powerful offensive team (which would also describe Philadelphia) with Posada catching all four of his starts against the Sox.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

David, my arguments are the same, going against the math, when the difference is large, is dumb. You can still get lucky hitting on 18. Bo Mel didn't, Giradi did too a small extent.

While there is a lot of variance in short series, no one knows when a streak ends. Girardi missed a premium opportunity to get Swisher out of his slump in a highly favorable matchup, and if Swish didn't hit, his superior defense was very valuable as well.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
Perhaps, levski. And 7% might not be enough to offset the difference in offense you get from Posada v Molina.


It absolutely is not enough. Not even close.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Well, the Yankees have a crappy manager.


unfortunately you can afford to have a crappy manager when you have the biggest payroll in baseball. you might still win despite it.

when you're struggling to get yourself out of last place, not so much.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobster wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
Well, the Yankees have a crappy manager.


unfortunately you can afford to have a crappy manager when you have the biggest payroll in baseball. you might still win despite it.

.


Well, that worked for Bob Brenly in 2001
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