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What happened to Rizzo's farm system?

 
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 4:38 pm    Post subject: What happened to Rizzo's farm system? Reply with quote

Mike Rizzo was head of our farm system from 2000-2006, and by the time of his departure our farm system was high regarded, and ranked in the top 5. Since then it's rating has plummeted. What happened? Let's look at the talent that was produced. I'm not going to rank Upton who was drafted by Rizzo and signed by Josh, and would have been by any scout/gm as he was consensus #1 by a large margin. And I'm trying to just measure the farm system's results, just players the farm system signed/drafted, not guys who came via trade, so point out anyone here who doesn't belong.

Successes
1) Brandon Webb - best pitcher in baseball for 4 years.
2) Dan Uggla - Mediocre 2b in Rizzo's system who became allstar after Rizzo left and we left him unprotected.
3) Mark Reynolds - Still has all-star potential, but hasn't performed consistently yet and maybe his low contact rate makes that impossible.
4) Snyder - No allstar but probably exceeded expectations.
5) Carlos Gonzalez - Has been pretty good, not sure if he'll be a regular all-star but still has that potential.

Disappointments
1) Conor Jackson - Good hitter, poor defender at first, got hurt too much. 2) Carlos Quentin - Sandwiched one great season between a bunch of injuries and sucky seasons, has been terrible ever since 2008.
3) Stephen Drew - Rated top position player in draft, fell to us, but has never been more than a league average player.
4) Micah Owings - Good at what he wasn't being paid to do, lousy pitcher with us and Cincinnati.
5) Bonifacio - Fast but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.
6) Chad Tracy - One great season, a career of mediocrity.
7) Scott Hairson- Hate to call him a disappointment, but once expectations were higher than just being a decent outfielder.
Cool Montero - Talent is there at the plate, can't stay healthy.
9) Parra - a 4th outfielder in the making.
10) Ryal - a fringe MLB player in his prime.


All in all, most of the talent that produced that high rating for the farm system never developed, either here, or when traded, elsewhere.

Rizzo's list is long because his draftees have had 4-10 years to develop. Players developed during Josh Byrne's tenure only have 1-4 years in development. So we have to look into the minor league system to get an idea of what talent is there, to even approximate what is there.

Successes
1) Brett Anderson - Top 25 highest value pitchers in baseball last year at age 22.
2) Max Scherzer - He still can't get into the 6th inning, but is very effective until then, and an above average starter, 41st most valuable ranking last year inflated given some pretty soft opposing lineups.

Potential
1) Jarrod Parker - Dominant minor league starter at a very young age, and possible rotation member this year until he had Tommy John last year. Future star potential.
2) Dan Schlereth - Already traded, amazing k numbers, awful BB numbers, potential star closer if he solves the 2nd problem.
3) Clay Zavada - Picked out of no-where in the 30th round, became dominant minor league left handed reliever, then was lost to Tommy John surgery this year (one of the hidden blows to our bullpen).
4) Bryan Augenstein - Shot up through system with command, but foundered when he hit the majors and in AAA, he might not have the stuff. But he's still only 23.
5) John Hester - Decent bat for a catcher, but not likely to be a star, just a useful backup, already 26.

Our current system hasn't yet developed any good position players, which forced the trades for Abreu, and Brandon Allen. But it's produced some fantastic pitchers in a very short time.
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Bobster
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i have a hard time criticizing Montero for a few injuries if you're not going to do the same with Parker. and i wouldn't hold a GM or scout accountable for injuries unless they're re-existing or the product of something like Max's delivery motion.

i would include drew and montero among the successes, although none of the players other than webb and uggla have been all-stars.

the real problem with this team had been player development. to many of the players have arrived at the majors with huge holes in their games (the most obvious being the enormous strikeout rates for upton and reynolds)
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The Goat
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Miguel Montero is a disappointment, but John Hester is Potential? Montero is 2 months older than Hester and has produced a WAR of 5 higher than Hester.

