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The Snyder/Montero Chronicles
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mwmags2002
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone notice Montero is batting .130 since July 5th.... 3 for 23
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Coupled with Reynolds' hot .181 since June 15th.
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mwmags2002
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

speaking of Reynolds...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-10-statistical-predictions-we-re-making-for-;_ylt=Ak2fVOlwhW27o3qWBNmxshYRvLYF?urn=mlb,256544

9. Mark Reynolds(notes) will strike out 200 times, again. In major league history, there is only one man who has ever struck out 200 times, and he is now poised to do it three times in a row. Reynolds is having a bit of a down year his home runs and strikeouts are all pretty much at their usual rates, but his batting average is way down, thanks to a major dip in his BABIP. For his career, he's struck out in one-third of his plate appearances, once every 2.6 at-bats. He already has 122 strikeouts this year, and he'll probably get another 300 plate appearances this season, so the odds are very good that he'll do it again.
Those kind of whiff totals give many old-school baseball types a serious case of the vapors, and he's lucky he's on a team progressive enough to appreciate his other talents if he played for Tom Kelly, he'd probably be on the bench or on a plane. As it is, he's got a big contract, and there's pretty much no way he's getting moved off his position, so he'll keep on striding to the dish and keep on striking out at record-breaking rates.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mwmags2002 wrote:
Anyone notice Montero is batting .130 since July 5th.... 3 for 23

During that same period:
Kelly Johnson .424
Chris Young .310
Adam LaRoche .286
Justin Upton .278
Stephen Drew .276
Chris Snyder .200
Mark Reynolds .107

My thoughts? Worrying about batting average over 20-some ABs is probably pretty silly.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
My thoughts? Worrying about batting average over 20-some ABs is probably pretty silly.



Which is why I chose a whole month Wink
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mwmags2002
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just sayin' he's in a slump, and cooling off from his torrid start..
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 18, 2010 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Coupled with Reynolds' hot .181 since June 15th.


They are 8-19 since that day too Confused
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2010 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Following up on something I mentioned in the game thread

HR % against for D Backs catchers


2010

Snyder 3.9% (87-2230)
Montero 2.6% (24-935)
Hester 3.0 % (16-528)

2009
Snyder 2.84% (54-1899)
Montero 2.57% (102-3958)
Hester 2.05% (5-243)

2009-2010 combined

Snyder 3.4% (141-4129)
Montero 2.6% (126-4893)
Hester 2.7% (21-771)

I'm not sure how meaningful this is, or if the sample size is big enough to clearly indicate anything. But it's a trend worth noting, and paying attention to. If I were a coach, I would want to know this, and keep an eye on what Snyder is doing, and look for reasons why pitchers have been more homer prone with Snyder behind the plate than with our other catchers.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2010 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Following up on something I mentioned in the game thread

HR % against for D Backs catchers


2010

Snyder 3.9% (87-2230)
Montero 2.6% (24-935)
Hester 3.0 % (16-528)

2009
Snyder 2.84% (54-1899)
Montero 2.57% (102-3958)
Hester 2.05% (5-243)

2009-2010 combined

Snyder 3.4% (141-4129)
Montero 2.6% (126-4893)
Hester 2.7% (21-771)

I'm not sure how meaningful this is, or if the sample size is big enough to clearly indicate anything. But it's a trend worth noting, and paying attention to. If I were a coach, I would want to know this, and keep an eye on what Snyder is doing, and look for reasons why pitchers have been more homer prone with Snyder behind the plate than with our other catchers.


Im not sure if this is the case - but is there a pattern to WHO Snyder catches? In other words - if Snyder was the "personal catcher" for Homer prone pitchers this year - and Montero was catching Webb (haha), that would impact your comparison.

It would be interesting to see the percentages BY PITCHER. So, for Haren, does he give up more HRs per pitch when Snyder is catching?
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2010 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Following up on something I mentioned in the game thread

HR % against for D Backs catchers


2010

Snyder 3.9% (87-2230)
Montero 2.6% (24-935)
Hester 3.0 % (16-528)

2009
Snyder 2.84% (54-1899)
Montero 2.57% (102-3958)
Hester 2.05% (5-243)

2009-2010 combined

Snyder 3.4% (141-4129)
Montero 2.6% (126-4893)
Hester 2.7% (21-771)

I'm not sure how meaningful this is, or if the sample size is big enough to clearly indicate anything. But it's a trend worth noting, and paying attention to. If I were a coach, I would want to know this, and keep an eye on what Snyder is doing, and look for reasons why pitchers have been more homer prone with Snyder behind the plate than with our other catchers.


Im not sure if this is the case - but is there a pattern to WHO Snyder catches? In other words - if Snyder was the "personal catcher" for Homer prone pitchers this year - and Montero was catching Webb (haha), that would impact your comparison.

It would be interesting to see the percentages BY PITCHER. So, for Haren, does he give up more HRs per pitch when Snyder is catching?


