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levski
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:22 am    Post subject: Spoilers? Reply with quote

Anyone wants to buy used car parts?

Just kidding...

After today, the Dbacks have 13 games against NL west foes in contention for the wild card/division. 3 vs. LAD, 3 vs. SFG, and 7 (!) vs. SDP. At 71-77, the Dbacks would need to go 6-8 in the remaining 14 games to match their 77-85 record from last year, and at least 7-7 to improve. 10-4 stretch would give them .500 record, but that might be a stretch Smile

Anyhow, I'd love to see the Dbacks string together an awesome two-week shellacking on the NL west and push the Phillies into the playoffs...

So, what is AZ's final record going to be? Let's hear it for the dolphins, let's hear it for the trees...
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levski
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fwiw, Bpro's latest have the Dbacks finishing with... 77 wins...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php
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baldmaga
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

80-82
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about a 12-2 stretch and they make the playoffs as the WC? Wink
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levski
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
How about a 12-2 stretch and they make the playoffs as the WC? Wink


Amen, brother.

Code:

National League
     W    L    GB    Left
 San Diego (14)    77    70    --    15
 Philadelphia    76    72    1.5    14
 San Francisco    74    74    3.5    14
 Florida    74    74    3.5    14
 Cincinnati    73    75    4.5    14
 Houston    71    76    6.0    15
 Arizona    71    77    6.5    14
 Atlanta    71    77    6.5    14
 Colorado    68    80    9.5    14
 Milwaukee    67    81    10.5    14
 Washington    64    84    13.5    14
 Pittsburgh    62    87    16.0    13
 Chi Cubs    60    89    18.0    13



Even though they might have to go 13-1 just to make sure... or better yet, 14-0.
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Robert S.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wins for Webb; losses for everyone else. Improve draft position.
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levski
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless you have one of the top 3 picks, Robert, the difference between #4 and #14 is pretty insignificant. Plus, almost every year a player drops down because of signability/agent issues.

The main reason to have a top 15 pick was that you wouldn't lose your first rounder if you signed a type A free agent. If that's eliminated, then it really makes no difference whether you draft 11th, 15th, or 19th.
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Robert S.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Unless you have one of the top 3 picks, Robert, the difference between #4 and #14 is pretty insignificant. Plus, almost every year a player drops down because of signability/agent issues.

The main reason to have a top 15 pick was that you wouldn't lose your first rounder if you signed a type A free agent. If that's eliminated, then it really makes no difference whether you draft 11th, 15th, or 19th.


In a macro sense, sure. In any given year, though? Hell no. Contrasted with the alternative - pride. Yeah, I'll take the extra losses and be happy to do so.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have we lost since the Gonzo thing broke?

I can totally see a "Major League" moment in the locker room before the game that day.

BoMel: "You may have heard that this is gonna be the last go round for Gonzo"

Byrnes: "Then there's only one thing left to do. Win the whole F*cking thing"

Q: "Yeah"

The next day, BoMel has some full-size figure of Kendrick, and he says:

BoMel: "We have 14 games left. I figure it's gonna take 13 wins to have a shot at the Wild Card. Every time we win, we peel a piece."

And he peels the first piece of what will be Kendrick in one of those mankinis stretched over his shoulders like Borat.
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matt
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Umm, sure gary, whatever turns you on Shocked
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was going for humor. Have you seen that "Borat" picture?
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ncdbackfan
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

now we know why you go by "dirty" gary. Wink
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