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Qualls [and EVERY other Reliever] BLOWS with Runners ON/RISP
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:37 pm    Post subject: Qualls [and EVERY other Reliever] BLOWS with Runners ON/RISP Reply with quote

Why is it taking Josh Byrnes and Bob Melvin half a #### season to comprehend ONE (only ONE) simple fact:

CHAD QUALLS F'ING BLOWS WITH RUNNERS ON BASE!

Josh, Bob, what in the world of dumb personnel management is going on here? Are you blind? Are you ignorant?

Look at the #### numbers, for crying out loud

2008, Qualls ERA/WHIP

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7381/situational?year=2008&type=Pitching

Bases Empty, 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .176 BAA
Runners on, 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .242 BAA
RISP, 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .333 BAA
RISP 2Out, 12.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .154 BAA

A mirage, you say? A small sample size? How about his career numbers:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7381/situational?year=career&type=Pitching

Bases Empty, 152 2/3 IP, 1.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Runners On, 166 2/3 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
RISP, 95 2/3 IP, 7.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
RISP 2 Out, 42 1/3 IP, 15.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP


let me say this again:

QUALLS SUCKS ASS WITH RUNNERS ON BASE

So please open your eyes to this simple fact and STOP this bullshit reasoning that because he's a groundball pitcher he's well suited for retiring inherited runners.

HE BLOWS DONKEYS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

If you're going to use him, use him with the bases empty. Period.
If you want to bring someone with runners on, bring in Pena or Cruz.
Enough of this bullshit misuse of a guy who sucks in these situations.

But what does Melvin do last time, when Owings put runners on?

MELVIN BRINGS IN CHAD #### QUALLS

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280621109&page=plays

And what does Qualls do? He pitches like shit

So what does Melvin do this time, when Davis put runner son?

MELVIN BRING IN CHAD #### QUALLS

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280624102&page=plays

I've been a Melvin defender for a long time, but I think he's completely clueless. And Josh Byrnes et al, for all of their baseball acumen, appear equally clueless and ignorant regarding Qualls's strengths and weaknesses

Qualls sucks because Melvin keeps using him in situations he sucks.
Stop the madness. Stop the bullshit. Get a f'ing clue. Please.


Last edited by levski on Sun May 09, 2010 7:30 pm; edited 1 time in total
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I'm venting, let me say this:

Josh Byrnes and Bob Melvin are so unbelievably slow to make the RIGHT decision, the lava over Pompei could turn to stone and then to dust before they'd decide they'd better do something

It took them about 6 weeks to put Eric Byrnes on the DL. In that time, Eric Byrnes was absolutely killing the team. And when they DID put Byrnes on the DL, they kept strutting Chris Burke out there, even thought Burke is useless.

Yet Burke is still on the team, still taking up at bats, and he's about as a waste of a roster spot as they come. Screw that. This team sucks badly enough even without Burke's abject futility at the plate. Can him.

They are still using Qualls in critical situations with runners base. And I'm guessing they'll continue bringing in Qualls with runners on for the next 2+ years. I'm sure that's because Qualls is a groundball pitcher... Rolling Eyes

My guess is we'll see some productive moves about the beginning of October, when Melvin & Byrnes reserve a morning tee time at the local golf course while some crappy NL west "rival" is facing the Cubs.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't ERA a poor metric to use to measure a reliever, esp. in specific situations?

Chad Qualls Career OPS Against
Bases Empty .691
Runners On .687
RISP .723

2008 Diamondbacks Pitchers OPS Against
Bases Empty .679
Runners On .721
RISP .710
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's BS. ERA is ERA. It's not like the inherited runners are charged to him. And ERA is even forgiving to the pitcher because doesn't include unearned runs, which often times could partially be due to the pitcher.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with ERA, especially when you look at such a significant number of innings like Qualls's career innings in these situations. The guy sucks when he puts (or has) runners on base. Period.

Anyhow, if you like this better, suit yourself:

BPro has a statistic for relievers called WXRL

Quote:

WXRL

Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation


According to that, Qualls is 392nd out of 533 relievers in baseball

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=318797

Where would you say are guys like Pena and Lyon?

