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Where do you think the DOW will bottom out ?
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Where will DOW bottom out ?
8,000
10%
 10%  [ 3 ]
7,500
27%
 27%  [ 8 ]
7,000
27%
 27%  [ 8 ]
6,500
13%
 13%  [ 4 ]
6,000
10%
 10%  [ 3 ]
5,000
6%
 6%  [ 2 ]
4,000
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
3,000
3%
 3%  [ 1 ]
Total Votes : 29

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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:39 am    Post subject: Where do you think the DOW will bottom out ? Reply with quote

How low can it go , (During this down cycle/recession) ?
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Dre
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Depression equivalency lows are right down here in the 7500 level, I think we could break those. It won't make sense to, but panic and irrationality could mean that level gets tested. Breaking 7000 would just be a panic driven catastrophe that wouldn't represent even the worst case scenario in terms of value in the companies.

Now is the worst time to sell, and a pretty good opportunity to buy.
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:

Now is the worst time to sell, and a pretty good opportunity to buy.


Agree... did what I could to help yesterday by buying ... and likely will buy some more next week.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So I take it those starting out on their careers are basically screwed for the next few years? Im into health care, eventually either and RN or LPN...maybe Pharmacy Tech. Do you think those careers will be affected as drastically as say...a shoe store person, truck driver or whatever?
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
So I take it those starting out on their careers are basically screwed for the next few years? Im into health care, eventually either and RN or LPN...maybe Pharmacy Tech. Do you think those careers will be affected as drastically as say...a shoe store person, truck driver or whatever?


I think Health care is a GREAT place to be. Stuff that isnt based on consumer spending their "extra money" is still going to be just fine, and is recession resistant.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

moviegeekjn wrote:
Dre wrote:

Now is the worst time to sell, and a pretty good opportunity to buy.


Agree... did what I could to help yesterday by buying ... and likely will buy some more next week.


x2. Im scooping up some items that i think are ata discount. I wish i had more cash on hand.

Im storing this away for the next one.
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Guitar Salad
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm the lone vote for 8000 right now. I think it's probably gonig to dip below that, but not to the 7500 level. That's just my gut feeling, though. If I had a penny to my name, I'd be doing exactly what mg did.
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Dre
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Justin wrote:
So I take it those starting out on their careers are basically screwed for the next few years? Im into health care, eventually either and RN or LPN...maybe Pharmacy Tech. Do you think those careers will be affected as drastically as say...a shoe store person, truck driver or whatever?


I think Health care is a GREAT place to be. Stuff that isnt based on consumer spending their "extra money" is still going to be just fine, and is recession resistant.


x2

And whoever voted for 8,000... you immediately fail Laughing Wink We hit a low of 7882.51 off the open this morning.

EDIT: Nevermind, just saw GS's post.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I voted 7000, but if it hits 7500, I'll probably jump in. I still think it's a little early.
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:

I think Health care is a GREAT place to be. Stuff that isnt based on consumer spending their "extra money" is still going to be just fine, and is recession resistant.


x2

"Essential" area that can't be shortchanged too much (unless we are truly headed towards Mad Max/Thunderdome times. (and then we're all screwed)
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TAP
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
Now is the worst time to sell, and a pretty good opportunity to buy.

Much like real estate. If you don't need to sell, it's probably better that you wait it out (especially if you bought in 2004 or later). One exception to that rule is if you're moving up to a bigger, more expensive home. In that case you'll take a hit on the sale of your home but will likely see bigger savings on the purchase side as the seller of the larger property will take the larger hit.

If you're a buyer of a primary residence that plans to hold onto the home for several years and has the credit and down payment to get a good loan, this is a great time to buy. There are some unbelievable opportunities and buyers are cherry picking homes that are selling for in some cases half of what they were last puchased for.

Buy low, sell high.
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Dre
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:


If you're a buyer of a primary residence that plans to hold onto the home for several years and has the credit and down payment to get a good loan, this is a great time to buy. There are some unbelievable opportunities and buyers are cherry picking homes that are selling for in some cases half of what they were last puchased for.

Buy low, sell high.


I'll be buying/building in the next 12 months, looking forward to it.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Biggest problem right now, of course, is getting a mortgage loan, or any loan.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
TAP wrote:


If you're a buyer of a primary residence that plans to hold onto the home for several years and has the credit and down payment to get a good loan, this is a great time to buy. There are some unbelievable opportunities and buyers are cherry picking homes that are selling for in some cases half of what they were last puchased for.

Buy low, sell high.


I'll be buying/building in the next 12 months, looking forward to it.


Im moving into a trailer with a friend of mine next month. Shell charge me 400$ a month so I think thats pretty good. Dont know how long I will be living their for though. Its a good size for a trailer.