Tracy had a great year which is more than a lot of the current farm system guys can say. We did get 7.7 WAR from him at league minimum prices. It isn't Rizzo's fault that the team signed him to a long term deal.
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dbacks08
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scherzer was a Rizzo draft pick. His was signed a year later, hence his first year in the minors was after Rizzo left, but he was still a Rizzo pick. Same goes for Anderson. Two more successes for Rizzo.

I agree with the GOAT about calling Montero a disappointment and Hester "potential".
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dbacks watcher
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't forget Quentin was drafted, signed, and developed under Rizzo.

I agree biggest problem has been in developing players under Hinch/Byrnes. Big holes in hitting and playing fundamentals.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks08 wrote:
Scherzer was a Rizzo draft pick. His was signed a year later, hence his first year in the minors was after Rizzo left, but he was still a Rizzo pick. Same goes for Anderson. Two more successes for Rizzo.

I agree with the GOAT about calling Montero a disappointment and Hester "potential".


Huge miss by me, for some reason I confused signing dates with draft dates, that makes a big difference, Rizzo's drafts do look much better than I was giving him credit for.

Quote:
Successes
1) Brandon Webb - best pitcher in baseball for 4 years.
2) Dan Uggla - Mediocre 2b in Rizzo's system who became allstar after Rizzo left and we left him unprotected.
3) Mark Reynolds - Still has all-star potential, but hasn't performed consistently yet and maybe his low contact rate makes that impossible.
4) Snyder - No allstar but probably exceeded expectations.
5) Carlos Gonzalez - Has been pretty good, not sure if he'll be a regular all-star but still has that potential.
6) Brett Anderson - Top 25 highest value pitchers in baseball last year at age 22.
7) Max Scherzer - He still can't get into the 6th inning, but is very effective until then, and an above average starter, 41st most valuable ranking last year inflated given some pretty soft opposing lineups.

Disappointments
1) Conor Jackson - Good hitter, poor defender at first, got hurt too much. 2) Carlos Quentin - Sandwiched one great season between a bunch of injuries and sucky seasons, has been terrible ever since 2008.
3) Stephen Drew - Rated top position player in draft, fell to us, but has never been more than a league average player.
4) Micah Owings - Good at what he wasn't being paid to do, lousy pitcher with us and Cincinnati.
5) Bonifacio - Fast but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.
6) Chad Tracy - One great season, a career of mediocrity.
7) Scott Hairson- Hate to call him a disappointment, but once expectations were higher than just being a decent outfielder.
Montero - Talent is there at the plate, can't stay healthy.
9) Parra - a 4th outfielder in the making.
10) Ryal - a fringe MLB player in his prime.

Josh's tenure

Successes
- None yet.


Potential
1) Jarrod Parker - Dominant minor league starter at a very young age, and possible rotation member this year until he had Tommy John last year. Future star potential.
2) Dan Schlereth - Already traded, amazing k numbers, awful BB numbers, potential star closer if he solves the 2nd problem.
3) Clay Zavada - Picked out of no-where in the 30th round, became dominant minor league left handed reliever, then was lost to Tommy John surgery this year (one of the hidden blows to our bullpen).
4) Bryan Augenstein - Shot up through system with command, but foundered when he hit the majors and in AAA, he might not have the stuff. But he's still only 23.
5) John Hester - Decent bat for a catcher, but not likely to be a star, just a useful backup, already 26.


Again, one thing that makes Josh's production look worse is the short time since he was hired. But right now it looks like Hester is the best position player they've been able to develop, and that's damning. IKen Kendrick claimed it was a big reason for the dismissal, t's hard to dismiss the criticism.

But I missed two other factors that I think handicapped Josh. First was draft position. Here is our draft picks in the first/supplemental rounds the last 10 years.

2000 - None
2001 - 22nd
2002 - 27th
2003 - 19th & 29th
2004 - 15th
2005 - 1st & 31st
2006 - 11th & 34th
----------------
2007 - 9th, 50th, and 71st
2008 - 26th, 43rd
2009 - 16th, 17th, 41st, 45th.

Rizzo had 9 picks in the first/supplemental rounds in 7 years, Josh 9 picks in only 3 years. Again, most of his picks have been in the system for only a couple years (Borchering) so it's impossible to tell if they are all busts or some will develop.