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204021

19th and 20th. Even though Qualls's overall ERA is respectable

Don't get me wrong here; Qualls sucks with runners on, period.
And every time Melvin brings him in with runners on, Qualls will suck
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:

Chad Qualls Career OPS Against
Bases Empty .691
Runners On .687
RISP .723

Chad Qualls 2008 OPS Against
Bases Empty .513
Runners On .665
RISP .819

2008 NL Pitchers OPS Against
Bases Empty .737
Runners On .762
RISP .756


This is probably a better comparison. Until this year, he's consistently been better than typical league averages with runners on. So the question is what is happening this year? Is he developed a mental block? Or has he just been unlucky? His BABIP with RISP this year is .387.

What has Chad's WXRL been in years past?
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More interesting stuff about Qualls

In his career

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=quallch01&year=c

High Leverage situations: 496 PA, 19 HR, 0.813 OPS Against
Med Leverage situations: 364 PA, 8 HR, 0.637 OPS Against
Low Leverage situations: 461 PA, 5 HR, 0.599 OPS Against

In 2008

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=quallch01&year=2008

High Leverage situations: 59 PA, 2 HR, 0.739 OPS Against
Med Leverage situations: 43 PA, 0 HR, 0.431 OPS Against
Low Leverage situations: 48 PA, 0 HR, 0.532 OPS Against


If he looks like a choker and smells like a choker...

Anyhow, Ed Wade, the GM who never saw a garbage reliever he didn't like, and the Astros, who're desperate enough for relievers, traded away Chad Qualls because they thought he choked under pressure, then I'd say they knew (and know) something that the Dbacks are blissfully ignorant about. And that's basically the fact that Qualls sucks with runners on base and chokes in high leverage situations.

Just for kicks, check out Valverde's numbers in high leverage situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=valvejo01&year=00

Or the stats of Tony Pena in high leverage situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=penato03&year=00

Lyon is about the same in high leverage and medium leverage

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=lyonbr01&year=00

Cruz also tends to do a bit worse in high leverage situations

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=cruzju02&year=00
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
So the question is what is happening this year? Is he developed a mental block? Or has he just been unlucky? His BABIP with RISP this year is .387.

What has Chad's WXRL been in years past?


This year he wants to be a ZOMG MAXIMUM EFFORTTTTT!!1!!111!!!!1 guy ala The Face. Maybe he will get a 3 yr/30 mil guaranteed contract that way. Im serious.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CAn you guys just chill out on guys like Qualls until mid August? You gotta stick with a plan right now, because you don't want to blow bullpen guys arms out, and also you have to find out what you got. Price and Bomel know what they're doing here.

Yes, Bomel did stretch Dougie out a bit, because guess what, they were looking ahead. Qualls has great stuff. Juan Cruz has ace stuff, are you sure you want to use him as much as Qualls? Pena pitched last night, and may have to pitch the next two. Protecting your bullpen aint as easy as it looks.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:

This is probably a better comparison. Until this year, he's consistently been better than typical league averages with runners on. So the question is what is happening this year? Is he developed a mental block? Or has he just been unlucky? His BABIP with RISP this year is .387.

What has Chad's WXRL been in years past?


Don't know, don't have the access to previous years. And he has been a little unlucky, but he's also sucked. Any way you slice it
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let me go on record saying this: My view of Josh Byrnes as a deity is diminishing daily.

Too many screwups are surfacing now. It's like the US economy; lowering interest rates and things of the sort might be short-term fixes, but eventually a recession will hit, and the more you try and stave it off, the harder it will hit. JB made some deals that were good at the time, but now we're starting to feel the backlash. And if all of this persistence for poor outcomes is BoMel's doing, then I think it's time we bring in another skipper.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another thing about Qualls tonight, he got unlucky in the Pedroia ab. Pedroia got one of them them unsubstainable babip hits, or a jam shot that dropped. then he battlef JD and won, got Manny, and finally Lowell got him,on a pitch, that yes was hittable. Fuck it , shit happens.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
CAn you guys just chill out on guys like Qualls until mid August?


How about mid June instead? Oh wait...


Quote:
Yes, Bomel did stretch Dougie out a bit, because guess what, they were looking ahead. Qualls has great stuff. Juan Cruz has ace stuff, are you sure you want to use him as much as Qualls? Pena pitched last night, and may have to pitch the next two. Protecting your bullpen aint as easy as it looks.


Wait, let me get this straight, you just admitted Cruz is better...but you still want to use Qualls? You flip flop more than John Kerry at a donkey tossing contest.
(no offense to you dangerfield, I just wanted to make a flip flopping Kerry joke)
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
CAn you guys just chill out on guys like Qualls until mid August? You gotta stick with a plan right now, because you don't want to blow bullpen guys arms out, and also you have to find out what you got. Price and Bomel know what they're doing here.

