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Eric Byrnes
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stu
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:09 pm    Post subject: Eric Byrnes Reply with quote

Lost in the euphoria over Gonzo leaving is that Bynes is going to be the starting left fielder. I don't see this as much of an upgrade over Gonzo. While I thought (and still think) Brynes used properly had a good upside, playing him everyday in lf is not the answer.

Please, Josh, reconsider this one.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, Davanon will certainly elect to have his option picked up and be back next year. If Byrnes starts against righties are cut in half and Davanon gets those starts, than the overall production should be comparable or greater than whatever Gonzo would give next year.

Obviously going straight chalk and looking at Byrnes vs. lefties and Davanon vs. rightes won't quite give you a proper projection. Byrnes IS going to play against righties. Just not as many.
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McCray
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i know it won't be a straight l/r platoon, but man, if it was, that'd be pretty damn good production from lf.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Davanon can't play 120 games. He'd never hold up long enough.
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Davanon can't play 120 games. He'd never hold up long enough.


But would that be so bad? If he goes down maybe we see another youngster in the lineup.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Random thoughts:
I think a platoon of Davanon/Byrnes will be just as productive as and everyday Gonzo would be next year. A platoon of Gonzo/Bynes might have been the best option - but we all know it wasnt an option...

Either way, i dont think a Byrnes/davanon platoon will be bad at all, and IMO, LF production wont be what determines how the team does in the near future.. the decisions regarding pithcing will...

Next year, we might be asking for Carlos Gonzalez to get a look in LF...

During ST last year, i was thinking that Upton was going to rip though the minors and maybe be ready for a fall callup next year... Just asfter seeing him look like he could hit major league pitching then... I know that was silly...

Upton only had 14 ABs after all
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DBACKSHEELSPANTHS wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Davanon can't play 120 games. He'd never hold up long enough.


But would that be so bad? If he goes down maybe we see another youngster in the lineup.


Just out of curiosity, who do you have in mind?

The Sidewinders list the following outfielders on their roster:

Marland Williams
Jon Weber
Chris Young
Scott Hairston
Carlos Quentin

IIRC, Hammock has also played a number of games in the OF.

Williams only played in 10 games with the Sidewinders in 2006 (and his parent club is Cincinnati); Weber played 46 (and he's 28 years old). Young and Quentin, of course, are already on the roster, and are the presumed starters in CF and RF in '07. Hairston remains the "invisible man" of the franchise.

Who, then, would take the place of a Byrnes/DaVanon platoon in LF?
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have 2 that comes to mind. First, I still want to see Hairston get a real chance. And Carlos Gonzalez could be a possibility.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CG not NEARLY ready
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tmar
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just out of curiosity, why couldn't Davanon play more than 120 games? Is there a physical condition with him that I've not heard of?
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If there is going to be a platoon, than why not Hairston vs. lefties? Just can't see us going with a Byrnes/Davanon platoon next year. We'd be better off packaging those guys and sending them off, signing one guy to mash against righties and using Hairston in a limited role vs. lefties. Figure if we're able to unload the salaries of Estrada, Byrnes, Davanon, and maybe Hudson, there's plenty of $ available to land a big-time LF'er with a serious bat to plant in the middle of the lineup to protect our developing players.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's just injury prone, has never played that much and is 33 years old.

Realistically, with Byrnes and Davanon both on the roster, Byrnes will start 120 games in left, and Davanon about 42.

They each will take turns poaching some starts from Young and Quentin as well. I can see something like

Byrnes 135 Starts
Davanon 60 Starts
Young 140 starts
Quentin 140 starts
Misc. 5th Outfielder 11 starts
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Hugh
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd imagine Josh Byrnes will see what kind of arm we might get for moving Eric Byrnes. If Eric Byrnes could bring back a really live young arm, I bet we'll see Hairston in left field. If Byrnes wouldn't bring back much, I'd imagine we'll let Hairston rot another year in Tucson (if we can), or move him if he has to be on the 25 man roster next year.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hugh wrote:
I'd imagine Josh Byrnes will see what kind of arm we might get for moving Eric Byrnes. If Eric Byrnes could bring back a really live young arm, I bet we'll see Hairston in left field. If Byrnes wouldn't bring back much, I'd imagine we'll let Hairston rot another year in Tucson (if we can), or move him if he has to be on the 25 man roster next year.


IIRC, Hairston is out of options. He's in "use him or lose him" territory...
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:38 pm    Post subject: Re: Eric Byrnes Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Lost in the euphoria over Gonzo leaving is that Bynes is going to be the starting left fielder. I don't see this as much of an upgrade over Gonzo. While I thought (and still think) Brynes used properly had a good upside, playing him everyday in lf is not the answer.

Please, Josh, reconsider this one.



Byrnes in LF isn't an upgrade in offense over Gonzo, Byrnes in LF IS an upgrade over Gonzo on defense though. I think I might have said this before, but one way to improve out pitching both in length of outings and in runs prevented would be to field a good defense behind them. Wink To be able to have two almost CFers maning LF is a huge defensive bonus for us in the short term.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We're definitely going to be chasing more balls down this year.

