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Claudio Vargas: Hold or Trade?
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:50 pm    Post subject: Claudio Vargas: Hold or Trade? Reply with quote

Vargas finishes the season 12-10 with a 4.83 ERA. His ERA+ was 97 prior to day.

His periphs heading into today suggest he pretty much earned exactly what he got.

FIP 4.82
X-FIP 4.94

Last year he had the following numbers
4.81 ERA
4.86 FIP
4.59 XFIP
91 ERA+

So nothing "flukey" about his results one way or the other. This years results truly reflects who he is.

He will cost approximately 2 million next year.

What say ye about this somewhat below league average starter?


Last edited by shoewizard on Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Off with his balls!
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What does a below-average pitcher bring in trade except another below-average pitcher?

Apart from some so-so A or AA prospects, it doesn't seem likely that trading him gets us anywhere useful and productive.

On the other hand, holding on doesn't seem to have much on the upside, either, unless he's automatically the #5 guy, keeping the spot warm for Nippert or Owings, with the idea of getting something for him at the trade deadline next year...
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Off with his balls!


Don't you mean, "Strike off...?" Wink
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Stuart
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HE GORN!
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Hank
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EvilJuan wrote:
Apart from some so-so A or AA prospects, it doesn't seem likely that trading him gets us anywhere useful and productive.


Evil, you are forgetting that trading him rids the D-backs of 2 million dollars in payroll. That is the only thing you get back, but it might be important if that extra money could be coupled with other available funds and used more productively.

If any of the kids projects to give as good a peripheral numbers, you save 1.7 million by dumping Vargas, and that is reason enough to me to send him away.
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hank wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
Apart from some so-so A or AA prospects, it doesn't seem likely that trading him gets us anywhere useful and productive.


Evil, you are forgetting that trading him rids the D-backs of 2 million dollars in payroll. That is the only thing you get back, but it might be important if that extra money could be coupled with other available funds and used more productively.

If any of the kids projects to give as good a peripheral numbers, you save 1.7 million by dumping Vargas, and that is reason enough to me to send him away.


"If any of the kids..."

And if frogs had wings, they wouldn't bump their butts so much... Wink

Hank, I'll certainly agree that trading Vargas for a bag of batting practice balls saves $1.7M-$2M in payroll. There's still a need for a #5 starter (assuming a rotation of Webb-Hernandez-Egon1-Egon2 -- not necessarily a foregone conclusion, but one I can easily see develop in a positive way for the Dbacks). What will that new #5 consume of the savings? I'd think it would be a push, at best. The other way out of that is to calculate what size of "war chest" could be developed, and then expanded by adding the ~$2M to it -- except that Byrnes has said, repeatedly, that there are no plans to pursue a pitcher via free agency.

Please don't misunderstand my comments here - I am (most emphatically) not saying that Vargas should be kept -- or traded. The opening question of this thread noted Vargas' production for the last two seasons, and invited discussion of "hold or trade." I doubt we'd get much in trade; and wonder if the best time to move him would be at the deadline next year -- which also buys Nippert and Owings a few more months of polishing in Tucson, and then be promoted to the parent club -- and at that point, we benefit from the savings AND their additional development time -- which will lead, hopefully, to improved performance over what Vargas would have otherwise provided.

My $0.02 -- that's all...
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DesertKnight
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure a straight trade-him-or-not question is really applicable with Vargas the way it is, for instance, with Estrada. Estrada wants out and the team wants him out, so he'll be traded. With Vargas, though, he's a serviceable 4 or 5 starter, and he doesn't cost that much. Shoe already noted that this is about an average year for him, and he has 12 wins. That's pretty damn good for a back-of-the-rotation starter. So the question is, if you trade Vargas, can you get more value back for him than you'd be giving up? I doubt it. And most AAA pitchers making the jump to the show aren't ready to pitch a full season--like Enrique, or they struggle and won't be here a full season anyway.

Some possibilities: Assuming Batista won't be back in 2007, if we have (not necessarily in this order) Webb, Livan, Vargas, and Enrique, that leaves one spot open for Edgar/Nippert/someone else . In 2008, Livan's gone, so we might have Webb, Vargas, Enrique, Edgar, Nippert/Owings/someone else. We can work the youngsters into the rotation without straining them their first year.

So I wouldn't trade Vargas unless it was part of a multi-player deal that landed us someone considerably better than the individual pieces we give up.
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Hank
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Evil, I think you and I may be conceiving the question differently, which leads to a different answer.

I guess my assumption in all of this is that we are going to acquire a number 2 or number 3 starter this offseason, and saving the extra Vargas money helps with the economics of that move. EdGon and EnGon are then the likely four and five starters (or one of our other youngsters).
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another thing I failed to mention about Vargas

30 innings, 167 IP, averages less than 5 2/3 IP per start. A real bullpen burner.