Yes, Bomel did stretch Dougie out a bit, because guess what, they were looking ahead. Qualls has great stuff. Juan Cruz has ace stuff, are you sure you want to use him as much as Qualls? Pena pitched last night, and may have to pitch the next two. Protecting your bullpen aint as easy as it looks.



August? August? Do you think I'll care in August when the Dbacks will be 7 games back of the stinking Dodgers or (even worse) the wretched Giants? Please. You're the one looking ahead, way too far ahead

And if the plan was to bring in Qualls with runners on base consistently, then that plan was godawful from the start, like Dubya's asinine war in Iraq. You stick with a plan that has a chance to succeed. The plan of bringing in Qualls in these men on base/high leverage situations is SHIT
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Dangerfield wrote:
CAn you guys just chill out on guys like Qualls until mid August?


How about mid June instead? Oh wait...


Quote:
Yes, Bomel did stretch Dougie out a bit, because guess what, they were looking ahead. Qualls has great stuff. Juan Cruz has ace stuff, are you sure you want to use him as much as Qualls? Pena pitched last night, and may have to pitch the next two. Protecting your bullpen aint as easy as it looks.


Wait, let me get this straight, you just admitted Cruz is better...but you still want to use Qualls? You flip flop more than John Kerry at a donkey tossing contest.


Not really Justin, Cruz you don't want to hurt by overusing. you walk a fine line, with him. He's the very definition of an expensive finely tuned sports car, that you want to keep the miles low on.
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin wrote:
Wait, let me get this straight, you just admitted Cruz is better...but you still want to use Qualls? You flip flop more than John Kerry at a donkey tossing contest.
(no offense to you dangerfield, I just wanted to make a flip flopping Kerry joke)


Danger can be hard to understand sometimes. What he was saying is, Cruz is much better than Qualls. Which is why you don't want to use him too much. A) You want to save his arm and that fantastic stuff for when you really need it (and for later in the season.
and
B) Too much of a good thing. You let hitters see too much of Cruz's good side, then he becomes more hittable. Trufax.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
August? August? Do you think I'll care in August when the Dbacks will be 7 games back of the stinking Dodgers or (even worse) the wretched Giants? Please. You're the one looking ahead, way too far ahead

And if the plan was to bring in Qualls with runners on base consistently, then that plan was godawful from the start, like Dubya's asinine war in Iraq. You stick with a plan that has a chance to succeed. The plan of bringing in Qualls in these men on base/high leverage situations is SHIT


fun to argue but this stuff, of course, but I'm not going to tell you what Bomel and Price were doing/thinking. Gave you a hint. Pretty sure Price and Bomel, the rest of the team are still confident in Qualls. Divisions going to be won, come mid August on. You get the stats, which are great trees, but there's a giant forest out there.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
Quote:
August? August? Do you think I'll care in August when the Dbacks will be 7 games back of the stinking Dodgers or (even worse) the wretched Giants? Please. You're the one looking ahead, way too far ahead

And if the plan was to bring in Qualls with runners on base consistently, then that plan was godawful from the start, like Dubya's asinine war in Iraq. You stick with a plan that has a chance to succeed. The plan of bringing in Qualls in these men on base/high leverage situations is SHIT


fun to argue but this stuff, of course, but I'm not going to tell you what Bomel and Price were doing/thinking. Gave you a hint. Pretty sure Price and Bomel, the rest of the team are still confident in Qualls. Divisions going to be won, come mid August on. You get the stats, which are great trees, but there's a giant forest out there.


Oh, I too am confident in Qualls, as long as the guy doesn't come in with runners on. And honestly, I doubt anyone knows what BoMel and Price were thinking, especially BoMel and Price.

I do agree the division will be won in August on. Maybe the Dbacks will be one of the teams in contention. But it won't be a lot of fighting and great battles, I can tell you that. It'll be mostly grunts and groans and moans.

And for someone who's supposedly a fan of the forest over the trees, maybe you'd get your nose just enough from Eric Byrnes's moss-covered ass to see the forest? You know, do what you preach? For a change?
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
Another thing about Qualls tonight, he got unlucky in the Pedroia ab. Pedroia got one of them them unsubstainable babip hits, or a jam shot that dropped. then he battlef JD and won, got Manny, and finally Lowell got him,on a pitch, that yes was hittable. Fuck it , shit happens.


