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Magglio

 
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:10 pm    Post subject: Magglio Reply with quote

Oh man - this sucks...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5407591

Quote:
DETROIT -- Tigers outfielder Magglio Ordonez will miss 6-8 weeks after breaking his right ankle in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Ordonez, who had been limited to designated hitter duties the past week because of a sore ankle, injured himself trying to score from first on Miguel Cabrera's third-inning double.

Ordonez remained on the ground after sliding, and was eventually helped off the field by trainers.


The worst part is this...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/ordonez-out-68-weeks-option-will-not-vest.html

Quote:
The injury could prove to be costly for Ordonez as he needs 540 plate appearances or 135 starts in order for his 2011 option to vest.

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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know what would've sucked?
If that option vested.
Magglio should be happy that he wasn't benched last year so last year's option wouldn't have vested. God knows they had reason to after his shit first half last year.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah, it would have been real smart to bench a career .300 hitter because of a bad first half.

The average fan might have benched him, but not somebody like Jim Leyland.

Ordonez 2nd half : .375/.438/.540

I really don't think the tigers "Should" have benched him after his bad first half.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
yeah, it would have been real smart to bench a career .300 hitter because of a bad first half.


Actually, it would have.
Not that batting average matters, but that .300 hitter hit under .250 three of the first four months in '09.
Code:
Month      wOBA    wRC+
Mar/Apr   .300     80
May       .352     115
June      .263     56
July      .321     94


So, well below average two months, below average one month, and above average one month.
When you have a vesting option kicking in for 18MM (and if both years vest, will be worth 36MM) and putting up a 1.5 WAR season, that shit ain't gonna fly.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, it WOULDN'T have been smart to bench him.

You are looking backwards through the looking glass at a small sample size. Any reasonable method of projecting his future performance while he was in the slump, whether by traditional, managerial methods, or more advanced statistical methods, would have resulted in Mags being projected to come out of his slump at any moment and start hitting again. The fact that it took an extra month was not knowable at the time.

You don't bench a hitter like that when you are in a pennant race because he has a vesting option somewhere off in the future. The REAL world doesn't work like that. Teams try to get themselves in the position to win, and when they are in a position to win and contend, they have to play their best players.

I realize you have a decent grasp of advanced sabermetric concepts. So do I. Wink But what I am trying to help you with is application. I bust your balls for reason. It's tough love. Laughing
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing

Joking aside, he was struggling enough to be benched (and was for a bit) before he hit a timely hot streak.
And the Tigers actually had someone last year that could replace Magglio, and then some. Wink
His name is Ryan Raburn. He put up more WAR than Magglio in 227 less at bats.

Magglio wasn't playing well enough to warrant playing time, especially in a pennant race, not even considering his ridiculous salary for someone who might become a below average player. His power vanished. The only reason his numbers look respectable overall is because of the SCORCHING HOT last few months. But don't fool yourself, he was awful for the first half.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wasn't arguing he was awful in the first half. He was. But he got hot in the second half. It all came out in the wash.

You would only bench him if you were convinced he was DONE....in decline, which, based on his second half last year, and his 125 OPS+ this year, he clearly wasn't/isn't
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SheriffWannaBe
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 24, 2010 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jdub wrote:
The Tigers actually had someone last year that could replace Magglio, and then some. Wink
His name is Ryan Raburn.


Laughing
Could I perhaps interest you in some bridges?
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
I wasn't arguing he was awful in the first half. He was. But he got hot in the second half. It all came out in the wash.

You would only bench him if you were convinced he was DONE....in decline, which, based on his second half last year, and his 125 OPS+ this year, he clearly wasn't/isn't


I just noticed your bag. Laughing
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
I wasn't arguing he was awful in the first half. He was. But he got hot in the second half. It all came out in the wash.

You would only bench him if you were convinced he was DONE....in decline, which, based on his second half last year, and his 125 OPS+ this year, he clearly wasn't/isn't


So you're saying that Leyland had some magical crystal ball to forsee that he would bounce back?
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SheriffWannaBe wrote:
Jdub wrote:
The Tigers actually had someone last year that could replace Magglio, and then some. Wink
His name is Ryan Raburn.


Laughing
Could I perhaps interest you in some bridges?


Nah, I'm just fine.
Raburn: 261 ABs, 1.6 WAR, career BABIP .314, 2009 BABIP .323
Ordonez: 465 ABs, 1.5 WAR, career BABIP .313, 2009 BABIP .344
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

B. O. N. D. wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
I wasn't arguing he was awful in the first half. He was. But he got hot in the second half. It all came out in the wash.

You would only bench him if you were convinced he was DONE....in decline, which, based on his second half last year, and his 125 OPS+ this year, he clearly wasn't/isn't


I just noticed your bag. Laughing


we all got bags now!
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David B
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you mean Ryan Raburn of the career 96 OPS+ (825 plate appearances over 5 seasons) and the 61 OPS+ in 156 plate appearances this season? And you're comparing him to Magglio Ordonez, he of the career 127 OPS+? Yes, Ordonez had a down year in 2009 (which still produced a 109 OPS+) and Raburn was reasonably productive in limited action (a career best 128 OPS+ in spotted playing time). But 2010 shows the follies of discounting a careers worth of information (Ordonez is back up to 126) for the small sample size of a few months.
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Straws. Grasping.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
Do you mean Ryan Raburn of the career 96 OPS+ (825 plate appearances over 5 seasons) and the 61 OPS+ in 156 plate appearances this season? And you're comparing him to Magglio Ordonez, he of the career 127 OPS+? Yes, Ordonez had a down year in 2009 (which still produced a 109 OPS+) and Raburn was reasonably productive in limited action (a career best 128 OPS+ in spotted playing time). But 2010 shows the follies of discounting a careers worth of information (Ordonez is back up to 126) for the small sample size of a few months.


I said this in another thread: OPS+ only handles hitting. WAR handles fielding too.
And you're going to use stats for this year, a year that hasn't even happened yet?
We're talking about 2009 here, you can't see into the future.
Point: Raburn outplayed Magglio in 2009. That's enough reason to bench him and not let him earn his ridiculous salary for 2010. Magglio's performance is nowhere close to what he's being paid. The point wasn't to say that Raburn is better than Magglio.
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