'06: Gonzo, Green, Byrnes
'07: Byrnes, Young, Quentin

The biggest difference will be on cutting off balls hit in the R/C gap. Those are auto triples, but Q and Young might be enough of an upgrade to take 6-10 triples away.
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David B
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But is Byrnes really that much of an upgrade over Gonzo in the field? Sure, he has a better arm, but when I think of EB, I remember the guy I saw play in Oakland that would dive and leap for balls, and always seem to come up just short. His hustle always played well on Sports Center, but as far as tangible results...meh!
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He'll have Chris Young backing up his spectacular misses. Wink
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FWIW (I know Stu...not much..not much) Byrnes ranks 3rd in the NL in CF Zone Rating, and he has a +6 FRAA from BP

Both metrics may be useless, but at least both Metrics say he has been good. He SHOULD be better in LF than CF, but who knows. These things can work out kinda funny sometimes. In 2004 Byrnes ranked 6th out of 9 in LF Zone Rating. He did not play enough of any one postion in 2005, but his 907mark in 800+ innings in lf would have ranked 2nd in the majors last year, and his total FRAA for 2005 was +14

Gonzo has been +2 FRAA in LF according to BP, and ranks 7th out of 11th among qualified NL Left Fielders in Zone Rating.

Gonzo has been about an average outfielder when it comes to going and getting the ball, and that stands up to observation, but of course his arm makes him overall below average, and he is likely to decline further next year.

I think it is a pretty safe bet that Byrnes will be worth at leat 6-8 runs more than Gonzo on defense next year.

On the downside....Davanon's defense kinda sucks....so it might end up a push.
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stu
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First, the evidence is that Melvin does not understand the concept of platooning so any benefit of a Byrnes/Davanon platoon is out the window.

Second, what Byrnes will make up on defense (and I agree he has been good this year) is given back on offense. Byrnes' OBP is about 50 points below Gonzo's. That is a lot of outs.

Third, Byrnes is going to cost in the 4M range. That is really not that cheap and you have at best an average lf (assuming that Byrnes repeats this year) at a position where you should be able to put a legitmate power bat.

I think I would rather try Callaspo at third and Tracy in left than spend the money on Byrnes. My first choice would be to trade Bynes for pitching (how did the Marlins' cf do this year?) and see if I couldn't upgrade lf through FA.

The one thing Byrnes does is to give a fail safe for Young is he falters.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
My first choice would be to trade Bynes for pitching (how did the Marlins' cf do this year?) and see if I couldn't upgrade lf through FA.

All good points, stu, but imagine the public outrage if Byrnes were to be traded now. "First you changed the uniform colors, then you got rid of our beloved Gonzo, and now you've lied to us about Eric Byrnes being our new leftfielder! You new FO guys are devils!" Laughing
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's why I'm not figuring on them dealing Byrnes away this off season... In effect, he was promised the everyday LF position to replace Gonzo and has been designated as the next "leader in the clubhouse" just as the broadcast booth continue to promote him as a "fan favorite."
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
and see if I couldn't upgrade lf through FA.


Ah,.....the Carlos Lee plot resurfaces..... Wink

Free agent list here

Who do you want? Who is an upgrade? How long do you want to sign them for? How much can you spend?

Byrnes will cost 4 million as you say. Who on that list can be signed for 4 million and be an upgrade?

And finally......Lets all please just assume that Gonzo will continue to decline. Sure, he might not, but the odds strongly suggest that he will. So that needs to be factored in here as well, when "comparing" production.

Byrnes may have just had a career year too...but Stu, I seem to remember YOU being the one who was most UP on the Byrnes signing and argued that he could easily repeat 2004, which he more or less did.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I think I would rather try Callaspo at third and Tracy in left than spend the money on Byrnes. My first choice would be to trade Bynes for pitching (how did the Marlins' cf do this year?) and see if I couldn't upgrade lf through FA.


I always kinda thought that Tracy was going to be the Gonzo replacement in LF.

As good a year as Byrnes has had, I just don't see it being repeated. Better to sell high, and look for somebody else to have a rebound year again for us. It's amazing what Chase does for careers.

Look at Hudson also. The guy is a Gold Glover and he's going to hit .290. We've gotta be able to pull some serious prospects or relief help from some GM looking to shore up their middle-infield D.
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stu
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2006 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was up on Byrnes and he justifed my view even his his numbers are lower than should be because of misuse. However, we don't want to fall in the Pygmalion trap. Byrnes' numbers this year, considering park, are not that great for a lf. For a good defensive cf they are a nice upside, but now he going to be at his lowest and worst use.

Lee will be too expensive. I don't feel like going over the list of FA and evaluating all of them. All of them have flaws if they are inexpensive 9that is why they are inexpensive).

I did that last year for young pitching. I came up with John Maine and got a lot of arguments on how he was nothing. I don't feel like taking the time.

You should not look at just FA. There are likely young players out there who can match what Brynes will produce next year who are rotting in someone's system. This is what a good GM does. Find these young player or undervalued players, not fall in love with the players he has already found and now are at market value.

Heck, Gonzo at 4M might be a better producer next year than Byrnes.
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