Snyder was set up outside. He missed his spot to Lowell by two feet.

And don't forget the hit given up to Varitek.....you know..the game winner.

Qualls has induced 1 double play between between April 24th and now.

This is bullshit. I'm sorry. He needs to switch roles with Cruz, at least temporarily.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 2:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Qualls started struggling early in May with keeping his sinkers down in the strike zone. If he doesn't have a dead arm when he's struggling with getting his pitches down in the strike zone, then he's a fucking headcase that doesn't have a clue how to think clearly on the mound under pressure. He just lets it go like a fucking moron, with the added adrenaline of the moment sending the pitch right down broadway and it gets hammered. He throws too many gopher balls in situations that demand making a quality pitch. He hasn't learned how to succeed pitching under pressure.

Melvin and Price know what they're doing? Doesn't seem to be the case with Qualls. Qualls is a headcase. If you can't use breathing techniques to stay calm, and visualize making quality pitches, you have no chance in hell of succeeding under pressure.

Josh Byrnes, Bob Melvin, and Bryan Price need to hire a sports psychologist to work with all the mentally challenged headcases currently on this roster. Its a simple concept, keying the mind for success. Even the USC Women's Golf Team has a full time sports psychologist working with their team. Does Carlos Quentin ring a bell? This organization missed the boat on the concept of having him work with a sports psychologist.

Its my guess that Qualls came here just as messed up as Lidge was when Houston sent him packing. My guess is Melvin and Price keep going to Qualls because he looks great in the bullpen. They can't comprehend how to fix how Qualls comes apart under pressure. That's a sports psychologists job. Hire one!
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 5:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Revisiting an old theme

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Diamondbacks&season=2008

Chad Qualls has the LOWEST WPA of any player on the team, worse than Burke. That's pathetic.

Yet Qualls has the second highest pLI among relievers, about the same as Pena.

Melvin continues to put Qualls in high leverage situations. Qualls continues to suck.

Qualls (with some poor defensive support, granted) has hurt the Dbacks enough already.

Stop this shit, please.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why does it take a bunch of knuckleheads on the internet to figure out that Qualls isnt getting the job done right now...

I dont get it...
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

qudjy1 wrote:
Why does it take a bunch of knuckleheads on the internet to figure out that Qualls isnt getting the job done right now...

I dont get it...


We're seeing the forest instead of the trees? Laughing
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

next time bomel goes to the mound to call in chad, he should drop his pants..take a shit on the mound....put a mini plastic dbacks helmet on it (the ones u get with ice cream that looks like rabbit shit at the games) because that pile of shit has the same chance as chad to get the outs before the runs score....

as a matter of fact, he and burke should get back on that horse they rode in on with a return to sender stamp on their forehead and send us back some unwashed, game worn jocks from jeff bagwell....I understand the trade...but for fucks sake we got, not one but two stiffs and maybe the jocks have some leftover HGH somewhere they can scrape off...

I needed a few days away from this team.....I watched monday for the first time in about a week and I was nervous but cool with win....I tried my luck 2 days in a row....well lets say I felt like that pile on the mound that bomel leaves everytime he points to chad to leave the pen with runners on base....I'm back to taking some time away...I need it...wife needs it...kid needs it....and the dog....all because I love them and don't want to be angry around them

this keeps up I might get a cat so I have something to punt into the back yard when chad lets a marathon of inherited baserunners to score, chris playing ANYWHERE other than with his balls in the dugout, or EB22 leading off

thanks for letting me vent....

good bye for now....
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Revisiting an old theme

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Diamondbacks&season=2008

Chad Qualls has the LOWEST WPA of any player on the team, worse than Burke. That's pathetic.

Yet Qualls has the second highest pLI among relievers, about the same as Pena.

Melvin continues to put Qualls in high leverage situations. Qualls continues to suck.

Qualls (with some poor defensive support, granted) has hurt the Dbacks enough already.

Stop this shit, please.


Don't forget he's made two errors himself in key situations that led to runs in two of his meltdown games.....so don't let him off the hook too much for the UER.....he was responsible for a few of them himself.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look I agree that Qualls sucked donkey dong and all that but let's assign blame where it belongs. We can't win games with the offensive production we're getting.
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