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Most Likely Webb Scenario
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Most Likely Webb Scenario?
Pick up $8.5M option for 2010
74%
 74%  [ 29 ]
Buy out option for $2M
10%
 10%  [ 4 ]
Work out compromise for less than $8.5M (only valid if there's actually a deal)
15%
 15%  [ 6 ]
Total Votes : 39

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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nystro wrote:
matt wrote:
I can't remember the situation. Was Sheets able to work out and show teams he could throw? Webb's going to need to do SOMETHING to get a descent one-year contract.


Sheets held an open audition at UL-Monroe in January. He threw some fastballs and some curves... and looked good enough to get $10mil from Billy Beane.


Thanks for the info. That helps a lot.
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SheriffWannaBe wrote:
TAP wrote:
Two seasons in a row unable to pitch.


Just playing Devil's advocate.
In his defense, though, he did try to avoid surgery until, what, August of last year?

We've talked about arbitrary end points of performance; I view this as arbitrary end points of injury.
Had he gone under the knife in April, May, or even June of '09, could your statement still be said?

Someone will give him more for guaranteed, (unwarranted?) money for next season than most Americans will make in a lifetime, though, especially if he impresses at an open throwing session over the winter.


That's a pretty big if for a guy who hasn't thrown off a mound in forever.

I hope for his family's sake that they've saved some of that first $20M because it might take him a long time to make the next $20M
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
More successful, not by much.


Sheets: 31.1 WAR, 8 seasons (2010 not included).
Webb: 33.2 WAR, 6 seasons (2009, 2010 not included).

What am I missing?
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misterx
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
misterx wrote:
TAP wrote:
Bobster wrote:
it's sounding like the return of brandon webb is becoming more and more unlikely this year -

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/Blog/NickPiecoro/91402

Webb's done this year. I wonder how he's going to get his big FA contract without an in-season audition proving he's healthy enough to pitch.

Ben Sheets missed all 2009 and got 10 mil from the A's this year

Webb's been sitting idle for two straight years now.


I thought Sheets missed more of 2008 Embarassed
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
nystro wrote:
matt wrote:
I can't remember the situation. Was Sheets able to work out and show teams he could throw? Webb's going to need to do SOMETHING to get a descent one-year contract.

Sheets held an open audition at UL-Monroe in January. He threw some fastballs and some curves... and looked good enough to get $10mil from Billy Beane.

Thanks for the info. That helps a lot.

Billy screwed himself.

One of these years is not like the others.
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SheriffWannaBe wrote:
matt wrote:
More successful, not by much.


Sheets: 31.1 WAR, 8 seasons (2010 not included).
Webb: 33.2 WAR, 6 seasons (2009, 2010 not included).

What am I missing?


Context. Sheets got off to a crappy start of his career. From 2004-2008 their ERA+ were 134 (Sheets) and 141 (Webb). Not that far apart.
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
Context. Sheets got off to a crappy start of his career. From 2004-2008 their ERA+ were 134 (Sheets) and 141 (Webb). Not that far apart.


What about from 2005 - 2008? Wink
Again, arbitrary end points.

Sheets had one ridiculous (magical?) year.
He's been an over-glorified, approx. 4-win pitcher ever since...
which is still good, just more in the arena of James Shields than Brandon Webb.
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David B
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Up until late season 2008, Sheets was a number one guy in a rotation when he was healthy. Unfortunately (as we've seen yet again this season), the guy can't seem to keep from getting injured. His ERA+ isn't better because it includes starts he made over several seasons trying to pitch through injury (before he was either shut down or DL-ed).

It really doesn't make much difference how good Webb was earlier in his career or how much better than Sheets he was. If Webb can't step on a mound and prove it to at least one team (like Sheets did with Oakland) matt's point that BW won't be seeing a big $$ contract is spot on. Most people thought Oakland was crazy to give Sheets the money they did (his workouts were only so/so and there really weren't any teams bidding against the A's), and seeing how that turned out, I doubt any team is going to be anxious to repeat that mistake.
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 11:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
Most people thought Oakland was crazy to give Sheets the money they did (his workouts were only so/so and there really weren't any teams bidding against the A's), and seeing how that turned out, I doubt any team is going to be anxious to repeat that mistake.


To clarify, I don't think there's any way in heck a team gives Webby anything near the money Oakland gave Sheets.

More likely, I think a team will make an incentive-laden gamble on him like Theo did on Penny and Smoltz before last season, only with less guaranteed dollars.

My original comment -- more successful past, fewer total injuries -- was more fuel for the conversation and a nod to how silly the Sheets contract was than anything.
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Guitar Salad
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was talking with a coworker about this same scenario earlier today using Sheets as the example. Not to say that that's the way it will go, but there was another question brought up. Where would Webb lie in the free agent rankings since he hasn't pitched the last two years? I can't imagine him being higher than a B, but would the team consider offering arbitration if he reaches that level?

My feeling is that it will depend on any progress made between now and the arbitration deadline. So if Webb gets to the point that he looks like he can throw from a mound without any troubles, do the D'Backs take the risk of offering arbitration at the chance of having a healthy Webb to trade midseason in 2011 or get some sort of compensation pick when he doesn't accept?
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Free Agent "Type" assignments are statistically based off the previous two seasons -- in this case, 2009 and 2010.
Webb cannot be a Type B.

