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Brandon Allen
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 16313
Location: In front of my computer

PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Linear weights run values peg a walk value at about 70% the value of a single. Of course it depends on the situation. That number is all situations averaged out. A leadoff walk and leadoff single have the same run value.
A single with a RISP and first base open has significantly more run value than a walk. But when you add it all up, a walk is 70% as good as a hit.....in total.

Code:
MOB   1b     2b     3b     hr     bb      k   out
---   0.29   0.49   0.68   1.00   0.29   -0.20   -0.20
x--   0.49   0.97   1.36   1.74   0.43   -0.32   -0.36
-x-   0.72   1.00   1.16   1.60   0.23   -0.39   -0.34
--x   0.72   0.86   1.00   1.51   0.21   -0.48   -0.29
xx-   0.93   1.54   1.94   2.38   0.56   -0.52   -0.48
x-x   0.88   0.93   1.77   2.22   0.38   -0.61   -0.46
-xx   1.17   1.46   1.62   2.07   0.23   -0.70   -0.56
xxx   1.38   2.00   2.40   2.86   1.00   -0.82   -0.68

ROB   0.73   1.14   1.49   1.92   0.42   -0.44   -0.42

avg   0.49   0.79   1.06   1.42   0.35   -0.31   -0.30


Tango
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Jdub
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Joined: 10 May 2009
Posts: 3582
Location: Mesa, AZ

PostPosted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

xjwheelr wrote:
Jdub wrote:
dbacks_Nation wrote:
I'd rather have people hit for average rather than power.


Have you ever heard the saying, "a walk is as good as a hit"?


But it's not. A walk can't score a runner from second; a single can.


I'm talking about OBP + power hitters compared to average + no power hitters.
Of course there's a huge amount of different situations...
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ValueArb
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Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 1896
Location: Post trade WAR, Quentin 3.3, Haren 14

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks_Nation wrote:
I'd rather have people hit for average rather than power.


You'd rather lose than win? Slugging and On base percentages have much better correlations to winning than batting average.

And who cares what you prefer? Brandon is who he is, he has certain strengths and weaknesses. If he turns out to hit like Adam Dunn, but also is able to provide good defense at first, he'll be a super valuable player. You want to send that back?

Fans always get hung up on what their players can't do, forgetting what they can.
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True fans sense a special pain from an owner too cheap to ever field a competitive team, and smile when the idiot GM lackey trades for a crappy starter because his teammates scored lots of runs and held most of his leads.
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Guitar Salad
Everyday Player


Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 964
Location: Tempe, AZ

PostPosted: Fri Jul 30, 2010 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brandon made Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet today. Check it out.
Link.
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