Yes, this post was mostly just randomness.
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Guitar Salad
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
qudjy1 wrote:
Justin wrote:
So I take it those starting out on their careers are basically screwed for the next few years? Im into health care, eventually either and RN or LPN...maybe Pharmacy Tech. Do you think those careers will be affected as drastically as say...a shoe store person, truck driver or whatever?


I think Health care is a GREAT place to be. Stuff that isnt based on consumer spending their "extra money" is still going to be just fine, and is recession resistant.


x2

And whoever voted for 8,000... you immediately fail Laughing Wink We hit a low of 7882.51 off the open this morning.

EDIT: Nevermind, just saw GS's post.


Balls...

I'm still to broke to buy anything, though.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Biggest problem right now, of course, is getting a mortgage loan, or any loan.


This is so true, my uncle who lives in Queens with a mortgage almost paid up (two more years to go), he applied for a credit union loan in order to renovate and it took him more than a month to finally get it approved. It's a shocking comparison to a few months ago when I applied for refinancing to a lower rate, I got it done in a week.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/10/10-bullish-sign.html

Quote:
These suggest to us that we are increasingly close to a bottom that can be purchased for an upside trade of 20-30% from these levels.

NOTE: We scale in over time, in 10% increments, and recognize that the bottoming process can take several months to several quarters to complete. Hence, slowly buying in is the key.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IMHO, the rule of thumb in these situations is that you should have liquidity (cash) to survive for 6 months even if a lot of bad things happened -- i.e., you lost your job. Anything extra on top of that is probably safe to invest... but do it gradually. Thus, if you have 24,000$ to invest, you're better off investing $2,000 a month for 12 months than $24,000 all at once--unless you're absolutely 200% sure the market has hit rock bottom and will not go any lower...
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DBWS08
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Dre wrote:
Now is the worst time to sell, and a pretty good opportunity to buy.

Much like real estate. If you don't need to sell, it's probably better that you wait it out (especially if you bought in 2004 or later). One exception to that rule is if you're moving up to a bigger, more expensive home. In that case you'll take a hit on the sale of your home but will likely see bigger savings on the purchase side as the seller of the larger property will take the larger hit.

If you're a buyer of a primary residence that plans to hold onto the home for several years and has the credit and down payment to get a good loan, this is a great time to buy. There are some unbelievable opportunities and buyers are cherry picking homes that are selling for in some cases half of what they were last puchased for.

Buy low, sell high.


While in Seattle this past three weeks, I fell head over heels in love with that city and I was daydreaming about trying to talk my dad into buying a second home with me in Seattle. His house here in Phoenix is way too big for the two of them, they really should downsize and with a second home in Seattle, they could get away from the summer heat. But, the way the economy is going, it's totally undoable at this point. The housing here is still tanking while in Seattle, it's quite stable. Like TAP said, "Buy low, sell high" is the way to go. "Sell low and buy high" would be suicidal.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

People who took 2 and 3 year ARMs in 2005/2006/2007 --arguably the three most speculative years of the market boom -- are going to be really screwed in the short term. In fact, because of these, we probably won't know for sure what houses are really worth until 2009 or more likely 2010, until all those people have refinanced or sold or just given up on their homes. We're probably looking at about 5 year recovery period here--and even then, I doubt houses in really speculative markets --FL, AZ, NV, CA -- will get back to their peak levels for another decade or probably two.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And I know this is about the DOW and not houses but

http://thewildinvestor.com/how-long-before-housing-turns-around/

Quote:
An interesting article I came across on WSJ.com, which covered the slumping housing prices.

I am a data guy, so I like to have arguments backed-up by past events. Over time I have heard several different theories for how long before the housing prices turnaround. According to the articleís data, it could take up to 6 years.

Housing markets donít tend to turn around quickly. The price slump in California in the early 1990s, for instance, was a long grind. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, Los Angeles prices peaked in June 1990 and didnít bottom until March 1996. They didnít get back to their 1990 peak until 2000.

If this pattern holds truth, then prices wouldnít begin to head back upwards until 2012 (2006 was peak) and we would not hit 2006 prices till 2016.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122341352084512611.html
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Dre
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here comes 8,000 again
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real estate peak in Arizona BTW was November of 2005. Inventory increased and prices decreased from that point.

We bought in California in 1994 and sold in 1999 for a 38% gain. We reinvested in a larger home in CA in 1999 and sold in 2003 for a 31% gain. Both were without any added improvements.

Phoenix residential real estate valleywide appreciated at a 47% rate in 2005 which was ridiculously unhealthy. What goes up that fast must come down. In the long run with slower healthier post-recovery growth, sunshine and affordability will always remain drawing cards for out of state relocations to Arizona.

While there was far too much speculative buying in '04 and '05 in AZ and other sunshine states, the long-term forecast for rust-belt states is much gloomier for obvious reasons.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jobs ?
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
Here comes 8,000 again


So are we going to see a late rally or a late plunge ?
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