But Josh only had one pick higher than 16th, a 9th, while Rizzo had a #1, 11th, and 15th. Over half of Josh's picks were 41st or higher, the mean on Rizzo's is 22nd. Josh has gotten higher volume per year, but lower potential per pick. Rizzo's first year he didn't have a pick, but he averaged slightly better position than Josh (15.7 vs 17), and that carries forward to all rounds.

But more important I think is another factor. Rizzo's owner was Colangelo (for the most part), Josh's was Kendrick. Remember the organizations focus on lower ceiling, but more predictable (i.e. older), draftees a few years ago? Was that a conscious decision, or was it spin because the organisation's small payroll couldn't handle the signing bonuses the high ceiling guys would demand?

Rizzo fell into both Upton and Drew. Drew was the consensus top position player in his draft, but fell to 15th because of his signing demands. Rizzo had an owner (Colangelo) willing to meet those demands (and it got Colangelo canned). Upton was the consensus top pick, and Rizzo's ownership at the time (Moorad/Kendrick) hadn't yet tighted the money spigot like it's been done since. I wonder what will happen if we get the top pick next year, will we pay the price, or do what San Diego did when Drew was available, take a lower ceiling guy who is much more affordable (and who busted very quickly).

So when Ken Kendrick criticizes the team's farm system, he's right. It's okay for pitching talent, but terrible on position talent and looks like one of baseballs worst right now. Josh has to take all the blame for the picks he made.

But the other person who deserves blame is Ken Kendrick himself. His skinflint budget drove a drafting process that eliminated high ceiling guys. His budget also drove decisions like the Haren trade, where the team's only option for adding a good starter to what was viewed as a contending team was to raid the farm to get the cost controlled Haren. If this team just had a league average budget in above average media market, that $20m meant they could have traded a lot less to get a starter on a more expensive contract, or gotten one out of free agency without trading anyone.

My guess is that our draft budget is going to mean risk averse picks in the future, but our crappy major league clubs will mean much better draft position, hopefully they'll offset and the next guy will get a little lucky with his picks.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bobster wrote:
i have a hard time criticizing Montero for a few injuries if you're not going to do the same with Parker. and i wouldn't hold a GM or scout accountable for injuries unless they're re-existing or the product of something like Max's delivery motion.

i would include drew and montero among the successes, although none of the players other than webb and uggla have been all-stars.


We are look at results, and there are those who believe that health is a talent. Carlos Quentin was the minor league leader in HBP, it's not surprising that he's had trouble staying healthy the way he hugs the plate.

In Parker's case, TJ is often fully recoverable, and I believe he's the highest pick Josh had, so you have to mention him as a potential asset given his minor league performance so far. Montero isn't potential any more, he's in the prime of his career and still can't stay healthy. He's proven he can hit, but he was a highly touted minor league catcher, and he hasn't lived up to it in actual production.

Drew is a roughly a league average player. He is also a one of the biggest draft disappointment's we've had. He was the consensus top position player, so highly touted that Colangelo greenlighted a $5.5M deal that was one of the biggest in draft history. We only paid that bonus with the expectation he'd be a well above average player, because the contract also accelerated his major league service time, and first arbitration awards. League average is nearly failure given that cost, which will soon rise rapidly and is going to force his trade.

If the team knew he'd develop this way, they would not have drafted him, they would have happily given $1.5M to some other mid-first rounder, and if he turned out to be as good as Drew it would have been a solid win with lots of cheap years.

Quote:

the real problem with this team had been player development. to many of the players have arrived at the majors with huge holes in their games (the most obvious being the enormous strikeout rates for upton and reynolds)


Rizzo ran the farm for most of those high strike-out guys like Quentin and Reynolds.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Goat wrote:
Miguel Montero is a disappointment, but John Hester is Potential? Montero is 2 months older than Hester and has produced a WAR of 5 higher than Hester.


Again, the expectations were entirely different for the two. Hester was a 13th rounder, Montero was a scout find, a free agent. While in the farm system Montero was touted as top catching prospect.

