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Eric Byrnes
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Dylan
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even considering Gonzo's decline, Byrnes regression is bound to counter that. I have Gonzo at .267/.364/.442/.806 and Byrnes at .259/.317/.448/.765. Basically 50 points of OBP.

Of course, I was not against the club bringing Gonzo back for 1 year/$4M if that was an option on the table. Byrnes at 1 year $4M (if he really gets that much of a raise from $2.25M) isn't as good to me, but maybe the more realistic option.

Of course, Shoe brings up the FA list and asks who would be a better investment than Byrnes and immediately I think "David Dellucci". Could we get him for a short term contract at a cheap price? I don't know. Frank Catalanotto is a better option making comparable wages.


As for Hudson, to me, his career year here is the cherry on top and not a real good reason to trade him just because of it. I think he is a good long term solution at 2B, all things considered.
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stu
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did that last year for young pitching. I came up with John Maine and got a lot of arguments on how he was nothing. I don't feel like taking the time.

I don't mean this to sound so churlish. I enjoyed our discussion on Maine last year. I just know from experience that whomever I pick is going to get criticized (which is OK that's what we do), but I don't want to take the time to exhaustively evaluate every player and then defend.

Not that it isn't fun when you are in the mood.

And I know you guys will have examples based on that line.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't get me wrong guys...I am up for anything, as long as it makes sense and improves the team.

Gonzo is gone. So lets move on with our analysis. I agree Melvin can't be trusted to use Byrnes properly in a platoon with Davanon, and his value is less as a corner than as a CF.

So if they can sell high on him and get a good pitcher, I'm all for that. If they do that, you are probably going to end up with a Hairston/Davanon platoon. That could be pretty rough defensively.

What if Aramis Ramirez becomes available by exercising his clause to opt out of his contract? Go after him and move Tracy to LF? Would that be too disruptive, AND expensive?

Oh....and nice job slipping in the John Maine "I told you so"...LOL
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
CG not NEARLY ready


Thats why I threw his name out as a "possiblility". That statement was based on "if" Davanon gets injured LATE in the season and CG is ready.
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McCray
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what about tracy to left, barden comes up to play third?

tracy, 2003 (last full season in aaa):

324/372/456 for a 828 ops

barden, 2006:

298/361/471 for a 839 ops

most of their offensive numbers look similar: hits, doubles, triples... hr's are close, but barden's 16 trumps tracy's 10, despite tracy having more ab's

ahhh! here's why it's a bad idea:

tracy in 2003 had 52 Ks to 41 BB
barden in 2006 has 92 Ks to 44 BB

is the k factor the reason barden isn't considered ready? is it his defense?

what would 92 Ks in AAA translate to in the majors? would it still be less than chad tracy's Ks?

can the team afford to have 2 K monsters in one lineup?

okay, i'm starting to see why barden may not be ready. just as well. if tracy moves to LF the gf will make me move our season ticket seats away from the 3b line.

i'm serious.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something tells me there will be lots of LF Bleacher seats opening up. Razz
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Robert S.
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Hairston is still with the organization come '07, the team has little excuse for not using him in left. The alternatives (hypothetical cheap Gonzo included) aren't likely to outperform him by much at the plate, and are certainly not worth it once salaries + opportunity cost of not trading Byrnes are taken into account.

If some combination of Hairston's attitude/defense/baseball IQ is the problem, the organization is standing on shaky ground given the guy they've had in left since '02. Letting a pre-arb guy who sure as hell looks like he can hit rot in the minors makes no sense to me. I would kill to hear a straight answer from the organization about Hairston.
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McCray
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I would kill to hear a straight answer from the organization about Hairston.


seconded. josh byrnes, are you reading this?
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
is the k factor the reason barden isn't considered ready? is it his defense?


Barden made a couple really nice plays today in the championship game.

I don't think they should monkey around with Tracy anymore. Give him another season at third. He makes it or breaks it in 2007.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McCray wrote:
Quote:
I would kill to hear a straight answer from the organization about Hairston.


seconded. josh byrnes, are you reading this?

