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Diamondbacks and Upton close to 6 year extension
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THE SHADOW
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sb24ws2005 wrote:
Locking up Reynolds next?


Not sure if I heard this right or not but $11 million for 3arb years is not going to cut it.

How does this dynamic play out with J-UP getting his and if they dont sign Reynolds how will that play out this year?
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

B. O. N. D. wrote:
TAP wrote:
Dave Burns: Pros and cons of Upton's deal


Quote:
You never know how guys are going to react when given a ton of guaranteed money. And yeah, I'm talking to you mister I-got-my-own-TV-show/somersaulting-in-the-outfield/.260-career-hitter/lead-the-free-world-in-infield-popups/fighting-to-be-a-4th-outfielder-in-Seattle/Eric Byrnes.


Mad


There's a huge difference. Upton is already rich from his signing bonus. I'm not worried about Upton becoming content. Byrnes was an 8th round pick. I couldn't find what his signing bonus was, but I can't imagine much.
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Byrnes didn't become content he just went back to being Eric Byrnes. His AMAZING year was just a 103 OPS+ with a lot of stolen bases and showmanship.
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Dre
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

More details on the #s emerging

From Heyman

Quote:
so upton gets $22.5 mil thru arb yrs, 28.75 in 2 free-agent years. then he's free at age 28.


would guess its structured close to this

.5/5/7/10/14/15
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misterx
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

press conference set for 3 pm to announce upton deal. per Nick's twitter
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
Byrnes didn't become content he just went back to being Eric Byrnes. His AMAZING year was just a 103 OPS+ with a lot of stolen bases and showmanship.


Agreed. And it is even worse. The contract was signed during the 103 season. EB's prior OPS+ were 96(2006), 75 !!!, and 111. He was 31 and a flake. His primary asset was his speed and and his athletic ability. At 32-35, neither was going to improve.

Everyone except the Dbacks' FO knew this. For Burn's (lots of Burns/byrnes floating around0 to compare this signing to EB's contract is just foolish.

It is comparable to Braun's who was a weak defender. The age differecne between Braun and Upton cuts both ways. On one hand, Upton has an incredible upset because of his age. On the other, he is so young you can't be sure how he will handle this.

I think he will do fine. My primary concern is his injury history, but because there is such an upside to this contract, I approve.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic today wrote:
The Diamondbacks will announce a six-year, $51.25 million contract extension with right fielder Justin Upton at 3 p.m. here in Tucson.

The deal ranks as the second-largest in franchise history, behind the $52.4 million deal the club gave Randy Johnson before the 1999 season.

Here are the top five in club history:

1. Randy Johnson, four years, $52.4 million (1999-2002)

2. Justin Upton, six years, $51.25 million (2010-2015)

3. Matt Williams, six years, $49.5 million (1998-2003)

4. Randy Johnson, three years, $48 million (2003-2005)

5. Dan Haren, four years, $44.75 million (2009-2012)
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JoshByrnesWhenIPee
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dre wrote:
More details on the #s emerging

From Heyman

Quote:
so upton gets $22.5 mil thru arb yrs, 28.75 in 2 free-agent years. then he's free at age 28.


would guess its structured close to this

.5/5/7/10/14/15


Close!

Quote:
upton's big numbers (in millions): 1.25 bonus, 500 grand in 2010, then 4.25 in '11, 6.75 in '12, 9.75 in '13, 14.25 in '14, 14.5 in '15


http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/9934327525
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matt
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Damn, I'll be almost 40 when his contract expires.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
Damn, I'll be almost 40 when his contract expires.

me too!
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic today wrote:
The Diamondbacks will announce a six-year, $51.25 million contract extension with right fielder Justin Upton at 3 p.m. here in Tucson.

The deal ranks as the second-largest in franchise history, behind the $52.4 million deal the club gave Randy Johnson before the 1999 season.

Here are the top five in club history:

1. Randy Johnson, four years, $52.4 million (1999-2002)

2. Justin Upton, six years, $51.25 million (2010-2015)

3. Matt Williams, six years, $49.5 million (1998-2003)

4. Randy Johnson, three years, $48 million (2003-2005)

5. Dan Haren, four years, $44.75 million (2009-2012)


So of the 4 besides Upton, we have 2 loses, one win (but a big one) and one incomplete.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
TAP wrote:
Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic today wrote:
The Diamondbacks will announce a six-year, $51.25 million contract extension with right fielder Justin Upton at 3 p.m. here in Tucson.