Quote:
Tracy had a great year which is more than a lot of the current farm system guys can say. We did get 7.7 WAR from him at league minimum prices. It isn't Rizzo's fault that the team signed him to a long term deal.


Tracy's only good year was the worst part, it forced the team into signing that deal, or risk rapidly rising arbitration awards eating up payroll. You can't spin the fact that he nearly worthless almost every year since his signing as anything other than a huge disappointment. Esp. again as his huge year was given as proof of Rizzo's acumen and great development program.
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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbacks watcher wrote:
Don't forget Quentin was drafted, signed, and developed under Rizzo.

I agree biggest problem has been in developing players under Hinch/Byrnes. Big holes in hitting and playing fundamentals.


Quentin has been a huge failure, probably the least valuable left fielder in baseball the last two years. He did have one great year at the plate, but also strikes out at a high rate, and is a terrible fielder. Where was Rizzo then, esp. when Carlos cultivated a stance that has him hover over the plate and constantly get hurt?

And where was Rizzo with Reynolds?

Maybe it's not his fault. Maybe players are who they are, and coaching can't change the fundamental makeup of a player, just tweak it around the edges?
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Quentin has been a huge failure, probably the least valuable left fielder in baseball the last two years. He did have one great year at the plate, but also strikes out at a high rate, and is a terrible fielder. Where was Rizzo then, esp. when Carlos cultivated a stance that has him hover over the plate and constantly get hurt?


This part isn't true.

His career K% is 15.3%, vs. Lg avg 17.4%

This year only 14.4%
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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb got his history assbackwards.

Rizzo actually drafted both Scherzer and Anderson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&

And how exactly does Montero deserve the label "can't stay healthy"? A fractured thumb on a freak play and torn meniscus make him injury prone?

And let me not belabor this point, but it's idiotic to call Montero a bust while signing praises to Hester? Idiotic might be too kind of a word.

As far as I can tell, the only player on the 25 man roster who was a Josh Byrnes pick is Enright. Big fucking deal. A fringe fifth starter.

Josh Byrnes made a few smart trades soon after he became the GM. Then he spent years pissing away the talent he inherited from Rizzo.

That itself is a good enough reason to have him fired...
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
ValueArb got his history assbackwards.

Rizzo actually drafted both Scherzer and Anderson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&

And how exactly does Montero deserve the label "can't stay healthy"? A fractured thumb on a freak play and torn meniscus make him injury prone?

And let me not belabor this point, but it's idiotic to call Montero a bust while signing praises to Hester? Idiotic might be too kind of a word.

As far as I can tell, the only player on the 25 man roster who was a Josh Byrnes pick is Enright. Big fucking deal. A fringe fifth starter.

Josh Byrnes made a few smart trades soon after he became the GM. Then he spent years pissing away the talent he inherited from Rizzo.

That itself is a good enough reason to have him fired...


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ValueArb
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
ValueArb got his history assbackwards.

Rizzo actually drafted both Scherzer and Anderson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&

And how exactly does Montero deserve the label "can't stay healthy"? A fractured thumb on a freak play and torn meniscus make him injury prone?

And let me not belabor this point, but it's idiotic to call Montero a bust while signing praises to Hester? Idiotic might be too kind of a word.

As far as I can tell, the only player on the 25 man roster who was a Josh Byrnes pick is Enright. Big fucking deal. A fringe fifth starter.

Josh Byrnes made a few smart trades soon after he became the GM. Then he spent years pissing away the talent he inherited from Rizzo.

That itself is a good enough reason to have him fired...


Read the f'n thread and maybe I'll respond.
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The Goat
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 3:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at Levski's link it appears Hester is a Rizzo guy too.
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dbacks08
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
ValueArb got his history assbackwards.

Rizzo actually drafted both Scherzer and Anderson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&



This point has already been made and responded too. Keep up with the thread.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 05, 2010 7:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ValueArb wrote:
levski wrote:
ValueArb got his history assbackwards.