Byrnes is the best, most likeable guy to tie ourselves to at the present. Also, why say Hairston is our guy and have him not be so good, or then trade him? That looks like a FO that doesn't know what it's doing. Yeah, it's no better to say Byrnes is the guy and move him, but that would occur with an upgrade in LF that makes it acceptable.
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tmar
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think the organization could be saying it any clearer <regarding Hairston>. We know it is Byrnes, Young and CQ starting in the field next year and Davanon as one of the back ups. Hairston's only possible role would be as our 2nd backup fielder.

I say we keep him anyway. His trade value right now is 0.00 and if we keep him, we at least have the possibility of seeing an extended look at him if someone in the OF goes on the DL.

Also, having his power coming off of the bench would be an asset. IIRC he almost lead the team in HR in 2004 with about 60% of the AB's.

Bottom line is we can't hurt his trade value any by using him.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tmar wrote:
I don't think the organization could be saying it any clearer <regarding Hairston>. We know it is Byrnes, Young and CQ starting in the field next year and Davanon as one of the back ups. Hairston's only possible role would be as our 2nd backup fielder.

I say we keep him anyway. His trade value right now is 0.00 and if we keep him, we at least have the possibility of seeing an extended look at him if someone in the OF goes on the DL.

Also, having his power coming off of the bench would be an asset. IIRC he almost lead the team in HR in 2004 with about 60% of the AB's.

Bottom line is we can't hurt his trade value any by using him.

I don't see Melvin giving Hairston any appreciable number of bats off the bench or as a 2nd backup. It would just be another wasted year for Scott, IMO.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is roster spots. Assuming they continue to go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers:

They can't keep two utility guys AND Tony Clark AND 2 reserve outfielders. In order to make room for Hairston, they would have to go with either just one utility guy, OR dump Tony Clark, and then they don't have a backup first baseman.

I don't think they will do that. Even if they trade or DFA Clark, they will probably bring up Carter to backup 1b and be a lefty PH off the bench.
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dbacks have already destroyed Scotty's trade value and they'll NEVER use him. Might as well free him for whatever they can get. Some team will get a bargain.
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
The problem is roster spots. Assuming they continue to go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers:

They can't keep two utility guys AND Tony Clark AND 2 reserve outfielders. In order to make room for Hairston, they would have to go with either just one utility guy, OR dump Tony Clark, and then they don't have a backup first baseman.

I don't think they will do that. Even if they trade or DFA Clark, they will probably bring up Carter to backup 1b and be a lefty PH off the bench.


What if one of the utility guys is Hammock, who put in some time at 1B for Tucson this past season?
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

moviegeekjn wrote:
Dbacks have already destroyed Scotty's trade value and they'll NEVER use him. Might as well free him for whatever they can get. Some team will get a bargain.


Scotty's mlb K rate and glove at 2B didn't do himself any favors, either. Not to mention it looks like he's not the most adept LF'er. TSWinders was saying that he's nervous any time a ball is hit to LF. Scott is probably just a 'tweener, which doesn't work well for a team loaded with OF'ers. I was thinking they could use him as a really cheap stop-gap for the next 1-3 years, depending on his production, at best.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EvilJuan wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
The problem is roster spots. Assuming they continue to go with 13 position players and 12 pitchers:

They can't keep two utility guys AND Tony Clark AND 2 reserve outfielders. In order to make room for Hairston, they would have to go with either just one utility guy, OR dump Tony Clark, and then they don't have a backup first baseman.

I don't think they will do that. Even if they trade or DFA Clark, they will probably bring up Carter to backup 1b and be a lefty PH off the bench.


What if one of the utility guys is Hammock, who put in some time at 1B for Tucson this past season?


They are gonna want a lefty off the bench. The lineup will be predominantly right handed next year, with only Drew and Tracy and Hudson batting lefthanded. That means either Clark or Carter will be on the roster...unless they trade or sign for some OTHER left handed bat.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DFA Tony Clark immediately. Thank you for 1 great season, and you're welcome for 3 yrs salary.
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