The deal ranks as the second-largest in franchise history, behind the $52.4 million deal the club gave Randy Johnson before the 1999 season.

Here are the top five in club history:

1. Randy Johnson, four years, $52.4 million (1999-2002)

2. Justin Upton, six years, $51.25 million (2010-2015)

3. Matt Williams, six years, $49.5 million (1998-2003)

4. Randy Johnson, three years, $48 million (2003-2005)

5. Dan Haren, four years, $44.75 million (2009-2012)


So of the 4 besides Upton, we have 2 loses, one win (but a big one) and one incomplete.

RJ 1999 contract - win
MW 1998 contract - $$$$$$$
RJ 2003 contract - win (should have been Cy Young winner in 2004)
Haren - win so far
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
matt wrote:
Damn, I'll be almost 40 when his contract expires.

me too!


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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
matt wrote:
Damn, I'll be almost 40 when his contract expires.

me too!


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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW stu, your last post inspired my thought process while at the gym tonight. My next Toastmasters speech will be on the biggest boom and bust contracts in Phoenix sports history. Gracias for the mental nudge.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heard Justin Upton making the interview rounds this afternoon on the various radio shows and clearly he sounds more confident this year than he did last year. He made several substantive points about the team and their approach, but one of his opinions stuck with me. Said Upton, "We're the best team in the west this year."

If players believe that, they're more likely to play like they're the best. Hopefully his attitude is infectious.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This deal looks even better when you look at it in terms of economic trends and cycles. While I'm skeptical that pro sports revenue growth will ever return to the massive growth rates it had pre recession, there are several reasons to think that Justins free agent years will be a bargain. I'm not looking at Justins fangraphs page but my guess is their scale had him worth $20mish last year when an average starting position player was getting $5mish. When we exit the recession fully, disposable income growth is going to drive baseball revenues with it and it's reasonable to think in years 5-6 the average starting position player will be making $7m+. So we locked up two peak years from a guy who was worth 3x to 4x the average player in his age 21 season for probably only 2x the average player cost in 2015, when he might be easily worth more than 4x.

And if you think about the effects of our governments debt binge, inflation seems like an evenual result. 10% inflation over a few years could easily push the average starting salary close to $10m, and the free agency value of an Upton season to $40m
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
stu wrote:
TAP wrote:
Nick Piecoro / The Arizona Republic today wrote:
The Diamondbacks will announce a six-year, $51.25 million contract extension with right fielder Justin Upton at 3 p.m. here in Tucson.

The deal ranks as the second-largest in franchise history, behind the $52.4 million deal the club gave Randy Johnson before the 1999 season.

Here are the top five in club history:

1. Randy Johnson, four years, $52.4 million (1999-2002)

2. Justin Upton, six years, $51.25 million (2010-2015)

3. Matt Williams, six years, $49.5 million (1998-2003)

4. Randy Johnson, three years, $48 million (2003-2005)

5. Dan Haren, four years, $44.75 million (2009-2012)


So of the 4 besides Upton, we have 2 loses, one win (but a big one) and one incomplete.

RJ 1999 contract - win
MW 1998 contract - $$$$$$$
RJ 2003 contract - win (should have been Cy Young winner in 2004)
Haren - win so far


Glad to be of help. Out of context, I might agree that RJ's 2003 contract was a push. He was great in 2004 and I agree he deserved the CY.

However, in context, he had a short year (114 ip) in 2003 with a 4+ era when we really needed him. His great 2004 was in the context of a team that was awful so paying 15M for a great season wasn't as rewarding.

The trade to the Yankees didn't net anything that help put us back into contention and may have hurt as it gave Moorad a chance to reward a former client (Shawn Green) and eventually we got Chris Young for Vazquez.

I am judging these with 100% hindsight just to see what the actual track record is. I agree with the thought that a team should pay superstars who are in their prime and if you can get a rising star a a good price (e.g. Haren or Upton) that is a good bet.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
BTW stu, your last post inspired my thought process while at the gym tonight. My next Toastmasters speech will be on the biggest boom and bust contracts in Phoenix sports history. Gracias for the mental nudge.


always think about average player salaries when you compare historical contracts to today's. and factor in risk, the longer the deal, the more risk. Increasing revenues help mitigate some of that risk over time but aren't guaranteed. If the Yankees give A-Rod $30m a year on a seven year deal, it probably means they would have been happy to give him $40m a year on a 2-3 year deal.