Rizzo actually drafted both Scherzer and Anderson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_year&team_ID=ARI&year_ID=2006&draft_type=junreg&

And how exactly does Montero deserve the label "can't stay healthy"? A fractured thumb on a freak play and torn meniscus make him injury prone?

And let me not belabor this point, but it's idiotic to call Montero a bust while signing praises to Hester? Idiotic might be too kind of a word.

As far as I can tell, the only player on the 25 man roster who was a Josh Byrnes pick is Enright. Big fucking deal. A fringe fifth starter.

Josh Byrnes made a few smart trades soon after he became the GM. Then he spent years pissing away the talent he inherited from Rizzo.

That itself is a good enough reason to have him fired...


Read the f'n thread and maybe I'll respond.


Pass.
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 2010 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wasn't JB instructed to go the "win-now" route during/after the 2007 season with the EB extension, and the Dan Haren trade that sent the bulk of our high-ceiling talent away for the two-headed monster of Webb/Haren?

One of the reasons that Kendrick pointed to, the depleted farm system, was his own doing.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 2010 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dirtygary wrote:
Wasn't JB instructed to go the "win-now" route during/after the 2007 season with the EB extension, and the Dan Haren trade that sent the bulk of our high-ceiling talent away for the two-headed monster of Webb/Haren?

One of the reasons that Kendrick pointed to, the depleted farm system, was his own doing.


That's how I recall it too. And let's not forget that, as much as current owners would want to blame Moorad and Moorad alone for the Eric Byrnes extension, both Kendrick and Hall were lining up to have Flipper's babies at the time. It was all for the fans, of course... Wink
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 2010 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you go back a few years there were not many who did not like Josh Byrnes but I never was a fan of his. At least I was able to get that right. Smile
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 06, 2010 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dirtygary wrote:
Wasn't JB instructed to go the "win-now" route during/after the 2007 season with the EB extension, and the Dan Haren trade that sent the bulk of our high-ceiling talent away for the two-headed monster of Webb/Haren?

One of the reasons that Kendrick pointed to, the depleted farm system, was his own doing.


The only honest thing they said regarding their reasons for letting JB go were the comments about the relationship between JB and Hall.

Of course the farm system was depleted, the team had no money. The only way to get new blood was to trade from the farm system.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
dirtygary wrote:
Wasn't JB instructed to go the "win-now" route during/after the 2007 season with the EB extension, and the Dan Haren trade that sent the bulk of our high-ceiling talent away for the two-headed monster of Webb/Haren?

One of the reasons that Kendrick pointed to, the depleted farm system, was his own doing.


That's how I recall it too. And let's not forget that, as much as current owners would want to blame Moorad and Moorad alone for the Eric Byrnes extension, both Kendrick and Hall were lining up to have Flipper's babies at the time. It was all for the fans, of course... Wink

But JB had 3 drafts to replenish the system!! Players never take longer than 3 years to become MLB-ready!!! Rolling Eyes


The most disappointing aspect of the whole situation is how ownership has refused to accept the appropriate level of blame for the position the organization is in, or even begin to acknowledge the level of dysfunction that has existed on that end since the Colang-a-coup. In hindsight, it was a very difficult spot for a new, young GM. It would have been one thing if JB failed on his own without ownership meddling in baseball operations, but ownership dictated the terms of organizational direction that ultimately handcuffed and undermined their very own GM. Ownership lacked patience, discipline, restraint, and commitment to the original plan that the GM and ownership jointly formed, and time and time again, they have taken their eyes off the prize - the long-term health and sustainability of the organization.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 8:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps one of the big reasons JB promoted AJ to manager was to get one of his guys in a position of power to help him not feel so isolated. If so understandable but still a bad reason to make that hire.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CoJackFan wrote:
If you go back a few years there were not many who did not like Josh Byrnes but I never was a fan of his. At least I was able to get that right. Smile


Get what right?
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 07, 2010 10:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baldmaga wrote:
CoJackFan wrote:
If you go back a few years there were not many who did not like Josh Byrnes but I never was a fan of his. At least I was able to get that right. Smile

Get what right?

was wondering the same thing
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