I remember looking this up awhile ago, so no sure how much it's changed. But Snyder's "Catcher ERA" was significantly higher the last 2 years than Montero's.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Following up on something I mentioned in the game thread

HR % against for D Backs catchers


2010

Snyder 3.9% (87-2230)
Montero 2.6% (24-935)
Hester 3.0 % (16-528)

2009
Snyder 2.84% (54-1899)
Montero 2.57% (102-3958)
Hester 2.05% (5-243)

2009-2010 combined

Snyder 3.4% (141-4129)
Montero 2.6% (126-4893)
Hester 2.7% (21-771)

I'm not sure how meaningful this is, or if the sample size is big enough to clearly indicate anything. But it's a trend worth noting, and paying attention to. If I were a coach, I would want to know this, and keep an eye on what Snyder is doing, and look for reasons why pitchers have been more homer prone with Snyder behind the plate than with our other catchers.


Im not sure if this is the case - but is there a pattern to WHO Snyder catches? In other words - if Snyder was the "personal catcher" for Homer prone pitchers this year - and Montero was catching Webb (haha), that would impact your comparison.

It would be interesting to see the percentages BY PITCHER. So, for Haren, does he give up more HRs per pitch when Snyder is catching?


interesting... i would love to see a break down of HR by catcher and pitcher combo
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 2:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They have actually been catching the same guys...just at different times. Early last year, Snyder got most of the PT, got hurt, and then Montero took over. Early this year Montero started...but got hurt right away, Snyder caught everyone for a while, and lately Montero has got the bulk of the starts. So it's actually pretty spread out.
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:

I remember looking this up awhile ago, so no sure how much it's changed. But Snyder's "Catcher ERA" was significantly higher the last 2 years than Montero's.


I don't know about the last two years, but I know at one point, Snyder's Low CERA was a feather in his cap for reasons to play/keep him.

So if there was a change, wonder when it was and if there was anything to cause it outside randomness. CERA isn't the most robust stat out there.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 22, 2010 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The reason I highlighted HR against instead of something like CERA or even opponents OPS, is because the HR is such a dramatic event, and often times a mistake pitch. A mistake pitch can be a location issue, but just as often, it's a mistake in that the hitter out thought the catcher and the pitcher.

I had a friend complain to me that Snyder seems to call a game according to what would get HIMSELF out....not the guy at the plate. A hitter is most likely to hit a HR when he guesses right or knows what is coming. Hence my speculation that maybe Snyder is tipping pitches or location to the batter. (Gutierrez HR/PA ratio with Snyder vs. Montero is astonishing)

Somebody might wonder why I didn't look at 2007 or 2008...but there was a very clear divergence between who got to catch who during those seasons.

Montero mostly caught the likes of pre ressurection Livan, Yusi Petit, Edgar Gonzalez, etc....while Snyder was catching Webb and Haren all the time. So pretty tough to compare those seasons.

If you go back to 2006, when Snyder got 1/3 of the PT and Estrada 2/3, the breakdown was:

Estrada 2.4%, 98-4026
Snyder 2.9%, 62-2141
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's got to be pretty difficult to identify any single reason for the number of HR's given up. And as for calling the game, that's a staff effort. Pre-game scouting reports, etc. So if the hitter is out-thinking the C, he's usually out-thinking the whole pitching staff, too. His scouts have probably alerted him to "the book" on him, etc.

One thing I considered was the comfort level CS may have with the pitching staff and maybe an unrealistic confidence in their abilities. An inflated confidence in the staff would lead to to challenging hitters more often, resulting in more HR's. Maybe Montero isn't as comfortable/confident, and is looking to protect the pitchers more? Or maybe it's unfavorable match-ups? Or maybe it's playing more home games, and day games? I don't know.

But if the staff did have a problem with Snyder's game-calling and it's been going on for a few years now, I think we woulda seen Montero regularly in the lineup much earlier than just this past season or 2.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or Maybe Snyder started tipping pitches. Wink
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Or Maybe Snyder started tipping pitches. Wink

Or maybe the Pitchers have been shaking him off too much... Laughing
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't view the video....I assume it's You Tube.

Great Firewall and all.......
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Or Maybe Snyder started tipping pitches. Wink


Kelly Stinnett, who was making a cameo on the telecast today, speculated the same thing.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Or Maybe Snyder started tipping pitches. Wink


Kelly Stinnett, who was making a cameo on the telecast today, speculated the same thing.


Kelly is a smart guy Wink
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Snyder took a little shot from Gibby in the postgame for having Demel throw a first pitch fastball to Uribe.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE SHADOW wrote:
Snyder took a little shot from Gibby in the postgame for having Demel throw a first pitch fastball to Uribe.


Interesting.

Well........if Gibby is calling the pitches in that situation, he has responsbility.

Where was Snyder set up ? If he was set up outside for example, and Demel missed over the middle, then it was Demels fault.
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounded like Gibby said Snyder called the pitch.

Also Snyder starting again on Sunday.

Did they say anything on tonights broadcast?

Is Miggy nicked up?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not that I know of.
Maybe he's just Bob Melvin 2.0.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They are probably showcasing him to other teams.
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