UPDATE: After checking the latest rankings projections, Webb has a type "score" of 29.252, placing him directly between two of Ed Wade's finest, Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris.
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Guitar Salad
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for that. I was thinking it was the past 3 seasons. That makes all my logic and thought pretty useless. Laughing
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm really bummed out by the demise of Brandon Webb.

I really enjoyed watching him pitch, and always felt very proud that he was a D Back and developed in our system. It was always fun pointing out to people that he pitched like 60% of his games in the two best hitters parks in baseball, (Chase and Coors). Hence his incredible ERA+

His career 142 ERA+ ranks 11th all time for pitchers with over 1000 IP.

11th !!! All Time !!!!

And it's not like he was throwing small innings totals, (relative to his era) during his 2003-2008 career.

Innings Pitched s c a p y
2005 NL 229.0 (6th)
2006 NL 235.0 (2nd)
2007 NL 236.3 (1st)
2008 NL 226.7 (4th)

IP leaders 2003-2008

Code:
Rk             Player     IP From   To   G  GS CG SHO  W  L W-L% ERA+  OPS
1        Mark Buehrle 1336.0 2003 2008 199 199 14   3 83 66 .557  119 .744
2     Livan Hernandez 1335.0 2003 2008 201 201 22   2 78 70 .527  102 .784
3        Brandon Webb 1315.2 2003 2008 198 197 15   8 87 62 .584  144 .659
4       Johan Santana 1305.0 2003 2008 213 186  9   6 98 42 .700  156 .624
5      Javier Vazquez 1272.0 2003 2008 197 196 11   2 76 73 .510  107 .726
6          Barry Zito 1270.2 2003 2008 204 203  4   1 76 76 .500  107 .714
7         CC Sabathia 1269.0 2003 2008 188 188 24  10 87 57 .604  127 .682
8     Carlos Zambrano 1266.0 2003 2008 193 193  8   3 91 51 .641  133 .665
9         Greg Maddux 1258.0 2003 2008 205 205  7   1 82 75 .522  104 .731
10         Roy Oswalt 1247.1 2003 2008 190 187 12   5 96 52 .649  136 .696
11        Jon Garland 1246.0 2003 2008 195 193  8   5 84 62 .575  105 .764
12         Derek Lowe 1236.1 2003 2008 203 201  8   2 85 67 .559  111 .706
13       Roy Halladay 1232.0 2003 2008 173 172 35   8 94 42 .691  140 .653
14        Jamie Moyer 1224.0 2003 2008 198 197  6   1 82 60 .577  103 .768
15        John Lackey 1216.1 2003 2008 189 188 12   7 82 59 .582  116 .722
16         Tim Hudson 1205.1 2003 2008 182 181 12   7 82 51 .617  124 .685
17         Jake Peavy 1163.1 2003 2008 182 182  6   3 80 55 .593  125 .663
18        Jeff Suppan 1160.2 2003 2008 192 191  4   2 79 59 .572  102 .786
19      Andy Pettitte 1147.1 2003 2008 186 183  3   1 87 57 .604  115 .723
20      Tim Wakefield 1126.0 2003 2008 184 180  5   0 73 63 .537  106 .733
21     Kevin Millwood 1111.1 2003 2008 184 184 11   3 67 65 .508  100 .752
22       Mike Mussina 1108.2 2003 2008 182 181  6   3 88 51 .633  111 .722
23       Aaron Harang 1099.1 2003 2008 176 173 11   5 64 62 .508  106 .766
24          Ted Lilly 1095.1 2003 2008 189 188  2   1 81 61 .570  107 .737
25         Kyle Lohse 1093.0 2003 2008 200 181  5   3 61 65 .484   97 .783
Rk             Player     IP From   To   G  GS CG SHO  W  L W-L% ERA+  OPS
26         Doug Davis 1081.1 2003 2008 183 182  4   2 60 62 .492  110 .748
27          Gil Meche 1070.1 2003 2008 184 181  4   1 66 60 .524  101 .752
28        Tom Glavine 1068.2 2003 2008 177 177  4   3 63 60 .512  105 .754
29    Jarrod Washburn 1068.1 2003 2008 177 175  6   3 52 74 .413  101 .765
30         Ben Sheets 1060.0 2003 2008 162 162 16   3 64 57 .529  124 .683
31       Josh Beckett 1057.0 2003 2008 169 168  5   2 81 53 .604  117 .697
32     Bronson Arroyo 1052.2 2003 2008 176 164  5   1 62 56 .525  113 .749
33   Dontrelle Willis 1046.2 2003 2008 170 169 15   8 68 56 .548  107 .741
34       Kenny Rogers 1042.2 2003 2008 173 170  3   2 74 50 .597  105 .782
35        Brett Myers 1041.0 2003 2008 210 161  7   3 65 55 .542  101 .764
36      Randy Johnson 1031.0 2003 2008 160 160 13   3 71 54 .568  119 .685
37       Carlos Silva 1014.1 2003 2008 219 153  6   2 54 61 .470   93 .808
38         Brad Penny 1006.1 2003 2008 171 168  1   0 68 51 .571  108 .735
39      Jason Marquis 1002.0 2003 2008 182 160  4   2 65 55 .542   96 .776


As messed up and dissappointing as the last two years have been, lets not forget he was the best homegrown pitcher this organization may EVER see.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
As messed up and dissappointing as the last two years have been, lets not forget he was the best homegrown pitcher this organization may EVER see.



Thanks, Shoe. I haven't forgotten. I talk crap, but at the end of the day, i am sure i will be watching webb where ever he ends up.
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