He's ok as a number 5, the problem is that neither of the E. Gons are ready to be a 3. They are both 4's and 5's at best themselves next year.

When I think of a 3, by the way, I am thinking in terms of innings.

Your top 3 starters should all be guys who you can count on for 200 innings.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow...Hank and I just said the exact same thing...LOL
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An ERA+ of 97 is close enough to call average. I think we could get more for Vargas than we think. Fuck, Miggy is only marginally better and he's going to be lookin for 3/$18 or 2/$14.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking about comparing Miggy, and using that as a way to pump up Vargas' trade value....BUT.....his ERA is a half a run lower and he threw 40 more innings, and he is, well....you know......






















PV
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
and he is, well....you know......

PV


Paradise Valley?
Puerto Vallerta?
Part Venezuelan?
Potentially Viable?
Photovoltaic?
Promotional Video?
Pressure Volume? (as in PV=nRT; a little bit of physics lore...)

oh, wait...

uh... Proven...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

need more of a innings eater! tomany games he is out in the 3rd with 5 runs on the board
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vargas is getting in PV territory; send him to the Cubs for Rich Hill...

Who incidentally is probably older than Vargas...
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Bob A
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hooray, the seasons almost over. Bring on the off-season!!
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Teegart
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with shoe and hank. Vargas is at best a 4th starter, which i would like to be taken by either EGon and EnGon, with the other taking the 5th spot. Im hoping Livan drops down to the number 3 spot in the rotation and we obtain a number 2 from either trade or FA.

Vargas hasn't been that bad this year, but i don't think we can expect any improvement over this seasons form in future. IMO he's reached his ceiling. Im really liking the look of Micah Owings, i wouldn't be surprised to see him as the first choice for a spot start or if one of the Egons bomb.
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lee mellon
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vargas alone may not bring in anything better by himself, but packeged with someone like hairston or estrada who could be or will be traded respectively, they may bring in at least a number 3 starter. Do you think that's possible? I mean, if another team needs a real good young outfielder, do you think they'll groan over having to give up a #3 if they're also getting a #4? I think that Vargas is completely tradable.
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lee mellon wrote:
Vargas alone may not bring in anything better by himself, but packeged with someone like hairston or estrada who could be or will be traded respectively, they may bring in at least a number 3 starter. Do you think that's possible? I mean, if another team needs a real good young outfielder, do you think they'll groan over having to give up a #3 if they're also getting a #4? I think that Vargas is completely tradable.


An excellent point! (Wish I'd thought of it... Sad)

Mr. Chairman, without objection, I would like to amend my previous comments to reflect that, while Vargas alone has little trade value (in terms of improvements to the Diamondbacks pitching staff), as a part of a package, his value is much greater than it would be on its own.

So moved.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As poor as Vargas' IP's are, the -5.0 ERA, the wins, and the cost (only $2M) make him a decent option as a stop-gap. Hell, if we're going to pay Eric Byrnes $4M, we can surely afford $2M for a #4/5 starter. It just might not be in the cards that we have 3 guys that throw over 200 innings, but maybe if we give ourselves a few extra options, we can find the best combo of starters for the rotation. If Vargas sux, out to the pen he goes.

I'd let him go any other year that we weren't attempting to break in a few rookies. But given the situation, he might provide some stability and keep the wheels from falling off if our youngsters aren't quite ready.
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Beer connoiseur
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
So I wouldn't trade Vargas unless it was part of a multi-player deal that landed us someone considerably better than the individual pieces we give up.


I completely concur. At this point in time it would be futile to make any trades unless the end results benefit the team in the long haul.

Maybe he could be thrown in with Estrada and possibly another positional player to net a middle of the order starter. Just a thought....
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can see that... no priority to keep him, but he could be a useful fungible that could tip the scale when included with a more valuable (Estrada) chip.
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Welcome to the board, Beer!!

I guess the issue is that we've already got a legitimate 3, 4, and 5 guys-- even though the 4th and 5th guys have greater potential IMHO, they'll still benefit (as will the team) up in the ML:

Webb
???
Livan
Enrique
Edgar

What we're seriously lacking is a legit #2. Since no one in their right mind would trade a ML ready #2 for a #5... I'll be generous, #4... alone, Vargas needs to be packaged with the likes of Estrada, prospects, whatever, to get it done. While he has some value. And he has value in today's pitching market.

What's seriously frustrating is that Vargas could be a steal... he just can't sustain getting it together. When he's on, he's great. He just can't find it consistently.

I like what I've seen in Edgar and Enrique and would much rather they got the ML innings.

My 2.

EDIT: The real question is does the FO even care for 2007? They could just keep going with what they have. Livan will be gone in 2008 freeing up some cash and either Owings or Nippert or both should be up. Will a legitimate #2 show themselves by then?

Yes, Enrique, I'm looking at you.
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ncdbackfan
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Vargas needs to go. He's been way too inconsistent for me.
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