And lastly, consider performance expectation. Due to relative ages it's a pretty good bet to think A-Rods performance will decline over his agreement, while Justins won't. Of course that wasn't true for CY, but in general it is. Flippers performance expectation wasn't grand, but a reasonable expectation was far higher than what we got.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are 39 players to have ammassed 1500 or more PA's through their age 22 season since baseball was integrated by Jackie Robinson in 1947.

Of those 39 players, Justin ranks 16th in OPS+ so far....(112).
Assuming he does not suffer injury, and gets over 1700 PA's, if you put the minimum PA cutoff at 1700, then he will move up to 14th.

He may not turn out to be a Griffey/Arod caliber player.....but he is at least as good as an Andruw Jones peak player, and could end up somewhere in between the likes of Griffey/Arod and Andruw Jones.

(Don't laugh at Jones.......up until a few years ago, he was a pretty damn good player)

Code:
Rk                Player OPS+   PA   Age   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1          Eddie Mathews  153 1875 20-22 .279 .384 .560 .944
2          Mickey Mantle  148 2203 19-22 .296 .391 .505 .896
3            Ken Griffey  138 2422 19-22 .301 .366 .494 .860
4             Hank Aaron  134 1834 20-22 .310 .354 .521 .874
5         Miguel Cabrera  133 1716 20-22 .300 .366 .523 .889
6           Cesar Cedeno  132 2227 19-22 .301 .348 .480 .828
7        Tony Conigliaro  132 2047 19-22 .276 .339 .510 .849
8         Frank Robinson  132 1968 20-22 .295 .369 .530 .899
9         Alex Rodriguez  131 2271 18-22 .313 .364 .543 .906
10           Boog Powell  131 1508 19-22 .264 .345 .488 .833
11        Orlando Cepeda  130 1906 20-22 .309 .347 .511 .858
12      Rickey Henderson  127 1613 20-22 .300 .396 .395 .791
13             Al Kaline  127 2575 18-22 .307 .366 .479 .846
14          Johnny Bench  125 1963 19-22 .281 .330 .492 .823
15           Vada Pinson  124 2181 19-22 .313 .362 .489 .851
16          Justin Upton  112 1569 19-22 .273 .355 .484 .838
17           Ted Simmons  110 1536 18-22 .290 .339 .419 .757
18            Terry Puhl  108 1584 20-22 .290 .354 .377 .731
19          Andruw Jones  107 1890 19-22 .260 .335 .476 .811
20   Claudell Washington  106 1956 19-22 .285 .324 .398 .722
21        Roberto Alomar  103 1959 20-22 .283 .339 .379 .718
22          Ruben Sierra  102 1775 20-22 .260 .302 .454 .756
23           Rusty Staub  101 2003 19-22 .248 .321 .371 .692
24         Adrian Beltre   99 1918 19-22 .270 .335 .430 .765
25       Garry Templeton   99 1544 20-22 .299 .319 .405 .724
Rk                Player OPS+   PA   Age   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
26            Buddy Bell   98 1665 20-22 .263 .319 .372 .692
27             Ron Santo   97 1716 20-22 .254 .327 .415 .742
28        Ivan Rodriguez   96 1666 19-22 .273 .315 .405 .720
29         Alan Trammell   95 1724 19-22 .280 .348 .364 .712
30         Butch Wynegar   94 1761 20-22 .251 .338 .349 .687
31          Ed Kranepool   93 2364 17-22 .252 .305 .371 .676
32            Bob Bailey   93 1974 19-22 .252 .322 .361 .683
33         Carl Crawford   90 1611 20-22 .283 .315 .400 .715
34           Robin Yount   90 2869 18-22 .271 .308 .362 .671
35            Eddie Yost   90 1664 20-22 .247 .350 .348 .698
36        Edgar Renteria   87 2395 19-22 .284 .340 .369 .709
37      Roberto Clemente   86 1548 20-22 .275 .302 .390 .692
38     Aurelio Rodriguez   84 1644 19-22 .241 .286 .352 .638
39        Bill Mazeroski   84 1989 19-22 .264 .302 .386 .688
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theguyonthecouch
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good work Shoewizard. If Justin was more consistent and if he hadn't been injured the past few years then he would be higher up on that list.
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Jdub
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good stuff.
It's unfair to expect him to be Junior anyways.
He still hasn't reached his peak, in my opinion.
The year he doesn't start off with Adam LaRoche syndrome is the year he's contending for MVP.
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